The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread

[All Along The Watchtower]

In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%

[All Along The Watchtower]

It depends heavily on the history of the metropolitan area it's a suburb of. If it's an ancestrally German metro area like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, probably Republican. If it's more Eastern European or Irish like Cleveland or Chicago, more swingy or possibly Democratic. The income level looks a bit too high to me for it to be really Democratic. Then again, the religious affiliation level looks really low to be Republican unless there is some Evangelical component that is religious but doesn't show up in affiliation stats.

Interesting points. And yeah, I guess I did make the religious affiliation too low.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%

About 65% R bearing in mind these are rich southern whites.

It's rural rich Southern white, so more like 70-75% R.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Another hypothetical place.

Type: Suburb
Region: West
Population: 52,000
Race: White (84%), Hispanic (11%), Asian (3%), Black (1%), Other (1%)
Median household income: $78,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 41%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (52%), Evangelical Protestant (23%), Mainline Protestant (16%) , Others (9%)
Percent of married couple households: 61%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (92%), College graduate (56%), Graduate degrees (18%)
 
 

[All Along The Watchtower]

The west is hard to tell. If the place PR posted was in Socal (which it probably isn't due to the low Hispanic population) it would be Republican. In the Bay Area it would be Democrat. It's probably up in the northwest though and probably votes Republican but voted for Obama. Correct?

Also where are you getting religious data for cities?

I was actually thinking of certain suburbs of Denver in Colorado when I posted that.