OH-16: Sutton up 3 in internal

[Torie]

This CD (OH-16) has a 5.75% GOP PVI, so if Sutton wins it, she's a dominatrix. I don't see that happening, unless Renacci has been a fail as an incumbent. The Pubs even went to the trouble of reaching down with a little prong to the south to pick up heavily Pub North Canton to help anneal the CD to the Pub column. The Pub gerrymanderers knew very well what they were doing, and with the exception of the Dayton based CD, where they needlessly threw a Pub point away (probably due to the Austria political extinction issue), did it extremely well. It is one of the most skillful gerrymanders in the nation.

[Torie]

The problem jdp is that some CD in the area needed to neutralize Canton, and the NE corner CD was already marginal, the Ohio River CD as drawn could not have its Pub pad diluted because of all of its Tory Dem swing voters whose vacillating loyalty to the Pub cause needs a Dem social liberal or person of color or both to be able to bank on it, and Ohio 16 of course needed the Pub parts of Stark County rather than the Dem parts, so that left the Gibbs seat to do the job. Every Pub CD in this part of the state that did not itself otherwise require  propping up. needed to neutralize something  Yes, it is unfortunate that Gibbs lives off in the opposite corner of the CD in empty hyper Pub Holmes County rather than having had his roots in the Canton area, but such is life. The only other alternative is to do a lot more county, city and township chops, and make the Youngstown CD more octopus-like to get it down to Canton as well as the Akron area via Kent with a prong to suck up Alliance (as per my original Pub gerrymander to the max map), but that wasn't happening (it was tough enough to get the mapped passed as it was).  

I take the longer view on these matters. If a Pub does not fit a GOP leaning CD, or no CD because he or she is a fail, that weak member of the Pub herd is culled out, but the successful Dem carnivore is leashed and has to be a moderate, or that Dem will in turn become relatively easier prey down the road if the Pubs get around to nominating a better candidate (seemingly increasingly difficult these days I understand).  So from a Pub oriented Pub policy making point of view, in the longer term, life is still beautiful.