How will the Supreme Court's Health Care Reform ruling ...
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Poll
Question: impact President Obama's approval ratings in the coming days/weeks ?
#1
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals rise
#2
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals sink
#3
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals not changing
#4
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals rise
#5
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals sink
#6
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals not changing
#7
Reform upheld/Approvals rise
#8
Reform upheld/Approvals sink
#9
Reform upheld/Approvals not changing
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Author Topic: How will the Supreme Court's Health Care Reform ruling ...  (Read 19282 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 28, 2012, 12:01:46 AM »

What do you think ?

I'll be pessimistic and say Option 3: Reform thrown completely out/Approvals not changing
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2012, 12:07:14 AM »

My guess- Reform thrown completely out/Approvals not changing-- maybe sinking slightly due to negative press coverage.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2012, 12:12:39 AM »

Safe bet: It will be a 5-4 decision.
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2012, 12:14:59 AM »

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2012, 12:20:41 AM »
« Edited: June 28, 2012, 12:22:32 AM by Beet »

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

Well, two points (1) it would be rightly seen as the fault of the Supreme Court. Even those who oppose the law admit that it being thrown out was highly unlikely in early 2010. No one could have been expected to foresee such activism. (2), Obama's approvals aren't based on "his signature achievement." They're based on the fact that he's a Democrat, the state of the economy, and his personal character. Obamacare being thrown out wouldn't lead his support to collapse. Only if he betrayed his party in some fundamental way (nearly impossible), the economy crashed into a depression, or a Edwards/Nixon-style personal scandal would do that. But yeah the negative news coverage would probably hurt his ratings.
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Franzl
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2012, 12:22:16 AM »

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

Well, it would be rightly seen as the fault of the Supreme Court. Even those who oppose the law admit that it being thrown out was highly unlikely in early 2010. No one could have been expected to foresee such activism. But yeah the negative news coverage would probably hurt his ratings.

You seem to be misinformed. It's not activism if Republicans do it.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2012, 12:30:18 AM »

The mandate will likely get thrown out and a poopstorm will break out. Court approvals will fall significantly no matter what they do though.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2012, 12:36:11 AM »

Option 3 is my first guess.  Behind that is that it's partially thrown out.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2012, 12:38:42 AM »

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2012, 12:40:17 AM »

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.

If either of his appointees throws out any part of the bill, that would obviously be a huge Romney victory.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2012, 12:42:07 AM »

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down, but not sure on the rest of the law. I think it'll sink Obama a couple points. I think it'll be a good ending to another good month for Romney. If its struck down, I'd certainly argue Romney "won" May and June.
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2012, 12:43:06 AM »

Most of us already know whats going to happen. The republican supreme court will of course throw it out. i would be shock if the polls,intrade,ect were wrong. But it's quite obvious whats going to happen. 9 judges get to decide millions of peoples heathcare plan.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2012, 12:45:24 AM »

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.

If either of his appointees throws out any part of the bill, that would obviously be a huge Romney victory.

The only thing I could see his appointees throwing out is the mandate though the unpopular part would be deciding what provisions are linked and go out with it.

Maybe they could troll a bit and strike down the state-level mandate in Massachusetts too? Tongue
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President von Cat
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2012, 03:59:49 AM »

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down, but not sure on the rest of the law. I think it'll sink Obama a couple points. I think it'll be a good ending to another good month for Romney. If its struck down, I'd certainly argue Romney "won" May and June.

I wouldn't, and opinion polls would agree with me.
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2012, 06:20:30 AM »

 If it goes 5-4 then it was political.
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Harry
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2012, 07:32:01 AM »

The mandate will be upheld; Obama's approval won't have any immediate effects, but in the long run it will be good for him, just because it avoids the disaster of the mandate being thrown out.
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Harry
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2012, 07:34:38 AM »

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down

No you aren't.  You might turn out to be right, but you, like everyone else, don't have a clue.  It's all just guessing.
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Franzl
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2012, 07:45:55 AM »

So when can we expect the ruling?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2012, 08:11:37 AM »

So when can we expect the ruling?

10:00 ET. Only 50 minutes to go now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2012, 08:56:05 AM »

Is there a live-stream or will there be a press release ?
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2012, 09:01:49 AM »

If it goes 5-4 then it was political.

Yup, the 4 should join the 5 and make it unanimous.  I think you could get a 9-0 decision to partially overturn it.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2012, 09:04:22 AM »

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

I sort of see the opposite.  If the SC strikes down DemocratCare, then the GOP loses one of its biggest voter-mobilization arguments -- that "we must elect Republicans to the WH and Congress who will repeal it".

Meanwhile, I think the Democrats' base will be newly inspired.

So, ironically, the GOP should hope it's upheld while the Democrats hope it's struck down. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2012, 09:05:01 AM »

Is there a live-stream or will there be a press release ?

Press release.  Stolen valor act unconstitutional.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2012, 09:09:14 AM »

This baby is coming down.
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2012, 09:09:44 AM »

Mandate survives?
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