Northern Territory, Australia - 25 August 2012

[Smid]

Thanks for the map Smid.  I'm surprised by how deep blue the former seat of McDonnell is though... Alison surely must command a lot of respect.

Where are the figures from though?  I'm surprised that Stuart has been called for the CLP.

I've just been using Antony Green's figures. The results are not yet declared, and Stuart is still considered "in doubt" and may yet change, this is just the results as they were this morning... I'll update it further down the track - possibly if the leader in any seat changes, or possibly not until the declaration of the poll, it's more just a "as things currently stand" map for interest's sake, rather than an indication of what a final result may be.

McDonnell is now known as Namatjira. With so few voters per seat, it is easy for incumbents to build up a strong personal vote. The low number of voters can also exaggerate the swing.

[Novelty]

Smid, is it me, or is there an extra Vernon island on your map in Nelson?  I thought there were only three, but you've added one more - the northernmost...

[Smid]

Smid, is it me, or is there an extra Vernon island on your map in Nelson?  I thought there were only three, but you've added one more - the northernmost...

Probably my error - I was using the redistribution maps, which seem to have high and low tide edges or something, and everything in black and white, except for electorate boundaries (in transparent red). Made things considerably more confusing than necessary. Here is a link to the boundary maps I used (I only used sheets 1 & 2). Looking at Sheet 2, you're entirely correct - it seems that northernmost "island" is actually a reef... I'll correct that tomorrow.

[BigSkyBob]

14 seats clearly CLP, 8 clearly labor, 1 Independent, 2 undecided.

Stuart could go either way, but I'd lean towards a very narrow CLP win. Arafura will also go right down to the line, but my tip would be a very narrow Labor win. Both could go CLP, both could go Labor.

In the end though, it doesn't particularly matter, the CLP are the new territory government.

Two undecided seats go to CLP. 16-8-1.

[Smid]

2012 Northern Territory Election - 2CP Swing


Swing according to Antony Green.


2012 Northern Territory Election - Primary Vote Winner



2012 Northern Territory Election - CLP Primary Vote



2012 Northern Territory Election - Labor Primary Vote



2012 Northern Territory Election - Greens Primary Vote



2012 Northern Territory Election - First Nations Political Party Primary Vote


As always, bigger versions in the Gallery.

[Novelty]

Thanks for the maps, Smid.

[Smid]

Thanks for the maps, Smid.

No worries, mate, glad you appreciate them!

[Hifly]

There is a by-election in Wanguri next Saturday due to the resignation of former Labor leader Paul Henderson. I wonder if the controversy surrounding Labor's senate candidate preselection will do them harm or if the Liberals have a chance of gaining the seat.