CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 7

[mondale84]

Obama: 49
Romney: 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_061912.pdf

[pbrower2a]

From PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[President von Cat]

Junk poll.

Joking.. sort of. I have a hard time believing Obama could have a seven point lead based solely on overwhelming support from Hispanics and middling support from white folks. Or is Colorado really that minority heavy?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

From PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't these racial splits similar to his victory in CO in 2008?  As in, barely winning whites and getting in the low 60s with Hispanics.  This poll is probably pretty close to where Colorado actually is right now.  Probably more like Obama +5 but I would venture to guess he is leading in the state. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The age gap in Colorado is hilarious, judging from this and other polls.

Colorado Republicans essentially have no future whatsoever.

[krazen1211]

Using the Miles rule its basically a tossup. Thanks.

[Niemeyerite]

Using the Miles rule its basically a tossup. Thanks.

I'm glad you're so optimistic about Romney chances

[krazen1211]

Using the Miles rule its basically a tossup. Thanks.

I'm glad you're so optimistic about Romney chances

In Colorado? I am not.

[Umengus]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

[MorningInAmerica]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

[timothyinMD]

Right.. Obama's approval is negative 10 with independents but he leads by 10 among the same group..

+7 in Colorado is unlikely with national polls tied.  Obama +2-3 I'd believe.

Btw.. voting is not zero sum.. young people voting D now does not mean they are D the rest of their lives.  Life in the real world tends to turn people to voting R

[tpfkaw]

Yeah, young people have always been a strong D group - it's not even so much that Obama has been strong among young people so much as Kerry and especially Gore were quite weak.

[opebo]

Life in the real world tends to turn people to voting R

Not when they have no jobs.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah, young people have always been a strong D group - it's not even so much that Obama has been strong among young people so much as Kerry and especially Gore were quite weak.

Actually, when I first became old enough to vote, the youngest voters were the most Republican group.

[5280]

I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

[DrScholl]

Moderates just aren't crossing over enough for Romney to actually win the state. Even among those who don't necessarily approve of Obama, the alternative is not an option for them. Likely Democratic.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Colorado seems to me like it would be a better state for Romney than for most other Republican candidates.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Whoa, PPP is really sinking this year. I can believe that Obama is ahead. But he sure ain't this far ahead.

[backtored]

Junk poll.

Joking.. sort of. I have a hard time believing Obama could have a seven point lead based solely on overwhelming support from Hispanics and middling support from white folks. Or is Colorado really that minority heavy?

Colorado's Hispanic vote is actually a very small slice of the electorate.  If Obama's tanking white voters in Colorado, then his hope for Colorado's nine votes is slimming.

[5280]

Junk poll.

Joking.. sort of. I have a hard time believing Obama could have a seven point lead based solely on overwhelming support from Hispanics and middling support from white folks. Or is Colorado really that minority heavy?

Colorado's Hispanic vote is actually a very small slice of the electorate.  If Obama's tanking white voters in Colorado, then his hope for Colorado's nine votes is slimming.

It would be great to see where this poll is getting their demographics from and what parts of the state and cities.

[backtored]

The age gap in Colorado is hilarious, judging from this and other polls.

Colorado Republicans essentially have no future whatsoever.

Actually, Republicans have been out-registering Democrats for the last couple of years.  Either Granny and Gramps are suddenly becoming voters, or PPP is just plain wrong.

[backtored]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

Where are those numbers from?  Republicans have an active registration advantage of +5 in Colorado.

[pbrower2a]

I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

Colorado has been drifting D. The Romney campaign must go to heroic efforts to win Colorado... OR win some state that has been assumed stalwart D but has been drifting R and is nearly ripe for the picking. Just look at the 2010 election, which should have been a big win for Republicans in Colorado.

Rasmussen is right and has the state as a virtual tie, PPP has the state on the fringe of contention, or else Colorado is weak D.

It is safe to say that Colorado is one state that went for Dubya reliably but has turned on any legacy of his policies. Such happens the other way, too -- think of Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia, the sorts of states that used to be reliably D in all but R landslides but that went R about twelve years ago as the political culture has changed.  

Mitt Romney can win Colorado, but for such to happen he must force a nationwide shift in voting in his favor or President Obama must endure some political calamity that nobody can foresee. Romney may be consolidating the vote that went for Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum in the primaries, but that will not be enough with which to win in November. He must basically take back the demographic of the old Rockefeller Republicans who are well-educated, liberal on social values, center-leaning on economics, and hostile to crime. Reagan and Bush won those in the 1980s... and Romney needs them back fast.

[backtored]

Colorado seems to me like it would be a better state for Romney than for most other Republican candidates.

It is, and most of the polling confirms that.  I could go down to the local Baskin Robbins and get a better sample than PPP.

[5280]

Colorado seems to me like it would be a better state for Romney than for most other Republican candidates.

It is, and most of the polling confirms that.  I could go down to the local Baskin Robbins and get a better sample than PPP.

Or Cold Stone Creamery, lol.