Italy 2013: The official thread

[Peter the Lefty]

Thanks for making this, Antonio.  Well done.  I know it seems unlikely, but at this point, what are the chances (approximately) of an internal PD primary?  And would it be open to just PD people, or other members of the center-left coalition as well, the way regional and municipal ones have been?  And who would be some potential alternatives to Bersani, if they were to take place? (besides Renzi...really don't like that guy.) I'm guessing they'd be pretty divisive and potentially lead to the PD splitting up....:/




*Still got my fingers crossed for Vendola, hoping he gets his momentum back somehow*

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.

I'd love to see him as the left's standard bearer, and I'd love to see him become PM, because he no longer identifies as a communist, and he has governed the Puglia region pretty pragmatically (cutting red tape for small businesses for example), plus he's got more charisma than a million Bersanis combined.  Btw, to which faction of the PD does Catiuscia Marini belong, out of curiosity?

[Peter the Lefty]

M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.

It would be hilarious if one or a bunch of M5S city council members ended up in a really huge corruption scandal though. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh, and a new poll:
PD-25.0%
M5S-20.0%
PdL-17.2%
IdV-7.8%
UdC-6.8%
SEL-6.3%
Lega-4.8%
FdS-2.7%
FLI-2.5%
Destra-1.3%
Holy.  Sh*t.  Holy.  Sh*t.  I seriously hope the M5S surpasses the PD (briefly) in the polls in order to terrify them into holding center-left primaries so Vendola can win and steal back Grillo's momentum.  But God, Grillo as the first (elected) PM after Berlusconi would be SAD.  

[Peter the Lefty]

ROFLMAO ! I promised you an exciting campaign, didn't I ? This is getting epically hilarious...

But don't go too fast, Peter. M5S winning more votes than PD wouldn't mean that Grillo becomes PM, far from that. Remember the voting system : what matters are coalitions. If the system remains the same and if the left coalition is what it is expected to be, today's poll still gives it 41.8% (a bit more if you add PSI and the Greens), far above M5S's lone standing. Of course, everything can happen in terms of coalitions, but the possibility of M5S coalizing with another party is still pretty remote.

Ah true.  But would it at least scare the PD sh**tless enough that they might be more likely to hold PD (or hopefully even center-left) primaries.

[Peter the Lefty]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

[Peter the Lefty]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.

Damn.  Why has so much of his momentum gone?  Is it because of that health care scandal?  All I can say is that no offense is meant, but I really hope this prediction turns out like your last one

[Peter the Lefty]

Any news?  Seems awfully quite here. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Omg imagine a Vendola vs. Berlusconi vs. Grillo election.  That would be...colorful.  

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, I just read Vendola announced on Wednesday that he's running in the primaries.  Any news on what his prospects seem to be right now, Antonio?  Have any other candidates declared?

It was mentioned earlier that Vendola apparently isn't much of a factor anymore. Of course, Bersani is also a candidate.

I know, but would he still have a better chance than Bersani or the other candidates?  Plus, once he starts campaigning, I'm sure his star will rise again (since he's very good at public speaking).  Plus, as I've said, I'd love to see a Vendola vs. Berlusconi vs. Grillo race. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I think Bersani is the safe bet. Though, aside from Prodi, we have seen what safe bets have gotten the Italian Left...

Damn.  I really would love to see my fellow gay tree-hugging socialist kick Berlusconi's ass.  Plus, Berlusconi is such a better campaigner than Bersani that I'd actually think he'd be likelier to win (not that I'd claim to know, but given that Berlusconi tends to keep coming back again and again, and Bersani has, in Antonio's words, the charisma of a stale pizza, it would seem that way). 

[Peter the Lefty]

I have seen some stuff that looks like he's running.  Since I liked Vendola's Facebook page, I keep seeing news articles (all in Italian, unfortunately) and to pages on Vendola's web site (or SEL's, not sure which).  And there has been some stuff about Renzi, and it certainly looks like there's a catfight going on between those two (or was). 

[Peter the Lefty]

Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola or condemn Italy to god-knows-how-many more years of rule by this paedophile clown!  Your choice!

[Peter the Lefty]

Goddamit.  Message to the center-left primary voters:
Get your ing acts together and nominate Vendola

Uh...he has to be the least electable, dude.

In terms of ideology, yes.  In terms of skill, campaigning abilities, and being able to get the votes of people who otherwise would not vote to vote, he's probably the most electable. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Wow.  Vendola facing possible jail time. 
[url][http://touch.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73036432//url]

[Peter the Lefty]

The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.

Wow.  So the accusations are actually credible?

[Peter the Lefty]

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFBRE89U0M120121031
Vendola acquitted. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh boy.  They pick the establishment hack.  *sigh*.  By the way, Antonio, just out of curiosity, why'd you change your icon to Republican? 

[Peter the Lefty]

the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani

Well, I suppose one could say he's a bit of a duller version of Adlai Stevenson.  Not a bad guy, but he's being propped up by a bunch of corrupt bastards who don't want Kefauver-esque mavericks like Renzi and Vendola pushing them out of power and exposing their corruption. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I'm torn.  For so long, I've been imagining my hypothetical Italian self voting for SEL.  Now, I'm thinking that the Orange Movement might be better.  I mean, even if they oppose Monti's reforms, SEL will basically be propping up Monti.  And he wants to keep them, if I'm correct.  Plus, it seems like no European center-left party is capable of coming to power and not ing everything up with more austerity.  But this is tricky. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Dear God.  Never thought he'd sink THIS low.  Though given who is it, I should have.

[Peter the Lefty]

Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:

Really, this applies to the entire Italian political class.

Minus Vendola and maybe a few young PDers.  But yes, it's true.  How about the French one too, while we're at it?