The Next Four Years
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  The Next Four Years
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Poll
Question: Who Should be Speaker of the House?
#1
Eric Cantor
 
#2
Kevin McCarthy
 
#3
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 8

Author Topic: The Next Four Years  (Read 11626 times)
NHI
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« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2012, 05:55:03 PM »
« edited: July 12, 2012, 05:57:26 PM by NHI »


CNN: Speaker Boehner makes a deal with Pres.
"A deal has been reached that Speaker John Boehner will bring before the House. It is quite a breakdown from the original Republican intent. It appear that the deal includes tax hikes, coupled with spending cuts in defense."

"Speaker Boehner needs to rebuke this idea at once, otherwise he destroys everything the Republican Party stands for and what it means to be a conservative." -- Rep. Michelle Bachman.  

Obama-Boehner Deal Killed by the House
"This is to be an expected defeat for the President, but an even bigger humiliation for Speaker Boehner."

CNN: House Calls on Boehner to resign as Speaker

CNN:Boehner to Resigns as Speaker, Cantor poised to become Speaker

Obama Approval Rating:
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 37%

"The current political environment has become too unstable and I feel that in order to be responsible to my speakership and to the party I will be stepping down as Speaker of the House and will continue to serve as a representative from Ohio's eighth district through the end of this legislative cycle..."
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2012, 07:05:21 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2012, 09:46:04 PM by Clinton1996 »

The non-Tea Partiers and Democrats aren't gonna allow Cantor Or McCarthy to become Speaker. They probably fear Newt Gingich 2.0. You should pick someone like Peter King or Mike Pence.
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NHI
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« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2012, 08:52:43 PM »

I've put up a poll to get your thoughts for the next Speaker of the House. Next update in a few days.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2012, 10:29:15 PM »

The non-Tea Partiers and Democrats aren't gonna allow Cantor Or McCarthy to become Speaker. They probably fear Newt Gingich 2.0. You should pick someone like Peter King or Mike Pence.
Pence will be Indiana's Governor. Smiley
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NHI
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« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2012, 09:18:10 PM »

"George, I tell you I am deeply troubled by what I see going on in Washington. The vitriolic language on both sides, the partisanship on both sides, the failure to communicate ideas and the breakdown of trust between representative and the people. We're in a big hole we're only digging it deeper."

"Are you still, or do you consider yourself a Republican?"

"Yes, still am and always will be, but I am an American first. I put the country before label and that the attitude that needs to change if America is to get back on her feet..."

Obama Approval Rating:
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 38%

CNN BREAKING NEWS: Chris Christie announces run for reelection in NJ

Cory Booker declares his bid to challenge Christie

Christie v. Booker: Matchup
Christie: 51%
Booker: 43%

CNN BREAKING NEWS: PETER KING ELECTED SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE

"Peter King will become the next Speaker of the House, beating out Eric Cantor who many believed would succeed Boehner."

"I think King is a wise selection. Cantor was too connected to Boehner and was considered to extreme by Democrats and by those moderate Republicans." -- Chris Christie

"We're going to get down to work. The American people deserve at least that from us. Now there are differences obviously with Democrats and Republicans, but we will work together and that's a promise."

"The cult of the personality with the Republican party is crumbling and we'll be receiving the benefits of this come November 2014. They just can't or I should say they are still not ready for primetime."

November 2013

Virginia Gubernatorial Results:
Bill Bolling: 51.0%

Terry McAuliffe: 47.8%

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: Too Close to Call
Chris Christie: 49.60%

Cory Booker: 49.51%

"There is great focus on the New Jersey race as Chris Christie is widely expected as a Presidential candidate in 2016 and if he is reelected then he will certainly have the needed momentum to run for the nomination."

"It's early, but 2016 speculation has already begun. Possible GOP contenders include Mike Huckabee, Christie as we've mentioned, Mike Pence of Indiana, Bobby Jindal, Kelly Ayotte, certainly Marco Rubio,  and possibly Rick Santorum, the runner-up to Mitt Romney in 2012."

"And for the Democrats the thought is Joe Biden may mount a bid to succeed President Obama, but there are other contenders with Andrew Cuomo, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick has made multiple trips to Iowa the last few months, as has Martin O'Malley. Of course the big question is whether or not Hillary Clinton will run. She has not commented on it recently. Now she does a memoir scheduled to come out the first of the year, so we'll see."

"And we do have a projection to make, Cory Booker, repeat Cory Booker has elected Governor of New Jersey. He narrowly defeats incumbent Governor Chris Christie."

