Miles' Election Map Thread

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Out of curiosity, how racially polarized is that map? At least some areas look like a sharp black/white divide.

(and on that note, did Obama win whites in New Orleans in either 2008 or 2012?)

[Miles]

Out of curiosity, how racially polarized is that map? At least some areas look like a sharp black/white divide.

(and on that note, did Obama win whites in New Orleans in either 2008 or 2012?)

Basically, the wealthier (read whiter) a precinct was, the more likely it was to vote against Jefferson. Jefferson held serve in the 9th ward and into Mid-City and Gentilly, all heavily black areas.

I haven't sifted through 2012 yet, but in 2008, Obama won the majority-white VAP precincts in Orleans Parisg 58-39. The big exception to that was Lakeview, the neighborhood that I was born and raised in (its on the western end of the parish is actually in CD1). Lakeview is 85%-ish white and was 67-31 McCain.

[Mr.Phips]

LA-04 in 2008




If the election was in November instead of December, that would have probably done the trick for Carmouche; he would have had Presidential turnout and upticket help from Landrieu. Even so, I suppose this district would have been hard for any Democrat to hold down the line in 2010.

The results by parish:

Democrats should have sued when Jindal tried to help Republicans by scheduling a needless runoff election in December.  There was no reason not to have the primary in early October as usual and then the general election/or runoff on election day in early November. 

[homelycooking]

Gray precincts in Vernon Parish?

[Miles]

Gray precincts in Vernon Parish?

They were empty.

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact about MilesC56: My aunt and uncle are in the FBI and they oversaw the prosecution of Bill Jefferson.

This better become a series with the two 2006 elections and the 2008 general and ideally the 2010 and 2012 generals as well. Else I am going to be very disappointed.

[Miles]

This better become a series with the two 2006 elections and the 2008 general and ideally the 2010 and 2012 generals as well. Else I am going to be very disappointed.

Ok, sure!

I already have the 2008 general.

[minionofmidas]

This better become a series with the two 2006 elections and the 2008 general and ideally the 2010 and 2012 generals as well. Else I am going to be very disappointed.

Ok, sure!

I already have the 2008 general.

Actually, strike 2012 I guess. (Not that I wouldn't like to see it - I would - but it'd not really part of the series.)

[Miles]

Ok, guys, I just got off the phone with a guy from the NC State Board of Elections. He said that most early and absentee votes should be allocated by precinct by next week. Thats been the main holdup for me so far, otherwise I would have made tons of NC 2012 stuff out by now.

[Miles]

I came across these maps of the 2011 legislative elections that I had forgotten about:

My uncle, Rep. Chris Hazel, won reelection in 2011. Chris holds a seat based in eastern Rapides Parish; his opponent was actually endorsed by Jindal. In the previous session, Chris and Jindal had crossed swords over the privatization of the state's prisons. Though I thought this would be closer, Chris swept all but 1 precinct in the district.



This was another interesting race that turned out quite nicley; Rep. Nick Larusso is a good family friend. Because of the population loss, New Orleans lost a seat in the State House. Nick was drawn with another Representative, Johnny Labruzzo. Labruzzo had a reputation for being an aggressive blowhard; among other things, he was known for being "unapologetically pro-life" and advocated a plan that would sterilize welfare recipients. Its politicians like LaBruzzo that make Louisiana look bad.

Nick and LaBruzzo had each represented about 50% of the new district. Nick's base was in the Orleans Parish neighborhood were I grew up, Lakeview. LaBruzzo is from an area across the canal in Jefferson Parish called Bucktown. Looking at the map, its pretty obvious where Orleans ends and Jefferson starts.

What worried me here was that LaBruzzo has campaign signs everywhere. It seemed like you saw his face at every darn intersection. Thankfully, on election day, Nick did a better job of turning out his base. In Nick won the Orleans precincts 70/30, while LaBruzzo only carried his Jefferson turf 60/40.

[minionofmidas]

Its politicians like LaBruzzo that make Louisiana pro-lifers look bad.

Corrected.

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Painfully obvious.

[morgieb]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

[Miles]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

I'd consider him a pretty generic R. He ran on 'family values' both times.

[morgieb]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

I'd consider him a pretty generic R. He ran on 'family values' both times.

Ah. Here I was thinking he was Tea Party lol.

[Miles]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

I'd consider him a pretty generic R. He ran on 'family values' both times.

Ah. Here I was thinking he was Tea Party lol.

LOL, quite the opposite.

He's been accused of being a RINO in the past!

[smoltchanov]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

I'd consider him a pretty generic R. He ran on 'family values' both times.

Ah. Here I was thinking he was Tea Party lol.

LOL, quite the opposite.

He's been accused of being a RINO in the past!

It's Louisiana after all)) You can't be "too conservative" there)) But easily - "too liberal")))

[minionofmidas]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

[smoltchanov]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

[minionofmidas]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

It makes him less conservative than the other guy. -_-

[smoltchanov]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

It makes him less conservative than the other guy. -_-

True...

[Miles]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

It makes him less conservative than the other guy. -_-

True...

This is why I'm a centrist.

'Forget ideological purity, its usually a choice between the lesser of two evils now..Boustany vs. Landry would be a good example.

[Miles]

And here we geaux!!

I finally have the precinct data for NC!

Let's start off with one of my favorite results of the night!





Performance Maps:

MCINTYRE


ROUZER

[old timey villain]

Hey Miles, love your maps! I had a quick question about Landrieu.

We've seen so many of the southern dem senators fall since she took office in 1997, but she keeps getting reelected, even in '08 with Obama at the top of the ticket- I assume he was NOT popular there, even then. She's approaching legacy status, what with her family name and her three terms, but she's by no means safe. All of her elections have been very close. It seems like she's perennially unpopular with about half of the electorate but she keeps holding on, so how does she do it??

edit: she won by seven in 2008, so not that close, but still kinda close!

[smoltchanov]

This is why I'm a centrist.

'Forget ideological purity, its usually a choice between the lesser of two evils now..Boustany vs. Landry would be a good example.

Me too (though i am more conservative fiscally and more liberal socially then you). And exactly by the same reasons)))

[minionofmidas]

And here we geaux!!

I finally have the precinct data for NC!

Let's start off with one of my favorite results of the night!

Too close for comfort. Barrow's was much more heartening.