Much more at link. I doubt we'll get down to $2/gal by Nov (or ever again for that matter), but we seem to be finding new sources everyday, and they are rarely in an OPEC country or Russia. It will surely help the economies of the West and hurt the economies of our enemies in Tehran, Caracas and Moscow. On the negative side, more SUVs on the road.
What do our peak oil fanboys think of this? Those threads were always funny.
It is good for developing economies (e.g., Brazil and Ghana come to mind) but in the distant future we may still require quite a bit of oil for cheaply fabricating synthetic materials and for use in many other industrial processes. Using it for fuel today instead of retaining vast quantities of the substance’s finite natural supply in reserve for the needs of future generations is nearsighted at best, in my opinion, and at its worst could be setting the stage for major economic (and possibly environmental) challenges for people to contend with at some point decades or centuries down the line. As a matter of principle, I generally oppose expanded production of either oil or coal.
There are no flawless alternatives on the table right now but I would much prefer to have renewable energy playing a larger role in providing electricity, nuclear fission replacing coal in terms of generating baseload power, and automobiles going electric to draw off of those relatively clean and sustainable sources in urban areas while using natural gas as a stopgap solution for powering vehicles in rural areas until better batteries can be produced. While I will cede that past predictions of peak oil have apparently been miscalculated, and a catastrophic collapse of the economy as we know it is far from nigh, I reckon that we ought to be planning ahead rather than living in the moment when it comes to the extraction and consumption of raw resources.
It's quite probable that only the 1% will be able to afford SUV's and obesity in 20 years, as 'muricans will be forced into smaller cars and more trips by foot/bike. Or is that not the kind of end civilization you are talking about?
In cities and developed areas that have high population densities? Absolutely. My concern is more for if/when gas prices are very high in a region like mine, where the average household income is already below the national average and a lot of folks cannot do business without traveling over twenty or forty miles per day. If the changes occur gradually perhaps they’ll adjust their habits and places of residence accordingly, but in my limited experience human beings are not always wise, rational economic actors. We’ll endure and make the best of what we’ve got, sure, but...
Nonetheless, I worry high fuel prices could someday place a rather heavy burden on our respective measures of actionable freedom/autonomy/whatever as we are forced to more strictly reserve our money for satisfying basic needs relative to satisfying our wants. Maybe some of that is inevitable one way or another, but I do think at this time that the wanton exploitation of finite oil reserves poses a very serious, latent threat to the living conditions and general welfare of hundreds of millions of Americans (not to mention billions of people living elsewhere) yet to be born. A balance needs to be struck between lifting people up on the growth and prosperity fossil fuels have made possible and preparing ourselves for a world where development is powered by other sources.
If you could explain to me how markets will steer firms more toward taking long-term human interests into account than simply focusing on their own, short-term desires for profit it would be much appreciated, but I otherwise feel obliged to insist on distrusting actors in the private sector - corporate executives, investors, and even consumers, e.g. - to pursue prudent, socially responsible courses of action when left to their own devices. Is the status quo in regards to energy production going to remain firmly entrenched until people are suffering badly? Or might I be making the same kind of mistake many of my opponents do when they distrust the public sector to pull through on a variety of other tasks and social responsibilities? What are your thoughts? :<
