Wisconsin Recall: Swing Map

[Torie]

I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.

could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).

Try "crescent" next time. You know, like the "capitalist crescent."  How about calling Dane and Milwaukee the "pockets of purloinment?" Two can play the name calling name you know.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

If I'm Duffy, I like the look of this swing map. Sure the Lake Superior coast shore swung toward the Democrats but the rest of his district more than cancels that out. There just aren't that many people in Superior.

Superior is a pretty big Dem node (buttressed a bit more by two adjacent counties, one of which is where Duffy lives, but he got almost no homeboy tailwind for some reason when he ran in 2010), while the blue counties up there don't have many people. The biggest offset is Marathon County actually (Wausau) I suspect if you crunched the numbers. That is the most populated county in the CD going away (well maybe St Croix isn't that much smaller, I'm not sure).

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

Duffy's CD is 0.38% Dem PVI just to toss that into the mix. I also give 3 points to an incumbent as a rule, if proven to be reasonably competent. So in an even election, lean Pub is my call (assuming Duffy is reasonably competent), putting aside this Walker trend business for whatever it is worth which someone I guess will crunch out.  I would guess it's around the 15th-20th or so most vulnerable Pub seats in ranking.