Italy 2013: The official thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This isn't really any more surreal than the Forza Italia breakthrough in 1994.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably the municipalities it won will attempt to twin-town with Reykjavík?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh... at least you get results at a local level released...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, in 1994 there were still large numbers of Italians who voted for successor parties to those destroyed by the scandals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

I don't mean to cause any offence, but I can't get my head around this post. Is it from some parallel universe or other?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bersani is a former Communist, Renzi comes from a DC background.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and Formigoni is also taking heat for a councillor in his government allegedly buying votes from 'Ndrangheta. Can't forget that little tidbit.

Talking of which: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19886631

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember that we're dealing with a country that voted for the DC's for forty years, and then decided that Berlusconi wasn't such a bad chap after all. Nothing that can possibly happen is as bizarre as what already has done so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh Italy...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some help, please, from the Italians: is this March 10th date the day for the Parliamentary elections or just the regional Special elections?

just the regional special elections...for the moment
PdL would like to have the parliamentary elections on the same day. Nothing has been decided yet though. However, pushing regional elections from January to March makes a big election day more likely than before.

Why is the PdL so eager to be annihilated?

death wish

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Renzi comes across as a vacuous windbag, so this is good news.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Delete 1994 from that list.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hopefully Berlusconi gets battered as badly as the (rebranded) DC's in 1994.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.

Worse outcomes are possible.

This is very true...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has Monti just tried to refound the DC's?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PD is basically the old Communist Party minus it's left wing, but plus the left wing of the old Christian Democrats.

Anyways, quite a few maps here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79927.0

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Ah, 70s not 80s; I confused it with something else (and I know what as well).

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Well, I suppose if Gramsci is one of your founding figures...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.

Ah, but it isn't just Berlusconi I'm thinking of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

Basically. It doesn't seem very likely, but then Berlusconi winning in 1994 was not exactly plausible sounding until it actually happened either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That too, yes. Better not rule anything out, no matter how strange.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.