Euro 2012 - Official Discussion Thread

[Gustaf]

Hm, might make a more thought through prediction later, but right now:

Russia
Poland

Germany
Netherlands

Spain
Italy

France
England

----------------------

Russia v Netherlands

Germany v Poland

Spain v England

France v Italy

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Germany v France

Spain v Netherlands

-----------------------------------

Germany v Spain

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I think Germany will take it this time. I feel they've been getting stronger, while Spain and Holland have been getting weaker. Those 3 are imo the best teams in Europe by some distance right now. I have a feeling France might exceed expectations while England will disappoint, again.

I think Sweden will tie England lose against France and fail to beat the Ukraine. Poland might get 2nd in their group on sheer enthusiasm.

[Gustaf]

BUMP

We need more predictions to laugh at later!

[Gustaf]

I have a really hard time seeing Germany/Netherlands losing against any group A teams. Russia seems a lot weaker compared to the last Euros.

[Gustaf]

Jas claims he's going to be objective...then gives the most ridiculous prediction. The Netherlands will be last? Italy, too? Ireland blows out all competition in the knockout rounds except in the Final, where they fail on penalties? Ok, you were clearly being sarcastic when you said "very objective."

I`m not a great supporter but I`m going with the red shirts. Try to guess if I am talking about Garibaldians, Chavistas or the defenders of the title. I´m terrible making predictions but I don´t feel very optimistic. Anyway we´ll reach the Semifinal.

Garibaldians? We wear blue or white, not red.

He used a system. A ridiculous one, granted, but still. It is objective in that sense.

[Gustaf]

I've been trying to think of a ranking of the teams, taking everything into account (although not the draw or anything like that).

I have:

Germany
Spain (could easily be flipped)
Netherlands

France
Italy
England
Portugal
Russia

The weaker teams I'm less sure of, but I will give them some thought.

[Gustaf]

Disappointed in Poland - Greece seems to scrape by without playing well a lot ever since they won in 2004.

Russia looking strong, but then again, we expected the Czechs to suck, so...

[Gustaf]

I think it's safe to say that Sweden and Ireland are out of it. I'd also be very surprised to see the Czechs go anywhere, to be honest.

[Gustaf]

Germany v Netherlands feels extremely unpredictable. Could go a number of different ways.

Portugal v Denmark is a bit similar actually.

[Gustaf]

Let's remember one thing, folks. If Germany beats Denmark in the last game (which is obviously very likely) Holland only has to beat Portugal by 2 goals to go through. So they're not totally done  yet.

[Gustaf]

Let's remember one thing, folks. If Germany beats Denmark in the last game (which is obviously very likely) Holland only has to beat Portugal by 2 goals to go through. So they're not totally done  yet.

Talking about unlikly results. If Denmark loses with one goal against Germany, while Portugal loses with exactly 1 goal to the Netherlands and Denmark scores at least one goal more than Portugal we are through.

Fx.

Netherlands-Portugal 1-0
Germany-Denmark 2-1

Weird. But not out of the question. I think the Germans will take it easy if they have a 2-1 lead and not push too hard for a third goal.
At the same time Dutch defenders will not make the same mistakes we did and their strikers and offensive midfielders have not been impressive.

If Netherlands beat Portugal and Germany beats Denmark, everyone but Germany ends up on equal points.

First tie-breaker is then goal difference from the games between everyone but Germany. Current standing:

Denmark: 0
Netherlands: -1
Portugal: +1

Denmark obviously won't change here. Since this assumes Netherlands beating Portugal, they either do it by more than 1 goal and go through or by 1 goal and then everyone is tied on this measure.

Second tie-breaker is highest number of goals scored in games excluding Germany.

Denmark: 3
Portugal: 3
Netherlands: 0

If this is to be relevant Netherlands has to beat Portugal by no more than 1 goal. Which leaves 2 possibilities -
           Netherlands wins 1-0 --> Denmark and Portugal tied
           Netherlands win by 1 with Portugal scoring --> Portugal goes through

Third tie-breaker is superior goal difference in all matches. Again, for this to be relevant Netherlands has to win by 1 against Portugal so we know that

Netherlands: -1
Portugal: -1

Denmark is currently at 0 but since this assumes them losing against Germany they would have -1 (at least). So they can at best tie on this statistic.

4th tie-breaker is most goals scored in all matches. Here, again, it assumes that Netherlands beat Portugal 1-0. So we know that

Netherlands: 2
Portugal: 3

Which means that Denmark (currently at 3) would need to score 1 goal to go through on this.

The 5th tie-breaker is UEFA coefficient. This is obviously Holland's.

Note: I'm not sure what the rules are if 1 of the 3 teams is not tied on one of this. I've been assuming they're still counted in the next step.

[Gustaf]

I think Sweden is totally done. I actually expected us to fail at going through even with a win against the Ukraine. My expectation was that we would tie them.

I think they will be stronger this game than the last one and I don't think a tie against England is totally out of the question. If that happens the media will hype the possibility of beating France in the last game but I fully expect France to crush us.

[Gustaf]

If we lose today it's over. I think we might tie this game and then lose to France though.

[Gustaf]

Well, I had low hopes before the tournament and it turned out to go even worse than I anticipated.

At least they gave a strong performance against England and with a little more luck things could have gone our way. I guess I should be happy about that.

Jas: Ibrahimovic has always been a bit of a lazy player in his style but it was unusually bad towards the end yesterday. He is hampered by being too far above the rest of the team in skill though.

[Gustaf]

I think Lewis is saying that a 3-2 win for Denmark would see both teams through (well, he said 4-3, but still).

And I remember watching that Sweden-Denmark game and it never felt particularly rigged.

[Gustaf]

Beating Greece would be quite amusing

Greece beating Germany would be even more amusing.

Yes. And all of non-German Europe would be cheering for the Greeks.

No they wouldn't...

Yeah, I think most people here in the North would support Germany both politically and in the football sense.

[Gustaf]

Freaky, although one can't say that it wasn't deserved at the end of the day.

[Gustaf]

I predict

Portugal
Germany
Spain
Italy

Semis are always pretty tricky. But I do think Spain beats Portugal. Germany v Italy...I know Italy has a strong record against Germany, but even so, I would predict Germany to take it. They just seem too much better for me to predict otherwise. Then I have to go with my heart and predict Germany for the win.

[Gustaf]

I'm honestly really worried about Italy. This feels like 2006 all over again. I'll be really pissed if they knock out Germany.

[Gustaf]

Interesting stat I just found. All-time comparison of (somebody else's definition of) the Big Eight.

1. BRA 189 Matches 81W 51T 57L 1,62 pps average.
2. ITA 164 70 52 42 1,58 pps.
3.ENG 163 64 45 54 1,44 pps.
4.SPA 136 49 32 55 1,30 pps.
5. ARG 177 61 48 67 1,26 pps.
6. FRA 169 54 39 76 1,19 pps.
7. GER 187 58 51 78 1,18 pps.
8. HOL 151 59 42 45 1,01 pps.

The point of the comparison being, of course, that titles cannot be expected from Germany. (I wonder why England is placed that well? Do they do that well in friendlies? Or were so many of these games before the Second World War?)

Also, another fun stat: Brazil have never, ever, ever managed to beat Norway. Four games, two draws, two defeats.

Germany's key strength is that they pretty much never lose against lesser teams. When they get knocked out it's pretty much always by one of the big teams. Italy for example often goes out against teams like Slovakia or South Korea (but usually does well against other big teams).