OH-16: Sutton up 3 in internal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Boy if Renacci loses in this seat, I'd have to imagine the GOP is in for a world of hurt in November. Facing an incumbent makes things more difficult, but this really ought to be a slam dunk race.

Well, they're both incumbents; but, yeah, Renacci is still more of an incumbent.

I think the GOP House delegation will do pretty well in Ohio. The ceiling for Democrats this year in Ohio is 6 seats, in my mind; they'll win the 4 liberal districts plus Charlie Wilson in CD6 and Sutton here.

OH-6 is definitely our best shot and if it had the old OH-6 portions of Athens County Johnson would've probably been a mild underdog, but since it doesn't the race is probably close to a dead heat (although I think Wilson will narrowly win, as there are going to be a lot of Romney/Wilson votes here and even a pretty good number of Romney/Brown votes).  While the fact that OH-16 is looking like a dead heat is a welcome surprise (and at this point I think Sutton could win), I think Boccieri would've probably been a stronger candidate had he run.  On the other hand, it sounds like (from what I've read about him) that Renacci has developed a reputation for being somewhat inattentive to local issues/constituent service and I know he was involved in some sort of fund-raising scandal, so maybe these things are canceling out some of Renacci's advantages to a certain extent. 

And speaking of Boccieri, I think he would've had a real shot at winning if he had run against Gibbs (who is not a good fit for his district).  In fact, that seat will probably be very competitive once the Democrats find a strong candidate, but they didn't this year, so Gibbs will be fine this cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This CD (OH-16) has a 5.75% GOP PVI, so if Sutton wins it, she's a dominatrix. I don't see that happening, unless Renacci has been a fail as an incumbent. The Pubs even went to the trouble of reaching down with a little prong to the south to pick up heavily Pub North Canton to help anneal the CD to the Pub column. The Pub gerrymanderers knew very well what they were doing, and with the exception of the Dayton based CD, where they needlessly threw a Pub point away (probably due to the Austria political extinction issue), did it extremely well. It is one of the most skillful gerrymanders in the nation.

I'm surprised this is even as close as it seems to be (regardless of who wins), both for the reason you mentioned and because Sutton never struck me as someone with enough cross-party appeal to win a district like this (unlike Boccieri, who I could definitely see upsetting Renacci, even though it would still be a tough fight).  That being said, Renacci is has been a bit of a fail as an incumbent.  I remember reading an article in 2011 that was talking about how (as is often the case after large wave elections) some of the Republicans elected 2010 had already gained reputations within D.C. political circles for being complete screw-ups (and were viewed as such by both parties), but that very few people outside of D.C. and the representatives' own districts were familiar with their antics.  I don't remember all of the people mentioned, but I do remember that Renacci, Steven Palazzo, and Joe Walsh (who wasn't nearly as well-known at the time) were mentioned as examples of this. 

Btw, while I agree with Torie that the OH map was one of the most skillful gerrymanders of the cycle, I'd argue that the maps biggest weakness (since Renacci's problems are really his fault, not the map's) is that it doesn't give Gibbs an ideal district.  I don't think he's that great a fit for the district and I could see him losing if the Democrats recruited a top-tier candidate or if he found himself running in a Democratic wave year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wasn't she poised for defeat in 2010 until her opponent's sex scandals went public? And that was in a D+5 district. How is she supposed to beat a self-funder with no scandals in a R+7 district?

Frankly, Dems won't pick up any seats in Ohio this year. I don't see any future opportunities barring the retirements of popular, young incumbents like Mike Turner or Steve Latourette. Otherwise, we'll need scandal or a wave to take any back. And we will never get a majority this decade.

Nah, Ganley wasn't gonna win either way, though the sex scandal obviously didn't help.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/low-profile_libertarian_candid.html


A Libertarian candidate who sought the same congressional seat as incumbents Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci has decided to drop his longshot bid for office.




Great news! Sutton is a goner!

And to boot this guy is also from Wadsworth, the same town as Renacci. This definitely hurts Sutton.

Gotta agree.  I still could see Renacci blowing this (it really shouldn't be close given the district and Sutton's lack of cross-over appeal, but I get the impression that even many of Renacci's supporters regard him as a pretty incompetent Congressman).  I think that Boccieri would've been a much better candidate than Sutton for this district, although I don't know if he could've beaten Sutton in the Democratic primary.  That being said, this definitely makes things much harder for Sutton (who really isn't that good a fit for the district, but more power to her for making it close).  However, I have noticed that Renacci has yet to release any of his own internals to counter Sutton's which makes me wonder if his polling is also showing him trailing Sutton.  Btw, Renacci could be really screwed if the maps are redrawn for 2014, b/c I don't think he could win a competitive race (barring a Republican wave year) in a real swing district.