Euro 2012 - Official Discussion Thread

[GMantis]

And in the good old traditions of these tournaments, the host is already receiving help from the referee...

[GMantis]

Let's remember one thing, folks. If Germany beats Denmark in the last game (which is obviously very likely) Holland only has to beat Portugal by 2 goals to go through. So they're not totally done  yet.

Talking about unlikly results. If Denmark loses with one goal against Germany, while Portugal loses with exactly 1 goal to the Netherlands and Denmark scores at least one goal more than Portugal we are through.

Fx.

Netherlands-Portugal 1-0
Germany-Denmark 2-1

Weird. But not out of the question. I think the Germans will take it easy if they have a 2-1 lead and not push too hard for a third goal.
At the same time Dutch defenders will not make the same mistakes we did and their strikers and offensive midfielders have not been impressive.

If Netherlands beat Portugal and Germany beats Denmark, everyone but Germany ends up on equal points.

First tie-breaker is then goal difference from the games between everyone but Germany. Current standing:

Denmark: 0
Netherlands: -1
Portugal: +1

Denmark obviously won't change here. Since this assumes Netherlands beating Portugal, they either do it by more than 1 goal and go through or by 1 goal and then everyone is tied on this measure.

Second tie-breaker is highest number of goals scored in games excluding Germany.

Denmark: 3
Portugal: 3
Netherlands: 0

If this is to be relevant Netherlands has to beat Portugal by no more than 1 goal. Which leaves 2 possibilities -
           Netherlands wins 1-0 --> Denmark and Portugal tied
           Netherlands win by 1 with Portugal scoring --> Portugal goes through

Third tie-breaker is superior goal difference in all matches. Again, for this to be relevant Netherlands has to win by 1 against Portugal so we know that

Netherlands: -1
Portugal: -1

Denmark is currently at 0 but since this assumes them losing against Germany they would have -1 (at least). So they can at best tie on this statistic.

4th tie-breaker is most goals scored in all matches. Here, again, it assumes that Netherlands beat Portugal 1-0. So we know that

Netherlands: 2
Portugal: 3

Which means that Denmark (currently at 3) would need to score 1 goal to go through on this.

The 5th tie-breaker is UEFA coefficient. This is obviously Holland's.

Note: I'm not sure what the rules are if 1 of the 3 teams is not tied on one of this. I've been assuming they're still counted in the next step.

I think that in such a case, after one of the tied teams in eliminated (Netherlands after step 2), the tie-breaking criteria are reapplied to the other two teams - eliminating Denmark due to their having lost their game to Portugal.

[GMantis]

MATCH SUSPENDED due to weather, the COWARDS.

I don't think that not wanting to get hit by lightning is cowardly.

[GMantis]

Eliminating Italy from the tournament is all in Ireland's hands now, and as we all know, Trapattoni has some experience when it comes to knocking Italy out of tournaments.

Spain's and Croatia's. But I guess they will no more miss the situation than Denmark and Sweden did eight(?) years ago. 2-2 draw and Italy are out.

Oh, and by my count a 4-3 (or 5-4 etc) for Denmark would see Denmark and Germany progress no matter what the Portuguese do. Can't they just abolish the damn stupid direct comparison rule already? It's not working.

But it makes for such bizarre scenarios
And in fact only 3-2 is needed

[GMantis]

Eliminating Italy from the tournament is all in Ireland's hands now, and as we all know, Trapattoni has some experience when it comes to knocking Italy out of tournaments.

Spain's and Croatia's. But I guess they will no more miss the situation than Denmark and Sweden did eight(?) years ago. 2-2 draw and Italy are out.

Oh, and by my count a 4-3 (or 5-4 etc) for Denmark would see Denmark and Germany progress no matter what the Portuguese do. Can't they just abolish the damn stupid direct comparison rule already? It's not working.

