The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread

[tpfkaw]

Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%

[tpfkaw]

I was under the impression HBCs were considered "mainline."

[tpfkaw]

This is a real place:

Type: Suburban
Region: Northeast
Population: 28,000
Race: White (80%), Asian (12%), Latino (5%), Black (1%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $140,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 66%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (77%), Mainline Protestant (12%), Evangelical Protestant (2%), Other (9%, mainly Jewish)
Percentage of married couple households: 64%

[tpfkaw]

That could either be a super republican exurb or a formerly rockefeller republican now solidly  (60-70) democratic town, although I'd lean towards the democratic option

The second is correct; it's Wellesley, MA, ground zero for the latte liberal.  Until 1988, it only once voted for a Democrat (LBJ in 1964, and narrowly), and until recently it sent Republicans to the State House (including arch-conservative Proposition 2 1/2 author Roy Switzer in the 70s and 80s; he was defeated 60-40 trying to regain his old seat in 2010).  It has voted for Democrats every election since 1992, voted 65% for Obama in 2008, and was won by Martha Coakley by a razor-thin margin of 12 votes against Scott Brown.  (Good that you got it even though my religion statistics were wrong; they're for Norfolk County - I was thinking that the Jewish percentage looked very low).

[tpfkaw]

Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Was googling "town name religious demographics," but it turns out the website with that data was for the county, not the town.

[tpfkaw]

Another real place:

Type: Small city
Region: West
Population: 55,000
Race: White (71%), Hispanic (21%), Asian (2%), American Indian (2%), Black (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 37%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (57%), Evangelical Protestant (18%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Others (11%, mainly Mormon) - actually is for the location in question this time!
Percent of married couple households: 46%