NH-ARG: Obama up 8

[Tender Branson]

American Research Group:

51% Obama
43% Romney

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/25/obama_leads_in_new_hampshire.html

[MorningInAmerica]

Among voters who say they are definitely going to vote in November, however, Romney trails just 49-46%. It is a slightly smaller subset than the rest of the sample, but the poll isn't of likely voters anyway.

[pbrower2a]

Among voters who say they are definitely going to vote in November, however, Romney trails just 49-46%. It is a slightly smaller subset than the rest of the sample, but the poll isn't of likely voters anyway.

The Obama campaign relied heavily upon personal suasion in 2008 and will do so again in 2012. The idea is to get out the leaners.

[Tender Branson]

Don't interpret too much into "people who now say they are definitely voting in November".

This will only start getting interesting in polls 1 week after the Democratic convention.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

New Hampshire is a wild card state; in a 50/50 race, I can easily see it going for Romney, even if Obama wins nationally. Remember, it went for Bush in 2000.

[Tender Branson]

Don't interpret too much into "people who now say they are definitely voting in November".

This will only start getting interesting in polls 1 week after the Democratic convention.

As a reference, here is the 2004 convention bounce for Kerry and Bush:



At the end of July, after the DNC, Kerry bounced from 45.5% to 48%. The fact that Bush also bounced at that time was probably because of the 1-minute Swift Boat ad that was released at that time as well.

Then in early September, after the GOP convention, Bush went from 45.5% to 50.5%. while Kerry went from 45.5% to about 43%.

The early July bounce for Kerry was probably because he picked Edwards at this time.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320120624001

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Still copying other people's data I see.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The most recent poll out of New Hampsire I've seen has President Obama leading by 5 points, but it is a swing state, so I guess we'll just have to see...

[morgieb]

It's ARG. I'm not sure what to make of this...

[Tender Branson]

It's ARG. I'm not sure what to make of this...

ARG's record in NH is about "meh":

In 2008, they said Obama by 56-41, he won by 54-45.

In 2004, their best year, they said Bush/Kerry are tied at 47% - Kerry won 50-49.

In 2000, they said Bush by 48-38 with Nader at 9 and Buchanan at 2. Bush won 48-47-4-1.