Suprassing 300 electoral votes?

[Penelope]

Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

If the economy is reasonably good, Obama outspent Romney, and Romney didn't do so hot in the debates, Obama will probably take just about every swing state.

Obama: 368

However, if the economy is pretty bad or stagnant, Romney outspent Obama, and Romney had some good moments during the debates, Romney probably wins every swing state.

Romney: 322

[Penelope]

Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(