www.electoral-vote.com has a new site (user search)
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Author Topic: www.electoral-vote.com has a new site  (Read 2527 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: May 29, 2012, 08:35:34 AM »

and they also started their daily updates and have an updated EV map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2012, 08:41:21 AM »

They have about the same map as I have:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145625.msg3307426#msg3307426

The only difference is CO, where they have a tie because of the Purple poll - whereas I used an average of the PPP poll and the Purple poll (they were conducted at about the same period).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2012, 03:58:03 AM »

I'm not familiar with the site, but was it accurate for 2008?

The site was created about 9 years ago ahead of the 2004 election. They are basically doing what we do here: Posting the latest polls for each state and creating a Electoral Map (sometimes averaging the latest polls if multiple polls have been conducted over the same time period).

In 2004, they predicted Kerry 262, Bush 261 (their final report on Nov. 2):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/nov/nov02.html

In 2008, the predicted Obama 353, McCain 174 and Missouri tied. And they only got IN wrong, but of course within the MoE:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html

This map seems very pro-Obama, but in a bizarre sort of way. Oregon is barely Democrat, while Ohio is lean?

This is because SurveyUSA had OR as Obama+4 in their last poll, while Marist had Obama up 6 in their last OH poll.
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