Predict TX

[Tender Branson]

DEMs:

74% Barack Obama
12% Darcy Richardson
  7% John Wolfe
  7% Bob Ely

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/may29_161_state.htm

GOPers:

65% Mitt Romney
11% Ron Paul
11% Rick Santorum
  9% Newt Gingrich
  2% Jon Huntsman
  1% Michele Bachmann
  0% Buddy Roemer
  0% John Davis
  1% Uncommitted

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/may29_160_state.htm

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Perry isn't on the ballot in Texas? Damn. Would have been interesting to see how many votes he pulled.

[Eraserhead]

Obama should end his string of recent embarrassments with at least 75% here. Romney will be in the high 60s again.

[Tender Branson]

Why is there an uncommitted option for the GOP but not the Dems ?

And why is Perry's name not on the ballot ? Was he removed, or didn't he qualify because he dropped out before the deadline ? If he was removed, why were Bachmann, Huntsman and the likes not removed ?

[Taft]

Perry isn't on the ballot in Texas? Damn. Would have been interesting to see how many votes he pulled.

That would have been.  I'm guessing 25-30%, with a gutting of all the other non-Romneys save Paul.  What's more surprising is that he isn't on the ballot but Bachmann and Huntsman are, given that IIRC they were both less organized than he was and both dropped out before he did.

Just to take a swing at this:
70% Barack Obama
[30% "Other"]
16% John Wolfe
  8% Darcy Richardson
  6% Bob Ely

Thoughts:
I consider the Obama/Other prediction to be my main prediction, and I'm going to take a bit of a wild bet here that "not Obama" does better than it should because of the publicity over the last three weeks.  Basically, you may get some more disgruntled (registered) Democrats turning out to "stick it to Obama".  As a subset of this, I'm going to predict that Obama loses a lot of low-population counties in the northern Panhandle and in the northeast part of the state, but that (per his results elsewhere) he gets "bailed out" in a couple of the cities (and probably along the Mexican border as well).

I'm putting the result between LA/AL and AR/KY because on the one hand, there's a significant minority population...but on the other hand, that didn't exactly help Obama avoid losing 19% in Alabama, and the "rural white" share of the party is probably a shade higher than in a few of the other states (AL leaps to mind).  Likewise, the presence of a "live" primary for Senate isn't likely to help Obama...looking over the platforms, the only committed lefty in the race seems to be Sean Hubbard (with both Yarbrough and Sadler at least clearly not doing so).

As to why I put Wolfe so high versus the others: He's the one who gave Obama the lump in AR last week, so I figure he's the one who some folks will think of when they cast their "not Obama" vote, particularly in the parts of the state bordering AR.  Still...all of that is random stabbing, and I could see Wolfe vacuuming up more of the "not Obama" vote (or less of it).

For the record, if Chet Edwards or another Dem clearly of his mold were on the ballot, I'd be putting the not-Obama numbers a lot higher based on who would be likely to turn out.

GOP:
65% Mitt Romney
15% Ron Paul
10% Rick Santorum
  9% Newt Gingrich
  0% Jon Huntsman
  0% Michele Bachmann
  0% Buddy Roemer
  0% John Davis
  1% Uncommitted

My main difference here is that I think Paul gets a bit of a bump over his performances elsewhere from it being his homestate on the one hand, and in part of it from it being his home district.  Frankly, I think he gets about a third of the vote in his district, maybe as much as 40% in parts, on a combination of the race being "over" (vs. Huckabee still being in it at that point in '08) and it being his "home base" (for comparison, he got between 10 and 15% in the counties there, and again...you still had a decently active race between McCain and Huckabee then).

Edit: Realized that I had carried over a large Huntsman share from the initial chart.  Nope, I don't expect him to break asterisk territory.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Dems

Obama  77%
others   23%

GOP

Romney     61%
Paul           16
Santorum   12
Gingrich       7
Uncomitted   2
others          2

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama will get >70 or 80% in Texas. Sure, there's parts of Eastern Texas where the Democrats are like those in Arkansas, but he has blacks, Hispanics, and white urban liberals to completely negate them.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, but Texas is a state where most of the types that would vote against him in a primary are Republicans by now. East Texas just doesn't have enough people to stop Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, El Paso, and the super-Democratic Mexican counties in the South.

