Do you think the Health Care Act is as unpopular in 2012 as in 2010 elections?

[Miles]

Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.

I don't think Obama's stance on gay marriage will hurt his prospects much with black voters.

PPP polled NC right after Amendment 1 passed and found this:

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That was also after Obama announced his stance on gay marriage.