Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten.

The Minnesota GOP holds many seats not winnable in a non-wave year, the state party is broke, and their legislative leaders are less popular than Rick Scott and John Kasich are in their respective states. It's going to take a massive turnaround for them to hold.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html

It's not that in-depth and their prediction map has a stupid layout but I guess it's something.

Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up

They seem to be a bit too conservative in expecting incumbents to lose, at least in Minnesota. They're right that the House is more likely to flip than the Senate, but it's tough to see the GOP holding either. And the mention of redistricting is weird since the map was drawn by a court, population redistribution may help the Republicans a little, but they still hold too many seats that they really shouldn't be able to outside a wave year on paper.