Miles' Election Map Thread

[nclib]

Etheridge also got a pretty decent win the new 7th:



Johnston county provided much of Etheridge's winning margin; without it, he still would have carried the district but only with 42.5% to Dalton's 41.5%.

Yeah baby! Who was the third candidate in this primary? where was his strength concentrated?

Bill Faison, St. Rep. from Orange and Caswell counties. Won only Caswell county.

[Miles]

Etheridge also got a pretty decent win the new 7th:



Johnston county provided much of Etheridge's winning margin; without it, he still would have carried the district but only with 42.5% to Dalton's 41.5%.

Yeah baby! Who was the third candidate in this primary? where was his strength concentrated?

Bill Faison, St. Rep. from Orange and Caswell counties. Won only Caswell county.

I only tallied totals for Etheridge and Dalton, but I'd say Faison pulled about 7-9% in this district. Faison's best county here was New Hanover, where he got 10%.

Other than  Dalton, Etheridge and Faison, the reaming 7% or so of the votes here were pretty fractured between 3 other minor candidates.

[Miles]

I meant to post this here a few days ago, but I posted it over in the NC Congressional races thread instead. Anyway, I've moved it here:

This is a look at the swing between the 2002 and 2008 cycles.






The county that swung the most against Dole was Meckleburg, closely followed by Hagan's Guilford base. Pretty much, all the major urban areas swung D by at least 20 points or better.

A few observations:

-In 2002, Dole framed herself as something of a maverick who would work in a bipartisan manner. However, as evidenced by things like her 92% party loyalty score and her Godless as, by 2008, her image as a moderate has eroded.

-Dole made inroads with blacks (winning 25%) and women in 2002, however, nominating a woman for Senate and a black man for President in 2008 helped Democrats to neutralize Dole's advantages with them.

-Perdue, McCrory and Hagan all ran ahead of their party's Presidential nominees in their home counties. Hagan did 9 points better than Obama in Guilford, Perdue did 28 points better than him in Craven and McCrory did 25 points better than McCain in Mecklenburg. Dole was the exception to this rule. While McCain got 61% in Rowan county, Dole was limited to less than 54%.

-For some reason, Bowles performed really well in the northeastern region; thats the only way I can account for the swing towards Dole there.

[Miles]

Here's the new 2nd. Etheridge didn't win here by as much he did in his old district, but he still got an outright majority.



The old 2nd was a gerrymander, but at least it had some rhyme and reason to it: it was anchored in Johnston county while on its periphery, it took in >70% Obama parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville. Overall, the liberal urban areas cancelled out Johnston to make it a Democratic-leaning seat.  

This new district is just an incoherent mix of central NC, Cary/Apex and Fayetteville cobbled together to be as Republican-friendly as possible.

[Miles]

Other than the 3 I've done so far, probably the only other district which was competitive was the old 7th. I'll do that next; 'should be pretty close.

[Vern]

Love your maps.

[Miles]

Love your maps.

[Miles]

Finally, the old 7th. It was narrow Etheridge win, though the % going to the minor candidates was relatively high here.

Interesting how the two tied yellow precincts in the middle separate the green 'Etheridge side' from the  red 'Dalton side.'

[Miles]

What they look like paired together:

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

'Expanding my range to Virginia:

I find this map oddly mesmerizing. 

[Miles]

'Expanding my range to Virginia:

I find this map oddly mesmerizing.  

Just from looking at it, I'd say Goode won. Charlottesville cancelled out all those >60% Goode precincts in the southern part though.

[Miles]

Because of vern's idea, my next set of CD maps will be from the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries!

[Miles]

Kicking off my 2008 Pres Primary maps:




I did CD2 first.

Pretty much what I expected, though those few Clinton precincts in Fayetteville kinda stand out at me since they're surrounded by overwhelmingly Obama, heavily black precincts.

[Miles]

I have another Obama/Clinton map coming soon...but it won't be from NC!

[Miles]

[homelycooking]

Oh, that's gorgeous. Well done. (Can I recommend color-striping the tied precincts, though?)

[Miles]

Oh, that's gorgeous. Well done. (Can I recommend color-striping the tied precincts, though?)

Yeah, I might start doing that as opposed to using another color (yellow in this case).

[Miles]

Comparing %'s for Obama and Clinton:

[homelycooking]

An aesthetic tip: The shades of green are not terribly distinct at the <50% level, you may want to use a different color. When I make a series of related strength maps, I prefer to use the same color for all of them - usually blue or red.

[Miles]

As I mentioned before, I'm also working on breaking down my 2 previous statewide maps of NC by CD. I'll post them as I finish them; here are 3 sets of districts I've done so far:

[Miles]

[Miles]

[Miles]

An aesthetic tip: The shades of green are not terribly distinct at the <50% level, you may want to use a different color. When I make a series of related strength maps, I prefer to use the same color for all of them - usually blue or red.

Ok, good idea Homely.

I'll keep using the green for my regular mapping, but for these strength-related maps, I'll stick to red for Ds and blue for R's.

[Miles]

Shifting gears back to the Democratic primary; here are 3 more districts. Thanks to Fuzzy for helping me crunch the numbers for these!

[Miles]

This is a pretty simple map, but I've been wondering for a while what the results of this race were on a CD-basis. With the runoff in TX last night, I thought I might as well do this map.



CD1: A pretty lackluster showing for Lincoln here, considering this was her base. Still, the results here almost exactly matched the state as a whole.

CD2: Lincoln performed very well in Little Rock, despite Halter's efforts to court Pulaski liberals; that accounts for Lincoln's fairly large margin here.

CD3: Also very close to the state as whole, but this historically R district has noticeably fewer registered Democrats than the other 3.

CD4: Texarkana served as a solid base for Halter in both the primary and runoff. There was a clear dichotomy here; Halter won the counties Texarkana corner of the district while Lincoln got stronger as the district moved towards the Delta. Halter's strength the west was enough for him to carry the district though, making CD4 a mirror opposite of the statewide picture.