VA-Quinnipiac: Obama+5

[Tender Branson]

Poll: Obama leads in Virginia

President Obama has a five point lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to a new poll.

Quinnipiac's latest survey shows Obama besting Romney 47 to 42 percent in the state. That's down slightly from March, where Obama led Romney by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Adding Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell to the Republican ticket does not significantly alter the result, the poll finds. The Obama-Biden ticket still beats the Romney-McDonnell ticket 48 percent to 43 percent.

As in other states, Obama has built his small lead on women — where he leads 51 percent to 35 percent. Romney edges Obama among men, 49 to 44 percent.

"His lead over Romney is built upon a continuing gender gap that favors him – essentially the president stays close among men while he is very strong among women,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac polling.

Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/06/obama-leads-in-virginia-125524.html

[Tender Branson]

It's possible:

In 2000, VA was 8.0% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2004, VA was 3.2% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2008, VA was 3.5% LESS Republican than FL.

If these trends continue, VA will be about 8-11% more Democratic than FL this year.

[Tender Branson]

It's not hard to believe that VA will be about 53-44 (especially if Goode makes the ballot).

And FL either a tie, or 1 or 2 points in either direction.