French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/06/03/le-parti-de-gaston-flosse-en-tete-des-legislatives-en-polynesie-francaise_1711960_823448.html

[minionofmidas]

Complete results

[minionofmidas]

Flosse is running ? I thought he was ineligible.

He's not - his party's candidates came first in two constituencies and second in the third, and are in runoffs vs Temaru's guys everywhere.

[minionofmidas]

If Coronado is elected, I'll probably commit suicide.

These constituencies have been decided 2 years ago and, in the UMP, they weren't able to make a good work on the field ?... Bah...
But, nevertheless, let's remember that Marleix himself said it would be balanced between left and right in these "French abroad" constituencies.

The turnout is disgusting, especially when I see how my vote will be wasted next Sunday.
God, I'm really angry.
Some general counsellors are beaten with more votes...

Not the turnout is disgusting, the bizarre notion that French citizens abroad should have fptp constituencies is.

[minionofmidas]

The notion that citizens living far abroad and not intending to return home in the short run nonetheless have an interest in the composition of the national assembly, while those actually affected by it on a daily basis and paying taxes for its upkeep but who are not citizens should not be, is the notion that a country is basically a company and citizenship is basically a share. Next thing you'll be demanding dividends out of the treasury.
And sure enough, Western countries have no problems with the international upper middle class aquiring shares in multiple countries, but are very against third world immigrants doing so.
The notion just screams "I like Representative Government but have an exterminatory hatred of Democracy" (it's not the same thing, you know.) Using single-member constituencies is just rubbing it in.

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't be very surprised if these constituencies started mattering more than the normal guys ones.

I would be. These elections appear to turn out just as farcical in France as in Italy. I wonder what kind of connection these MPs can have to either their "constituency" or the people they'll actually make laws for...

[minionofmidas]

Reopened. Behave yourselves.

Never!

Lemonde says

Right 35.4
Left 34.9 not including Greens
FN 13.4
FG 6.9
Greens 5.3
Mo Dem 1.5
far left 1.0
non-FN far right 0.1
various 1.5

turnout 57.1

48% for the left all told. That's pretty landslidey isn't it?

[minionofmidas]

Oure-Mer minister Victorin Lurel re-elected in Guadalupe IV.

Majorities for Socialists in three constituencies there actually, but low turnout means the other two need to go to a runoff anyways. Same in one constituency in Martinique.

[minionofmidas]

First mainland results: Lot.

1st RDG 41.5, UMP 25.3 (FG 9.7, AC 6.5, FN 6.4, EELV 4.4 etc pp)
2nd PS 52.8, PR 20.4 (FN 9.9, FG 7.9 etc pp). Jean Launay elected.

[minionofmidas]

Lozere.

PS 33.1, UMP (Morel) 27.4, UMP (St Leger) 17.8 and eliminated. Note that Morel was the dissident.

[minionofmidas]

Basses-Alpes

1st: PS 33.1, UMP 23.7, FN 16.7 (out)
2nd: PS 35.8, UMP 29.8, FN 15.5 (out)

Ninja'd. I can add that the 2nd is listed only as "favored" in Hash's map.

[minionofmidas]

What does it mean "ninja'd"?

So basically, 12.5 gets FN to the second round, or is it higher than that?

12.5% of registered voters gets a third (or lower) placed candidate to the runoff. With ~57% turnout, expect few triangulaires.

[minionofmidas]

Ariege is in, but that's boring. One Socialist elected in the first round, the other going into the runoff with a twenty point lead and FN and FG essentially tied for third.

[minionofmidas]

And just to prove my point, Aube reports and has a triangulaire in the 1st constituency.

UMP leading everywhere though, and that FN candidate that forced himself into the 2nd round came 3rd (with 25%). Oh, and his name is "Subtil". Lol.

Two safe PS seats in Gers, one of them won in the first round.

[minionofmidas]

Côtes-d’Armor
2007: 4 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Saint-Brieuc, PS^) This seat, which takes in Saint-Brieuc and adjacent cantons (including the former PCF working-class base of Ploufragan) has been held by the PS’ Danielle Bousquet since 1997. Bousquet, who won reelection with 57.7% in 2007, is retiring this year. Her successor will be Michel Lesage, the PS mayor/general councillor of Langueux. The only non-Socialist who could have made this race less boring is Bruno Joncour, the MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc who has a strong personal vote (iirc, he won reelection in 2008 by defeating Bousquet, after a fairly flukeish win in 2001). He isn’t running, so the UMP’s candidate – some local councillor in Saint-Brieuc, will be crushed in typical fashion in the second-safest leftie seat in the 22. Hollande won 61.4% of the vote on May 6.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Lesage 46.7, UMP 25.2. Prediction: Correct.

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42.4 - 27.2, so, yeah.
 

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Le Fur 46.6, Cauret 37.9. Le Fur should hold.
 

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Le Houérou. By oh so much. 32.0% vs 18.3% for UMP, 16.6% Commie, just 12.4% Green. This wasn't far off the right going out by round one (UMP under 12.5% of registered voters).
 

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46.2 to 26.0. So, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

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La Magueresse 35.4, Le Ray 24.3, Grall 20.0, enough for a triangulaire. I suppose he'll withdraw though?

[minionofmidas]

Few more interesting results in Morbihan, actually.

FN is doing worse than expected all over. Only one triangulaire in Haut-Rhin - and one second place, but that in the constituency UMP wins on the first round.

[minionofmidas]

Corsica.

Sud 1 Marcangeli (UMP) 30.8, Renucci (DVG) 29.4
Sud 2 Rocca Serra (UMP) 33.0, Angelini (rég) 21.2
Haute 1 Gandolfi (UMP) 31.2, Simeoni (rég) 24.7, Zuccarelli (RDG) 23.6. Triangulaire.
Haute 2 Giacobbi (RDG) 43.6, Grimaldi (UMP) 24.8

Now to go compare that with expectations.

[minionofmidas]

Royal 32.03
Falorni(PS dissident) 28.91
UMP 19.47% (eliminated)

Falorni doesn't seem to want to withdraw
...

I never understood why he should. It would be something else in a triangulaire.

[minionofmidas]

Not majority in the French and English sense - all they mean is more seats than the UMP - but it's still a widely inaccurate headline.