Quinn is usually accurate pollster but sometimes it goes off the reservation.
If we are to believe its polling Obama has gone from 6% down to 4% up with bad economic news.
In Quinn’s poll the swing has occurred for two reasons: (1)A swing in the Part ID by 6 in favor of the Dems and(2) Quinn says that in May ,Indies were in Romney’s camp by +10,but in June they are in Obama’s camp by +10.
If we are to believe this poll,then Romney is more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than in FL.
Trash the poll!
To some extent polls reflect the news cycle. Those of the last couple of weeks reflect a poor news cycle, and those today reflect a quiet one. Independent voters are the most volatile of voters; the most partisan are going to trivialize the significance of what seems a tangential topic to the big picture in politics.
For independent votes "Romney vs. Obama" isn't the big picture. Economic security and opportunity, sexual freedom or 'purity', whether other nations fear America or deride America, whether shaky allies rally behind pliable leaders or seek real independence... are the big issues.
There have been recent polls (but not by Quinnipiac) in Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin... and they show the President tied or behind there. Florida is very different from those states. The big news isn't whether the last poll in a state was by PPP. Quinnipiac (which polls far fewer states), or Rasmussen. What says more is that one Q poll in Florida has Obama up 3 and anothe has him down 3 or a Rasmussen poll has Obama in Kentucky down 13 and another has him down 7.
Polls are stills within a motion picture, and one still cannot tell what the motion picture is in entirety. Maybe the last scene is the most important, and the last scene is the electoral results. We are a long way from the closing scene. But certain conventions of drama are predictable; the hardened villain is unlikely to make a 180-degree change in values and become a tender-hearted humanitarian, and the stuck-up virgin is unlikely to become a whore. Obviously one does not expect Oklahoma to end up for President Obama or Vermont to go for Romney.
