Suprassing 300 electoral votes?

[muon2]

Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

[muon2]

Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(

If I use the current numbers from 538 and cut off at less than 90% sure the map looks like this:

If I cut off at less than 95% sure the map looks like this:

[muon2]

If I extend the theme of my maps I can create a table showing the base EV at each level of likelihood. For example the 95% likely map from 538 gives Obama 149 and Romney 152. Here's how that changes with likelihood:

	Obama	Romney
95%	149	152
90%	207	155
85%	210	166
80%	237	181
75%	247	191
70%	251	206
65%	257	206
60%	276	235
55%	285	235
50%	303	235

Clearly Obama has a lot more EV leaning his way than Romney does. Even so, Obama only breaks 300 EV when all states are allocated (ie 50%). Romney needs to get the states that are less than 80% likely for Obama to break 300.