How likely is this map if Romney wins?

[5280]

How likely is this map if Romney wins?

Obama - 266
Romney - 272

[Cory]

I don't see Obama losing WI if he wins VA and IA.

[Donerail]

Swap WI and VA and it's what a Romney victory is most likely to look like.

[Supersonic]

Swap WI and VA and it's what a Romney victory is most likely to look like.

This.

If Romney can't pull Virginia, then I don't see how he wins Wisconsin, or even Colorado.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It requires the Walker recall to have considerably more impact in November than I expect.  Also, I'm dubious that Romney picks up Colorado while losing Virginia.  There ain't that many Mormons in western Colorado (mainly because there ain't that many people).

[GLPman]

While the recall election has certainly mobilized Republicans voters in Wisconsin, I sincerely doubt that a) the recall's outcome will affect the presidential election and b) Wisconsin will go to Romney in November.

Nonetheless, let's say I'm wrong and Romney somehow wins Wisconsin. If this election proves to be a 2004-style election, I doubt he'll win Wisconsin while losing Virginia. The only other possibility for a Romney win in Wisconsin is a 2008-style victory, or larger, over Obama.

[AmericanNation]

It is possible that Obama could dominate the DC 'bubble' that spreads into the Virginia suburbs (and that racks up enough votes to win VA narrowly) despite losing the rest of the country...  
--So, in that scenario Romney would probably win IA, and NV as well as OH and WI.  

I don't think that will happen, but it could theoretically.  VA will probably move out of tossup and into the Romney column soon.      

As for Wisconsin, their is indication that Romney is drawing even despite running zero ads and not visiting the state.  A Walker victory will further cement the alienation the middle has with democrat incompetence.  You might not realize that the ugly dark side of the democrat party has been on full display here for over a year.  Walker could become a great needle moving spokesman for Romney after he wins --something he hasn't done once yet, for obvious reasons.  52%-53% is with Walker and if he delivers the state for the presidential nominee he will have a feather in his cap that Tommy Thompson never had (after the Reagan era)(although he got really close for W.)  ...Speaking of which, Tommy is probably going to get out of the GOP primary and will be on the ballot at the same time as a presidential election for the first time (US Senate).  I just don't think it is a likely scenario that the state re-elects Walker, elects Thompson Senator, and votes for Obama.  We have a tradition of doing crap like that and it's possible, but I just don't think it is likely this year.  I heard Reince Priebus say on a call today: "I don't know when people are going to start realizing that the Wisconsin GOP is pretty good at what it does.  They know who their people are, they get them out to vote, they win elections."               

[TJ in Oregon]

The problem with assuming Romney will win WI in November if Walker survives the recall is that the turnout between the two races will likely be very different. The student body at UW Madison will not be on campus and thus will not be energized against Walker in the same way they will be energized against Romney and the black voters in Millwaukee will likely turn out much more for President Obama than they will in a June special election for Barrett. This special election will probably look a lot like the special election for State Supreme Court race where the Democrats turned out in Madison but not so much in Millwaukee where their base consists of poor minoritis instead of the political activists in Madison.

[AmericanNation]

TJ, yea OR the fever pitch they have been running at for 1.5 years that has produced failure after failure might cause a collapse of turnout for a while.  They need to spend some time in the wilderness for everybody's good.  Renewal takes some time.       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney will pickup NH before WI and win VA before winning CO and that what a Romney victory looks like.

[Gass3268]

AmericanNation: Out of curiosity, where do you live in Wisconsin? I'm currently living in Madison, but I am originally from Cottage Grove.

[AmericanNation]

AmericanNation: Out of curiosity, where do you live in Wisconsin? I'm currently living in Madison, but I am originally from Cottage Grove.

Originally from Waukesha, currently live in Washington County, lived in Milwaukee and Madison for brief stints. 

[old timey villain]

Wisconsin is interesting to me and unique from most states in that the rural areas are more Democratic and the Suburban areas are more Republican. Minnesota is also like this to an extent.

