Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. 
More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).
Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.
Duffy's CD is 0.38% Dem PVI just to toss that into the mix. I also give 3 points to an incumbent as a rule, if proven to be reasonably competent. So in an even election, lean Pub is my call (assuming Duffy is reasonably competent), putting aside this Walker trend business for whatever it is worth which someone I guess will crunch out. I would guess it's around the 15th-20th or so most vulnerable Pub seats in ranking.
Duffy came out of nowhere (other than The Real World) and had a bunch of YouTube gaffes last year complaining about how poor he is on his congressional salary. I don't think he's unreasonably incompetent but I don't see his getting a bump for having been elected in the Tea Party election that someone like Nan Hayworth or one of the Philly-area Pubs would get.
