VA-Quinnipiac: Obama+5

[Brittain33]

It's really hard to see VA and FL voting 11 points apart as per these Q polls. Really hard.

[Brittain33]

It's possible:

In 2000, VA was 8.0% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2004, VA was 3.2% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2008, VA was 3.5% LESS Republican than FL.

If these trends continue, VA will be about 8-11% more Democratic than FL this year.

The 2008 trend in VA was driven in part by people in the Torie income bracket in NoVa shifting to Obama. They're swinging back to the Republicans somewhat. It's hard to see VA voting substantially more D in 2012 than it did in 2008 unless the national baseline is moving.

[Brittain33]

It's possible:

In 2000, VA was 8.0% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2004, VA was 3.2% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2008, VA was 3.5% LESS Republican than FL.

If these trends continue, VA will be about 8-11% more Democratic than FL this year.

If those trends continue VA will eventually be >100% more Democratic than FL.

I have a hard time seeing such a sustained and dramatic change in 12 years. That's like comparing Vermont and West Virginia from 1988 to 2008 or similar.

[Brittain33]

It's possible:

In 2000, VA was 8.0% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2004, VA was 3.2% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2008, VA was 3.5% LESS Republican than FL.

If these trends continue, VA will be about 8-11% more Democratic than FL this year.

If those trends continue VA will eventually be >100% more Democratic than FL.

I have a hard time seeing such a sustained and dramatic change in 12 years. That's like comparing Vermont and West Virginia from 1988 to 2008 or similar.

Sarcasm fail?

Lack of transition fail. I was agreeing with you.