Can anybody explain to me why this is?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wisconsin is interesting to me and unique from most states in that the rural areas are more Democratic and the Suburban areas are more Republican. Minnesota is also like this to an extent.

Can anybody explain to me why this is?

Many rural areas are mining/manufacturing areas, and thus heavily unionized.

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin is interesting to me and unique from most states in that the rural areas are more Democratic and the Suburban areas are more Republican. Minnesota is also like this to an extent.

Can anybody explain to me why this is?

I can speak for Wisconsin and it may be similar for Minnesota.

Your Statement isn't exactly true.  
To start with a given that the Suburban/Exurban Greater Milwaukee area is STRONGLY Republican for a number of reasons.  one is partly do to a 'sorting' process where people flee democrat/socialist policies across the Milwaukee county line.  124th street (the county line with Waukesha county) actually has different voting patterns on one side vs the other.  

Dane county is heavily democratic due to the Capitol-public employee concentration, flagship university etc.  

"Rural" Wisconsin is almost entirely Republican, but much less so than the WOW counties.  It is an old (and pretty good) rule that if a democrat doesn't get 60-65% plus in Milwaukee County their isn't enough votes left in the state for them to win.    

 This is sometimes skewed by:
1) some small to medium sized towns in the middle of rural areas that have old industrial/Union histories-traditions.  These towns also sometimes have a quasi powerful public employee base.  Miniature machines had developed on and off randomly here, but Republican politicians can also dominate.        
2) The 'Western' part of the state between Madison and Lacrosse is the only "Rural" area that trends democrat.  It does have those towns I just talked about but, I attribute this tendency toward 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas.'  They went Went 47% for Walker in 2010, but had often swung hard for a dem like Feingold.  They have trended toward the GOP, but are moving painfully slow and could relapse at any time.  
2b) The far NorthWest has a smaller, but similar phenomenon to point 2 only it's 'Finnish Classic ethnic settlement areas.'  

I suspect MN has this same phenomenon as they have a higher Scandinavian population.  

The 1920's Progressive history of the LaFollet's in Wisconsin and Farmer–Labor in MN respectively may still play a role on the periphery.  

So You have:
Democrat       - Core            - Heavy
Republican     - adj. subs     - lean
Republican     - subs            - Heavy
Republican     - exoburbs    - lean to strong
Republican     - Rural           - lean
Democrat       - periphery    - lean to strong
                    

  

[tpfkaw]

Wisconsin is interesting to me and unique from most states in that the rural areas are more Democratic and the Suburban areas are more Republican. Minnesota is also like this to an extent.

That's not *that* unusual; even in your own state suburban Atlanta is the most Republican region (and one of the most Republican areas of the country, too).

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin is interesting to me and unique from most states in that the rural areas are more Democratic and the Suburban areas are more Republican. Minnesota is also like this to an extent.

Can anybody explain to me why this is?

Many rural areas are mining/manufacturing areas, and thus heavily unionized.

...and old timber areas settled by Scandinavians.  

[Ljube]

These Scandinavians are unlikely to vote for a Mormon.

[BaldEagle1991]

These Scandinavians are unlikely to vote for a Mormon.

Yet they elected an Evangelical Christian.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney      272
Obama       266

[milhouse24]

I think that Ohio and Virginia are intriguing swing states.

Ohio is in the midwest and is slightly more favorable to Obama (from Illinois), but Romney appeals to white catholics in Ohio.  Right now the edge is with Obama.

In Virginia, Obama also has a slight edge from the Democrats in NoVa, but in 2012, George Allen will be running for the Senate again, and that might help Romney (but only if he picks a southern VP).  Virginians may not like the northern Romney now, but hardcore Allen supporters will likely stick with the GOP president instead of Obama (and pro-Kaine) crowd.  Allen is about as hardcore Republican as you can get on social and economic issues.  More Allen supporters will come out for Romney than for Obama, in my opinion.