OH-Rasmussen: Romney takes small lead

[Tender Branson]

Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

[NVGonzalez]

I see Scottie is at it again.

[Miles]

I see Scottie is at it again.

Sometimes I wonder if he believes his own polls.

[Brittain33]

Thank you (R)asmussen...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I gurantee Scotty fudged these numbers to create a headline. It breaks off from his previous pattern of Obama crushing Romney, while the Republican challenger crushed the Democratic incumbent. 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Sigh.

[tmthforu94]

Rasmussen has been very consistent with other pollsters in Ohio, showing Obama with a moderate lead. It's certainly good news for Romney that he's now tied here.

There's usually not much joking at Rasmussen's reputation the many times his polling is consistent with others (which normally are). It's just whenever he shows Romney leading in a swing state.

Also, I'd hardly call Obama's small leads in Ohio "crushing".

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So Obama's actually leading by three or so.

[Kevin]

Rasmussen has been very consistent with other pollsters in Ohio, showing Obama with a moderate lead. It's certainly good news for Romney that he's now tied here.

There's usually not much joking at Rasmussen's reputation the many times his polling is consistent with others (which normally are). It's just whenever he shows Romney leading in a swing state.

Also, I'd hardly call Obama's small leads in Ohio "crushing".

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

538 and electoralvote.com would like to disagree with you. They had a 3/4 point bias in favor of Republican candidates in 2010. We have to see if he's fixed his issue.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Rasmussen has been very consistent with other pollsters in Ohio, showing Obama with a moderate lead. It's certainly good news for Romney that he's now tied here.

There's usually not much joking at Rasmussen's reputation the many times his polling is consistent with others (which normally are). It's just whenever he shows Romney leading in a swing state.

Also, I'd hardly call Obama's small leads in Ohio "crushing".

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

False, they aren't viewed as accurate by any reputable site (many "serious" sites are awful). As far as I know, even many Republicans view Rass poll results as slanted and strange.

[tmthforu94]

Rasmussen has been very consistent with other pollsters in Ohio, showing Obama with a moderate lead. It's certainly good news for Romney that he's now tied here.

There's usually not much joking at Rasmussen's reputation the many times his polling is consistent with others (which normally are). It's just whenever he shows Romney leading in a swing state.

Also, I'd hardly call Obama's small leads in Ohio "crushing".

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

False, they aren't viewed as accurate by any reputable site (many "serious" sites are awful). As far as I know, even many Republicans view Rass poll results as slanted and strange.

In the past couple months, I would argue Rasmussen's polling has looked more "on target" than PPP's. The only outlier Ras has had was probably the Romney +8 in NC - the rest of their recent polling looks entirely plausible. In comparision, PPP has Obama ahead in Missouri (which is probably less plausible than Romney ahead in Ohio), had Obama up 13 in New Hampshire, 12 in Virginia, and 10 in Iowa, which is contradictory to other polling in those states. If anyone believes those numbers are true, in comparision to what national numbers are showing, well, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Safe D.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

538 and electoralvote.com would like to disagree with you. They had a 3/4 point bias in favor of Republican candidates in 2010. We have to see if he's fixed his issue.

Like electoralvote.com is actually accurate(Their predictions for 2004, 2006, and 08 were all way off). Plus if my memory serves me correct they use Zogby's outfit as their source.

[DrScholl]

This is a pretty weak lead for Romney coming from Rasmussen.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

538 and electoralvote.com would like to disagree with you. They had a 3/4 point bias in favor of Republican candidates in 2010. We have to see if he's fixed his issue.

Like electoralvote.com is actually accurate(Their predictions for 2004, 2006, and 08 were all way off). Plus if my memory serves me correct they use Zogby's outfit as their source.

Um...

2004: 47/51; His first time running the site. The most egregious error was Florida; this was his worst year.

2006: Every Senate election correctly predicted, missed the House by 8 seats (although correctly predicted Republicans would have 0 pick-ups).

2008: 49/51: Had McCain winning Indiana (Obama's victory was a surprise to many) and Missouri was a tie (which considering the final result, wasn't too far from the truth).

His polling model seems to be quite good.