1. Which are those 15 states?
Those that really were close in 2008?
GA, MT, MO, NC, IN, FL, OH
2. The one that would have been close except for the Favorite Son effect?
AZ
3. One that went for Obama by 7% but hadn't gone for any Democratic nominee since 1964
VA
4. Those that split on Dubya between 2000 and 2004 but were not close in 2008
IA NH NM
5. Those that were close in 2000 and 2004, but Bush lot them twice
MI PA WI
6. Hard to characterize
NV
No two elections are exactly alike. Except in GA and MT, the Republicans have big problems in all of those states.