PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:13:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8  (Read 5256 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2012, 10:50:08 PM »


Poll that shows Romney ahead" Good news! we have a chance of taking america back from the commie!

Poll that shows Obama ahead "Trash poll!"

Trash poll is the automatic response of every dem hack on these boards to a Rasmussen poll.

Because Rasmussen is objectively a trash polling firm.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2012, 10:51:49 PM »

The PPP bashing is hilarious. They were off by like 3 or 4 points. Big freakin' whoop. It happens.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2012, 11:07:53 PM »

"But that's pretty poor compared to how many pollsters GOT IT RIGHT" -- Why do you find this meaningful?  

I'll send you the updated Nate Silver rankings when they come out. That's how it is meaningful.

You can defend that statement, I suppose, (although it will have a very marginal effect) but how do you defend "After a stellar polling job in last night's Wisconsin recall (NOT)"?  You have rather low confidence (probably less than ~70-75%) that's true.

"Bias" in statistics is not the same as "house effect," which matches the colloquial definition of "bias."  Statistical bias is any deviation from the population parameter.

Repeatedly missing in 1 direction like they did with Amendment 1 is a sign of putting out nonsense.

1. The average systemic bias on gay marriage polls (-7) is greater than the average systemic bias on other polls, indicating it may not just be the pollster's screw-up.

2. Show me something with actual statistical analysis and I will entertain your conclusions.  Otherwise, how do you not know you're accidentally cherry-picking?
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 06, 2012, 11:22:32 PM »

Compared to the polls released in the last 2 weeks, PPP did not have a good performance. About 5 pollsters were more on the mark than them in the Wisconsin recall. That's how statiscians, like Nate Silver, rank pollsters. That's also why I said "After a stellar polling job in last night's Wisconsin recall (NOT)." I said that because, comparatively, PPP missed the mark more than about FIVE OTHER POLLSTERS. You say that doesn't matter. Then send Nate Silver an email.

I did not say "that doesn't matter."  You are consistently imprecise in both your debates and numerical analysis.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2012, 11:51:58 PM »

I did not say "that doesn't matter."  You are consistently imprecise in both your debates and numerical analysis.
Right. Thank you, godfather.

I don't know what that's supposed to mean, but whenever you'd like to respond to points actually included in the words I typed...
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2012, 12:21:32 AM »

So 48-44 without the PPP handicap.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2012, 12:09:11 PM »

junk poll of course...

Party id sample: D + 9

LOL !

And Romney wins I by 1...
Logged
zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 10, 2012, 06:19:13 PM »

My rule of thumb for PPP polls: add 2 pts to the Republican and subtract 2 from the Democrat, so this would be Obama up 48-44. 
But even that seems a bit optimistic given Ras and Gallup have Romney up 1 today and RealClear has the average of polls Obama up only 1.3%
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 14 queries.