Euro 2012 - Official Discussion Thread

[politicus]

F[inks] them Danish b*###s ...

Right back at ya, Orange wankers

[politicus]

My tip:

Denmark - Netherlands 1-0
Germany - Portugal 1-0

Germany - Netherlands 1-0
Portugal - Denmark 0-1

Portugal - Netherlands 1-2
Denmark - Germany 0-1

Portugal is an inefficient team withut a proper striker and relies far too much on Ronaldo.

[politicus]

¡Arriba España! Italy is a boring team.

[politicus]

Well, our football team's not getting through, our rugby team is sucking too, this is typically when the cricket team comes out of nowhere to make a big upset but unfortunately I don't think there's a tournament coming up soon.

Just insist they make hurling an Olympic sport, that should do it...

[politicus]

In hilarious slightly related news, Tahiti (or French Polynesia) has defeated New Caledonia (who defeated New Zealand) to win the 2012 OFC Nations Cup, and will now be playing such teams as Brazil, Uruguay, Spain and whoever wins the Euro (France) at the 2013 Confederations Cup as a result.

Let's hope someone repeats that performance for the World Cup. I really want to see Vanuatu or the Solomon Islands there.

The Spanish-Italian rivalry is always interesting to hear about since it's taken quite seriously by those concerned and very little known or cared about in more northerly parts of Europe.

Lets hope so. I am a Big Vanuatu fan. Lived there for 6 months a couple of years ago. There should be a chance next time.

[politicus]

Well, our good statistic against Portugal was broken. Now its 3-3 since 2006. Beat the bastards only 8 months ago, but defence sucked in crucial situations. The team hasn't played well and two key players are injured now.

Its actually the poorest Danish performance against the Portuguese in six years and yet they almost got a tie. Too bad they missed. It was the one match everybody here thought we actually had good odds at winning.  
 
One statistic that still stands is that Bendtner scores every time he plays against Portugal. Its the fourth time he does it. A fine tradition

What do you guys say. Will it be a quarter final without Scandinavians this time?

Who has the best (least horrible..) odds now - Denmark or Sweden?

[politicus]

Let's remember one thing, folks. If Germany beats Denmark in the last game (which is obviously very likely) Holland only has to beat Portugal by 2 goals to go through. So they're not totally done  yet.

Talking about unlikly results. If Denmark loses with one goal against Germany, while Portugal loses with exactly 1 goal to the Netherlands and Denmark scores at least one goal more than Portugal we are through.

Fx.

Netherlands-Portugal 1-0
Germany-Denmark 2-1

Weird. But not out of the question. I think the Germans will take it easy if they have a 2-1 lead and not push too hard for a third goal.
At the same time Dutch defenders will not make the same mistakes we did and their strikers and offensive midfielders have not been impressive.

[politicus]

Let's remember one thing, folks. If Germany beats Denmark in the last game (which is obviously very likely) Holland only has to beat Portugal by 2 goals to go through. So they're not totally done  yet.

Talking about unlikly results. If Denmark loses with one goal against Germany, while Portugal loses with exactly 1 goal to the Netherlands and Denmark scores at least one goal more than Portugal we are through.

Fx.

Netherlands-Portugal 1-0
Germany-Denmark 2-1

Weird. But not out of the question. I think the Germans will take it easy if they have a 2-1 lead and not push too hard for a third goal.
At the same time Dutch defenders will not make the same mistakes we did and their strikers and offensive midfielders have not been impressive.

If Netherlands beat Portugal and Germany beats Denmark, everyone but Germany ends up on equal points.

First tie-breaker is then goal difference from the games between everyone but Germany. Current standing:

Denmark: 0
Netherlands: -1
Portugal: +1

Denmark obviously won't change here. Since this assumes Netherlands beating Portugal, they either do it by more than 1 goal and go through or by 1 goal and then everyone is tied on this measure.

Second tie-breaker is highest number of goals scored in games excluding Germany.

Denmark: 3
Portugal: 3
Netherlands: 0

If this is to be relevant Netherlands has to beat Portugal by no more than 1 goal. Which leaves 2 possibilities -
           Netherlands wins 1-0 --> Denmark and Portugal tied
           Netherlands win by 1 with Portugal scoring --> Portugal goes through

Third tie-breaker is superior goal difference in all matches. Again, for this to be relevant Netherlands has to win by 1 against Portugal so we know that

Netherlands: -1
Portugal: 0

Denmark is currently at 0 but since this assumes them losing against Germany they would have -1 (at least). So they can at best tie on this statistic.

4th tie-breaker is most goals scored in all matches. Here, again, it assumes that Netherlands beat Portugal 1-0. So we know that

Netherlands: 2
Portugal: 3

Which means that Denmark (currently at 3) would need to score 1 goal to go through on this.

The 5th tie-breaker is UEFA coefficient. This is obviously Holland's.

Note: I'm not sure what the rules are if 1 of the 3 teams is not tied on one of this. I've been assuming they're still counted in the next step.

Yeah, the entire Danish sports press got that wrong.. Rule change in March. so we need points.

But we will just have to uphold that time honoured Danish tradition: Getting the necessary points when we absolutely have to... We have won a lot of matches we werent supposed to stand a chance in.

How do you rate the Swedish chances?

