www.electoral-vote.com has a new site

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

yeah ok, Romney is going to do better in Oregon than Ohio. Solid polls there.

The outliers get flushed out by the time the conventions role around.

EV has been one of my favorite sites. The change looks great!

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I'm not familiar with the site, but was it accurate for 2008?

He missed Indiana and had Missouri tied on election night in 2008. So 49/51 (or 50/51 if you did count MO as essentially a tie )

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He aggregates polls, and has developed his own model. In 2004, there was a poll that gave Kerry a minuscule 2% lead in CA but he put it in regardless. The outlier polls tend to disappear or get averaged out as the frequency of polls increases in the fall.