A Republic Stillborn: de Gaulle loses the 1962 referendum

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the expectation of some free time, here's my new what-if idea whose rhythm and eventual completion is entirely dependent on my mood, my whims and Stephen Harper's cat.

The POD is that the General loses the 1962 referendum and the major changes in French politics and history which would come out from that. Any comments, contributions, ideas or questions would be welcome as I lay out the first steps this week.

Nice idea ! A 5th Republic without popular election of the President would become completely different from what it is IRL : that opens an impressive amount of possibilities. Looking forward to it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sounds good. Congrats to the left for mobilizing massively. Doesn't the results map look like a pretty solid win for the no side ? I'm not very sure of how populated each departement is, but from seeing such a map I'd expect the results to be more like 55/45 or at least 53/47.


Now I'm eager to find out what the legislative elections will result in ! Will we have a constituency map as well ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sounds good. Congrats to the left for mobilizing massively. Doesn't the results map look like a pretty solid win for the no side ? I'm not very sure of how populated each departement is, but from seeing such a map I'd expect the results to be more like 55/45 or at least 53/47.


Now I'm eager to find out what the legislative elections will result in ! Will we have a constituency map as well ?

But don't the yes side run up huge margins in Alsace and Brittany, whilst  no wins only narrowly in most places.

The no seems to pull equally impressive margins throughout the C-shaped old left core running from Nièvre to PACA. And its win in Ile de France is pretty solid as well.

Since the map is based on UNS, it must be correct, but I find it really surprising.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm fascinated by French politics, tell me why is that area more left-wing, as I thought (with my own limited knowledge) that the area there was more rural and from my experience, such places tend to support the right.

Actually, all I know about French political geography was taught to me by Hashemite. If you are interested, he's got a blog specifically dedicated to the topic : http://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/

Anyways, France's political geography differs from that of most other countries in that the rural/urban divide hasn't played an important role in political cleavages. Rural areas may always have been a bit more right-wing, but you can find plenty of examples of left-wing rural areas, right-wing cities, right-wing rural areas and left-wing cities. Certain lands are famous for their rural progressivism (Limousin) and a city like Paris has long been a bastion of the hard right. I think the patterns of French political geography depend more on factors such as religion, socioprofessional situation (not really social class like, say, in the UK) and historical traditions inherited from the Revolution or early 19th century. But things are much more complicated than that, and to learn more I can only advise you to read Hash's blog.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You made a map !

I'm really wondering what kind of political scene will emerge from that. With the CNIP not falling into irrelevancy, the UNR left without its raison d'être but still strong, the French right might turn to be even more fragmented than IRL. Will the President or the PM become the main institutional figure ? I assume you will avoid a complete return to the old 4th republic partitocracy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess Pinay would be the most logical choice in such scenario. Waiting to see what comes next.