[The Mikado]

Romney 69%, Paul 16%, Other 15%

Obama 73%, Other 27%

Even if Perry's name were on the ballot, he'd be lucky to break 10%.  The TXGOP isn't that fond of him.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Democrats

Obama 71%
others 29%

Republicans

Romney 66%
Paul 15%
Others 19%

[Tender Branson]

Another prediction:

Mitt Romney will be declared the presumptive nominee by all networks at 2am on Wednesday.

Usually, he has around 1080 delegates right now at all of these networks and needs just 60 more.

[Indy Texas]

Obama will do better in Texas than he did in the Appalachian states. The Democratic Party here has been more or less pared down to core groups that like him: blacks, Hispanics, urbanites, first-gen immigrants. He'll lose a few of the "cotton counties" in West Texas, but that won't hurt his margins so much as it will just make the results map look more interesting.

Romney will likely have a better night as well. There is a US Senate primary that gives independents a reason to vote in the GOP primary. There are also fairly competitive local races in a number of well-to-do suburban counties that contain the sort of voters Romney does well with (Williamson, Montgomery, and Tarrant Counties, to name a few). Again, the tiny populations you're dealing with in West Texas and the Panhandle mean you'll have a couple of oddball county results out there (i.e. Ron Paul winning someplace where only twenty people voted).

Dewhurst will finish first in the Senate primary and will face Cruz in a run-off in July.

[RogueBeaver]

What ITX said.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama won 88.7% of the early vote.

[Nhoj]

Obama won 88.7% of the early vote.

hes even not doing terrible in some of the west texas counties that have alot of democrats who vote republican, except king county where hes only getting one vote of course .

[old timey villain]

I don't know why anybody is surprised by this. Texas is not Oklahoma. Nearly all the conservatives vote Republican and are registered as such.

[Eraserhead]

88% does seem pretty damn impressive in comparison to his recent results but yeah, Obama was never going to do too poorly here. He very nearly beat Clinton in the primary here in 2008 and won the caucus easily enough. He's always been pretty popular with Texas Democrats. 

Ol' Mitt still can't seem to break 70% anywhere.

Also, not a particularly impressive showing for Paul. He did terribly here in 2008 too though... so yeah.

[timothyinMD]

88% does seem pretty damn impressive in comparison to his recent results but yeah, Obama was never going to do too poorly here. He very nearly beat Clinton in the primary here in 2008 and won the caucus easily enough. He's always been pretty popular with Texas Democrats.  

Ol' Mitt still can't seem to break 70% anywhere.

Also, not a particularly impressive showing for Paul. He did terribly here in 2008 too though... so yeah.

Everyone who posted predictions underestimated Mitt.  Who cares if he breaks 70.  70.01 isn't much different than 68.98.. and if he'd gotten 70.1, then the dems would be saying.. "Mitt can't even break 75"

Ron Paul is still very much a competitor and his supports are pretty active

in 08, McCain got the nod so early that McCain and Paul were the only names on the ballot in Oregon, Nebraska, New Mexico, Idaho, Montana.. and Romney wasn't on the ballot in Penn, N.C.

Even so, McCain only got 47.25% of the 08 primary popular vote. Romney's already at 48.1 with 6 states to go

With the Texas Dem primary, I knew Obama would do well.  Unlike N.C., Kent, W.V., Okla.. they don't have party registration

[rbt48]

How did Ron Paul do in his own CD?  Probably not a straight-forward question due to redistricting, but any insight would be interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like he got 25% or so in his CD.

[timothyinMD]

To be fair to Ron Paul, he only represented 1/32nd of his home state.  Its not as if he was the poster boy for Texas..   He did reasonably well in his home area it looks like. 20-25% is respectable.  Looks like Travis Co was his best, but that's not surprising

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, it looks like he broke 20% in the old TX-25 too, he did (relatively) very well in Central Texas.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results


How did Huntsman come in second in Rockwall and tie for second in Hansford ?!

[Indy Texas]

Obama won 88.7% of the early vote.

hes even not doing terrible in some of the west texas counties that have alot of democrats who vote republican, except king county where hes only getting one vote of course .

Texas Monthly did an article about King County shortly after the '08 election. McCain had gotten >90% of the vote there and the author attempted to find someone in the county who would admit to having voted for Obama. The only one he found was the county Democratic Party chair, who also mentioned they voted for John Edwards in the primary.