But it makes for such bizarre scenarios
And in fact only 3-2 is needed

In case of 3-2, the German and Portuguese result against the Netherlands would be compared as the de facto tiebreaker. There's no further direct comparison of just Germany and Portugal. (Not according to a literal reading of the official rule text, anyways.)

That's not how the rules are interpreted. Otherwise there would not be the danger of Italy being eliminated regardless of their result against Ireland in a case of a 2-2 draw between Spain and Croatia.

[GMantis]

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d) superior goal difference in all the group matches

Portugal +2, Germany +1. Germany eliminated. Spain +4, Croatia +2, Spain group winner.
[/quote]
Since at this point only Portugal and Germany are being compared, "a" would have to be applied first, eliminating Portugal. It makes no sense to apply different criteria to them, even if they were previously tied.

[GMantis]

pretty simple

How can you not like this system
(And it confirms my thinking on the subject )

[GMantis]

Germany just can't get its act together.

Really? From the little I saw from their match, it was mostly played in front of the Danish goal.

[GMantis]

New hope for Netherlands!

[GMantis]

New hope for Netherlands!

...they need three goals in ten minutes.

In hindsight, it was more likely for Portugal to score three goals...

[GMantis]

Yes, the Danes can at least walk out with their heads held high. Unlike some other teams...

[GMantis]

An interesting coincidence:
Yesterday, a Spanish referee greatly helped the German team by not giving a deserved penalty which if converted would have left Germany a goal down with 15 minutes to go.
Today, the decisive Spanish match is being refereed by a German referee...

[GMantis]

I think it's time to admit that this game won't end 2-2.

There is still a chance of a 1-1. Which would also eliminate Italy (under the current score)
Incidentally, I don't the Croatians are still playing defense. Even if they concede a goal, they could still advance if they score just once.

[GMantis]

That is a spectacular goal.

Though offside.

[GMantis]

So if Spain had not been awarded this off-side goal, they would have finished second and if they had reached the semifinal, they would have likely faced Germany. Again, "interesting" decision by the referee...

[GMantis]

But that's what you get with the DFB's best-rated refs, to a man.)

What do you mean by this? Shouldn't a good rating indicate fair refereeing?

[GMantis]

Czech Republic vs. Portugal
Germany vs. Greece
Spain vs. France
England vs. Italy

Spain vs. Portugal
Germany vs. Italy

Germany vs. Spain

[GMantis]

Why are Özil, Khedira and Boateng never singing the national anthem ?

Hmmmm...I think the answer is pretty obvious...

No, please tell me ...

They probably don't really consider themselves German.
Incidentally, the Greeks don't consider Özil German either, considering how their fans boo his every touch of the ball

[GMantis]

Congratulations to Italy! Though they should have won without penalties, what with all those missed chances.

[GMantis]

Well, congratulations to Italy! I supported Germany, but Italy certainly deserved this -  they didn't dominate but that is irrelevant if you can use your few chances and the other team can't.
This victory once again reminds me once again of an excellent article (written during the 2006 World Cup, but still relevant) which called the Italian team an enigma. They have difficulties getting out of their group, waste loads of chances against England, their main star is constantly criticized and then he and Italy go on and defeat once again Germany, the supposed perennial favorite and make it almost seem easy.
So whatever surprises Italy can deliver in the final, I wish them luck!

[GMantis]

It just occurs to me that we all overlooked the fact that there is another football scandal in Italy - obviously making them favorites

[GMantis]

A close, highclass game, no major refereeing errors, and no penalty shootout.

On that note, I'm glad and happy they sent Stark home after his performance vs Croatia.

Regarding referees, it seems strange that they appointed a Portuguese referee only four days they were eliminated by Spain.

[GMantis]

So, as things stand at the moment, Mitt Romney will be elected President in November according to the Keystone Phil sports curse ?

Is losing to Spain a monumental failure, though?
Of course losing by three or more goals (entirely possible if looking at the match until now) would probably be.

[GMantis]

The referee has apparently not forgotten about his country's elimination from the tournament...

[GMantis]

Now this is just cruel.