MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney+1 and ... Obama+1

[Tender Branson]

The poll, released this morning to the Free Press and four TV stations, shows Romney leading Obama 46%-45%.

...

EPIC asked poll respondents as well how their views might be affected by Obama’s recent announcement of support for same-sex marriage, and Romney’s opposition to the federal government bailouts of the auto industry.

Same sex marriage prompted 12% to say they would be more likely to vote for Obama, while 34% said they would be less likely.

Romney’s position on federal aid to GM and Chrysler made 18% of voters more likely to support him, and 39% less likely.

Asked what their presidential preference would be in light of those positions, the head-to-head results flipped, with Obama ahead 46%-45%.

...

Both are well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The telephone survey of 600 likely voters was conducted June 2-5.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120607/NEWS06/120607030/Poll-Barack-Obama-dead-heat-Mitt-Romney-Michigan-popularity-slips

[Tender Branson]

EPIC usually has an epic GOP-leaning sample, sometimes with more Republicans than Democrats.

Was also the case in 2008 polling:

End May 2008 EPIC poll: McCain+4
End June 2008 PPP poll: Obama+9

Final result: Obama+16

[Umengus]

EPIC usually has an epic GOP-leaning sample, sometimes with more Republicans than Democrats.

Was also the case in 2008 polling:

End May 2008 EPIC poll: McCain+4
End June 2008 PPP poll: Obama+9

Final result: Obama+16

Agree  but it was in may and june, before the financial crisis...

[tmthforu94]

EPIC usually has an epic GOP-leaning sample, sometimes with more Republicans than Democrats.

Was also the case in 2008 polling:

End May 2008 EPIC poll: McCain+4
End June 2008 PPP poll: Obama+9

Final result: Obama+16

Michigan was a battleground state through the spring and summer. SurveyUSA also had McCain leading, as did Rasmussen at the time. In August, EPIC actually had Obama doing better in Michigan than PPP did, by a point.

Which numbers will be entered in the database?

[NVGonzalez]

Nope.avi

[Rowan]

Obviously the first one should be entered into the database. The second one is basically push polling.

[tmthforu94]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120605055

PPP appears to be the outlier here - every other poll done here since March has the race within 5 points.

[DrScholl]

EPIC-MRA shows better results for Republican in Michigan than any other pollster.

[tmthforu94]

EPIC-MRA shows better results for Republican in Michigan than any other pollster.

...and PPP shows better results for Democrats in Michigan than any other recent pollster.

[DrScholl]

EPIC-MRA shows better results for Republican in Michigan than any other pollster.

...and PPP shows better results for Democrats in Michigan than any other recent pollster.

I wasn't trying to start that argument again, I was making a point about EPIC-MRA's overall record, which is more Republican leaning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney has a much better chance of taking IO,WI or NH than he does MI.

[timothyinMD]

Romney has a much better chance of taking IO,WI or NH than he does MI.

*IA

Yes this is true, but I still don't believe MI will be an Obama landslide like it was 4 years ago.  I think Romney will easily take 44-45% in Michigan.  46-47% is more likely based on my assumption that Romney will win the general

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

EPIC usually has an epic GOP-leaning sample, sometimes with more Republicans than Democrats.

Was also the case in 2008 polling:

End May 2008 EPIC poll: McCain+4
End June 2008 PPP poll: Obama+9

Final result: Obama+16

Agree  but it was in may and june, before the financial crisis...

It was also during/just after the MI/Florida DNC seating controversy, which probably dragged Obama's numbers down in both states.

[pbrower2a]

EPIC usually has an epic GOP-leaning sample, sometimes with more Republicans than Democrats.

Was also the case in 2008 polling:

End May 2008 EPIC poll: McCain+4
End June 2008 PPP poll: Obama+9

Final result: Obama+16

Agree  but it was in may and june, before the financial crisis...

It was also during/just after the MI/Florida DNC seating controversy, which probably dragged Obama's numbers down in both states.

Good explanation of 2008. EPIC polls no other state, so we have only other pollsters to compare to.