The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Places like Ben's example simply don't exist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.

It could be in Louisiana. 17% Catholic isn't too far fetched for somewhere like central Virginia or western Tennessee either. The 80% affiliated in general is a bit too far fetched though and even moreso is 2% Jewish. In the rural South even 0.2% Jewish would be hard to find.

But that's not really what I was objecting to. Rather it was the income level. You don't have rural places in the South that are over a quarter black that have a median income of almost $80k and that are also 5% Latino. That's only feasible if it's really some exurb (like all those ugly places in Georgia), but then it's going to be a hell of a lot whiter, or at least have a higher Latino than black population. 4% Asian and 3% "Other" too, so it's 12% non-white or black. Try finding a rural southern county with a non-white/black population in the double digits percentage (with the obvious exception of that Reservation area in North Carolina and any similar area.) Those racial numbers actually look like a south central Minneapolis neighborhood near the I-35W corridor, which obviously you won't find replicated in the rural south. The only way I could possibly see those numbers working is if there was some type of college in the town, and even that would drive the income numbers down, that being my main objection.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%

This sounds like a working class neighborhood in Boston or somewhere like where Keystone Phil lives, so probably around 50-60% Obama. 1% evangelical for a 7% black neighborhood though isn't feasible and even ignoring that this place would have to be incredibly insular and isolated if that few people have converted, even San Francisco is well over 1% evangelical.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They can be quite diverse (we even have black Lutheran churches here believe it or not), but obviously not all would be considered mainline. Even if we assume that is the case in this area though you still have only 1% of people having converted to an evangelical church, which I doubt is even the case in the Castro District.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the OP, the only places I can see such a city being feasible are suburban Chicago or somewhere in Ohio, in the former it'd probably be well over 60% Obama but inflated obviously, for the latter probably around 50/50.