[politicus]

As expected, cynicism has swept across Italy: it seems like an overwhelming majority believe Italy will be knocked out, regardless of what they do against Ireland, because Spain and Croatia will agree to draw 2-2. It would be 2004 all over again.  
I'm not sure what to think. At first, I'm inclined to agree but then I think Croatia will want to play for the win in order to claim top spot in the group (a draw means Spain remain in first). That will force Spain to play, too, and likely win. It would be hilarious if Croatia fought for the win at the very end, got it and we see Spain eliminated assuming Italy beats Ireland. That's why Spain can't just let Croatia do whatever they want. They should be almost as concerned as the Italians.

Of course, none of this matters if we lose or draw with the Irish which is also a worry of mine. This could be the exact same ending as 2010: two opening matches ending 1-1 and then a surprise defeat. The Irish are playing for pride and they have Trap. He'd love to make a statement against us. Plus, we tend to screw up games we should win...

Bottom line: Monday is going to be a real headache.

This is a myth. The 2004 2-2 game between Denmark and Sweden was fought very hard and both teams did their best to win. Noone who saw the game with unbiased eyes could say otherwise.
There is a lot of prestige in beating the neighbours in a DK/Sweden game and neither team would play for a tie in such a match.

[politicus]

Beating Greece would be quite amusing

Greece beating Germany would be even more amusing.

Yes. And all of non-German Europe would be cheering for the Greeks.

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In the twelve years Morten Olsen has been coaching the Danish national team, Denmark has never lost to Germany.
Is that record going to be broken tomorrow?

[politicus]

Beating Greece would be quite amusing

Greece beating Germany would be even more amusing.

Yes. And all of non-German Europe would be cheering for the Greeks.

No they wouldn't...

Yeah, I think most people here in the North would support Germany both politically and in the football sense.

Sympathy for the underdogs + historical animosity towards Germany = pro Greece, even if you don't like the way they play football or their politics.

Sweden is probably not typical in this matter because you have never been occupied by/at war with  the Germans like most other European nations.

[politicus]

Apart from drunken Ingerland fans.

And French TV trailers makers, La Guerre de 100 ans!! On va bouter les Anglais!! is back every 6 nations tournament here, ah well, that's overall the case for rugby though, because it's France2 who has most of the broadcasting rights for rugby, and France2 rugby journalists are a bit...hmm...let's just say 'in their own world'. TF1 who has most of the most popular football matches is more in a 'gladiatorian style' or something like that.

Speaking about broadcasting rights, 'Bein sport', the new Qatari French sport TV created a few months ago (Al Jazeera group, but I guess you can't really open a TV in France with an Arab name if you care about not being lynched), already became the 3rd buyer of football matches. Wanna watch? 11€ per month! Damn it, yesterday all matches were there. IT'S TRUE THE ARAB INVASION IS HERE! Seriously, Qatar is buying France like a bulimic is eating some of those empty cream cakes nowadays (they should beware, the second phase of a bulimia is...).

Beating Greece would be quite amusing

Greece beating Germany would be even more amusing.

Yes. And all of non-German Europe would be cheering for the Greeks.

C'mon, France is such an impressive country and all that, but we're not all the non-German Europe. Ah well, I'd have the feeling French don't really give a penny about that, the non-German Europe has only major teams, so they mainly care about themselves, Northern Europe mainly has Germany, so they do with what they have. I'd even have the feeling French could prefer playing Germany, which I want! (Ok, seeing Greece defeating them would be fun too). And since we would obviously finish 1st of our group, and same for Germany, bloody damn it, we couldn't have Germany in final like I thought before, we will have to put up with the fact to beat them only in semis, ah well, that's life...(which would make a 1982 revenge still more accurate!).

Anyways, nowadays, anybody in the non-German Europe hates Germany!

GO LATIN!

Were you drunk when you made this post? Much of it doesnt make sense.

[politicus]

Beating Greece would be quite amusing

Greece beating Germany would be even more amusing.

Yes. And all of non-German Europe would be cheering for the Greeks.

No they wouldn't...

Yeah, I think most people here in the North would support Germany both politically and in the football sense.

Sympathy for the underdogs + historical animosity towards Germany = pro Greece, even if you don't like the way they play football or their politics.

Sweden is probably not typical in this matter because you have never been occupied by/at war with  the Germans like most other European nations.

To be honest, I doubt the war has much to do with modern football sympathies, lol.

Think it has more to do with wanting a primary competitor to be gone.

Thats a bit naive. WW2 is a root cause of a strong underlying (but rarely openly expressed) anti-German feeling in many European countries, and that sentiment obviously influneces the way you preceive football matches. The "anybody but Germany" sentiment is quite strong and is not just about sports rivalry.

[politicus]

http://www.insideworldsoccer.com/2012/06/chinese-man-dies-after-11-sleepless.html

Too bad its impossible for the Chinese to just call in and say they are sick in a case like this. Control too tight for that in many cases.
Having a case of "Soccer-flu" during tournaments should be a human right.

[politicus]

I'm honestly really worried happy about Italy. This feels like 2006 all over again. I'll be really pissed pleased if they knock out Germany

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Since Spain was already going to the Confederations Cup as the past World Cup champ I guess Italy will go to the confederations then right?

Yes unless Italy declines.

Losing by four sucks. Losing period sucks. But we had a good tournament and showed the world that the Azzurri isn't doomed for a generation. Watch out for us in 2014. Now let's see if Prandelli sticks around.

Hope so. He is a great coach and clearly the man behind Italys succes. It would be stupid to blame him for the loss, even if the substitute thing was a mistake.