MO-PPP: All tied up in both primary and general

[RogueBeaver]

Too many to list.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_529.pdf

[Miles]

I actaually think Tester is better-off to win reelection than McCaskill.

[RogueBeaver]

So McCaskill is down by a few points?

[Miles]

So McCaskill is down by a few points?

She's tied at 44 with Steelman, down 44-45 to Akin and leads Brunner 46-44.

In the primary, its 28% Steelman, 25% Brunner, 23% Aiken.

[RogueBeaver]

So McCaskill is down by a few points?

She's tied at 44 with Steelman, down 44-45 to Akin and leads Brunner 46-44.

In the primary, its 28% Steelman, 25% Brunner, 23% Aiken.

I meant with a corrected sample. A sample 5 points more D than 2006 makes zero sense.

[morgieb]

How is McCaskill struggling so bad?

I think she may narrow if she can attack the sh**t out of Akin or even Steeleman.

[timothyinMD]

McCaskill is doomed for the same reason Blanche Lincoln was.  The state is trending Republican and they don't want a Dem senator anymore.  Look for the republican, likely Steelman, to pull away in September and defeat McCaskill by 7-9 points

[RogueBeaver]

McCaskill is doomed for the same reason Blanche Lincoln was.  The state is trending Republican and they don't want a Dem senator anymore.  Look for the republican, likely Steelman, to pull away in September and defeat McCaskill by 7-9 points

Maybe not that much, but otherwise agreed. Steelman might lose the primary at this rate and Brunner is no Ron Johnson. Serviceable but would need some work. Akin would be like Berg- making the race harder than it should be on paper.

That said, I can't bring myself to dislike McCaskill. Always had time for her.

[Holmes]

Lincoln was trailing 20 points by this time in 2010. Be realistic.

[The Mikado]

McCaskill is doomed for the same reason Blanche Lincoln was.  The state is trending Republican and they don't want a Dem senator anymore.  Look for the republican, likely Steelman, to pull away in September and defeat McCaskill by 7-9 points

The state is trending away from the Ds, but not anywhere near to the same extent as Arkansas.

McCatskill may very well lose (I'd give her a 40% survival chance, and that's only as high as it is because she's a superior politician in terms of electioneering), but it's not a done deal, and MO is hardly unwinnable for Dems.  It might be unwinnable for Obama, but not for down-ticket Dems.