did obama under-perform in ia and mn in 08?

[Nichlemn]

Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Where elasticity is defined as the amount the state would swing with a 1% uniform swing:

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[Nichlemn]

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That's relevant, but a demographic argument gives weight to the hypothesis that it's not just noise or the idiosyncrasies of the specific races.