Quinn: FL: Obama and Nelson ahead
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  Quinn: FL: Obama and Nelson ahead
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Author Topic: Quinn: FL: Obama and Nelson ahead  (Read 2350 times)
Ben Romney
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« on: June 21, 2012, 05:12:17 AM »

They moved the party ID from R+3 in May to D+3 in June - LOL

FLORIDA-President: Obama: 47/49
Obama/Romney: 46/42

FLORIDA-SENATE:
Nelson/Mack: 43/39

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1766
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2012, 05:29:18 AM »

Quinn is usually accurate pollster but sometimes it goes off the reservation.
If we are to believe its polling Obama has gone from 6% down to 4% up with bad economic news.
In Quinn’s poll the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
Trash the poll!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2012, 06:21:09 AM »

Quinn is usually accurate pollster but sometimes it goes off the reservation.
If we are to believe its polling Obama has gone from 6% down to 4% up with bad economic news.
In Quinn’s poll the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
Trash the poll!

To some extent polls reflect the news cycle. Those of the last couple of weeks reflect a poor news cycle, and those today reflect a quiet one. Independent voters are the most volatile of voters; the most partisan are going to trivialize the significance of what seems a tangential topic to the big picture in politics.

For independent votes "Romney vs. Obama" isn't the big picture. Economic security and opportunity, sexual freedom or 'purity', whether other nations fear America or deride America, whether shaky allies rally behind pliable leaders or seek real independence... are the big issues.

There have been recent polls (but not by Quinnipiac) in Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin... and they show the President tied or behind there. Florida is very different from those states. The big news isn't whether the last poll in a state was by PPP. Quinnipiac (which polls far fewer states), or Rasmussen. What says more is that one Q poll in Florida has Obama up 3 and anothe has him down 3 or a Rasmussen poll has Obama in Kentucky down 13 and another has him down 7.

Polls are stills within a motion picture, and one still cannot tell what the motion picture is in entirety. Maybe the last scene is the most important, and the last scene is the electoral results. We are a long way from the closing scene. But certain conventions of drama are predictable; the hardened villain is unlikely to make a 180-degree change in values and become a tender-hearted humanitarian, and the stuck-up virgin is unlikely to become a whore. Obviously one does not expect Oklahoma to end up for President Obama or Vermont to go for Romney.

 
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2012, 08:24:32 AM »

Quinn is usually accurate pollster but sometimes it goes off the reservation.
If we are to believe its polling Obama has gone from 6% down to 4% up with bad economic news.
In Quinn’s poll the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
Trash the poll!

I believe the wrong poll was the one that showed Romney ahead by 6.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2012, 08:47:57 AM »

Looks about right.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2012, 09:03:47 AM »

46-42 has way too many undecideds it seems to me for the POTUS race.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2012, 09:21:01 AM »

From Romney by 6 to Obama by 4.  What does this tell us?  Florida is going to be close, like it always is.  Romney certainly needs it more than Obama, though.  You know both candidates are going to dump a ton of money into the state.

I'd say if the election were held right now Romney would take it by 1-2 pts. 
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2012, 09:31:16 AM »

Romney/Rubio will win FL by 4%-6%!
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2012, 10:02:14 AM »

every since the republicans and issa turned from focusing on jobs to attacking obama and democrats obama numbers have been rising.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2012, 10:14:15 AM »

I participated in this poll. Smiley
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2012, 10:43:40 AM »

Right because seeking justice for an AMERICAN AGENT who was murdered with weapons given TO criminal FROM the US government is some radical right wing witch hunt
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mondale84
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2012, 12:19:46 PM »


Yeah but Rubio won't be the VP pick so...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2012, 12:22:35 PM »

46-42 has way too many undecideds it seems to me for the POTUS race.

Why? It's only June. Frankly I'm a lot more suspicious of those polls showing undecideds in the single digits.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2012, 12:49:30 PM »

46-42 has way too many undecideds it seems to me for the POTUS race.

Why? It's only June. Frankly I'm a lot more suspicious of those polls showing undecideds in the single digits.

I just don't think that many are truly undecided in this polarized race. It reads more like the number who might change their current leans.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2012, 03:25:41 PM »

"President Obama ahead by 15 points"

'Fake poll!"

"Mitt Romney ahead by 5 points"

"Great News!!! we can do this!"
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2012, 05:00:58 PM »

If you want to believe a poll that gives Obama a 15% advantage, that's your prerogative.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2012, 06:12:05 PM »

Quinn is usually accurate pollster but sometimes it goes off the reservation.
If we are to believe its polling Obama has gone from 6% down to 4% up with bad economic news.
In Quinn’s poll the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
Trash the poll!

Quit your bitchin', boy! Tongue
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