New Jersey Gubernatorial Results:
Booker: 49.57%
Christie: 49.49%
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GLPman
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« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2012, 09:53:10 PM »

I have an idea where this is headed Wink keep it up.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #31 on: July 13, 2012, 11:21:34 PM »

I had a feeling Peter King would be the next speaker, I said it in the beginning. I had hoped Christie would beat Booker. Booker has kinda fallen out of grace with the party after his "Bain Comments". But great timeline. Keep it up!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #32 on: July 14, 2012, 10:24:13 AM »

Good update! Smiley Though to be honest, I don't think Booker would run against Christie, let alone beat him.
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NHI
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« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2012, 10:20:14 PM »

Politico: The Christie Defeat: What it Means for 2016?
"The stunning defeat of Chris Christie in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Election has every GOP powerbroker and big-wig talking. "Is the Governor's 2016 bid officially over?" The challenge presented for Christie, by the defeat to Booker is he now must combat a loser image and despite leaving office with a decent approval rating, and a booming New Jersey economy, defeats are difficult, not impossible, to overcome. The question many wonder is Christie's shinning star finally burnt out and will there be a new person to turn to in 2016, because Rick Santorum, despite rumblings of a sequel campaign is not the heir apparent."

GOP Nomination:
Rubio: 17%
Christie: 15%
Ryan: 15%
Jindal: 13%
McDonnell: 11%
Ayotte: 11%
Paul: 9%
Santorum:  6%
Other: 3%

Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 50%
Biden: 20%
Cuomo: 13%
Warren: 8%
Schweitzer: 6%
Other: 3%

My Own Voice
By: Hillary Rodham Clinton

"The release of Hillary Clinton's new memoir detailing her 2008 campaign for President and tenure as Secretary of State is prompting intense speculation that she'll run for President in 2016. She has largely dodged question, but in our sit down interview the former Secretary of State addressed the possibility of a 2016 campaign.


"I am aware that this question has been asked in some many ways, but with the release of your best selling book and a recent poll that indicated you are the Democrat's top preference to be the nominee in 2016, are you going to run for President?"

"Well, I am happy with the success of the book, and flattered by the polls that keep popping up there and to my supporters's efforts, but in terms of a future campaign I do not anticipate to be running for President."

"Vice President Biden has indicated he will likely run for the nomination in 2016, do you think he can not only win the nomination and beat the Republican challenger?"

"Look I don't play politics, if the Vice President wants to run he should, and I'll leave the politicking to the media."

"Not to sound redundant Madame Secretary, but will you run for President? A definitive yes or no answer?"

"Well, I never deal in absolutes, because I never anticipated on becoming Secretary of State, I never anticipated on becoming a Senator from New York, but we have a great party, a party with up and coming leaders, so I don't know if we need to keep relying on us Clinton be the standard bearer. Now to answer your question, I am saying no right now, because I don't think about the future. I am concentrated on the now, but I do not foresee any future campaign in my horizon."

Headline: Clinton Rules out* running for President

Obama Approval Rating:
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 40%

CNN: Talk of a Government Shutdown Looms Again
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #34 on: July 16, 2012, 11:51:22 PM »

Interesting, though Christie's defeat makes me a sad panda
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NHI
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« Reply #35 on: July 17, 2012, 05:57:29 AM »

Interesting, though Christie's defeat makes me a sad panda
It was difficult for me to write also, but for story purposes it works.
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NHI
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« Reply #36 on: July 17, 2012, 06:26:32 AM »

CNN: Government Shut-Down Averted, Tea Party Wings Snaps

"The Republican leadership saddens me greatly. We were sent here to work, and I cannot illustrate my extreme disappointment in the House and the Senate. We need to balance the budget, and cut federal spending, not by a inch, but by a mile."

"This is what separates the men from the boys in this situation. America is at a crossroad. We have an out of control, America bashing President, and a Congress filled with Democrats and Republicans that are no different. I think it's time the Tea Party takes a real stand. A stand to change America!"

"I don't think we need a third party, despite the charges of some. I think the Republican party needs a cleansing. We have to establish or reestablish who we are what we stand for. We went with a moderate in 2012, in 2016 we need to go with a conservative and an unapologetic one. You either stand with us or you're a Democrat."

"The talk coming from people like Rick Santorum, and others is what's wrong with America. We may need a third party after all, but not an ideological one. One that is driven on common sense, and encompassing to all."

2014 Midterms:

Democrats Back on Top

The Democrats return to power in the House, while keeping the Senate as well. Nancy Pelosi returns to Speaker, citing she will not be running for reelection in 2016.

Senate:
Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48
Independents: 2

House:
Democrats: 225
Republicans: 210

The Democrats Return

Major Legislation Passed in early 2015:
The American Job Recovery (Dubbed by Republicans: Stimulus II)
The American Dream Act (Dubbed by Republicans: Amnesty for illegals)
The Fair Taxation Act (A.K.A. The Buffett Rule)

Unemployment Rate: March 2015
7.4%

New York Times: First Signs of 2016

Jeb Bush Considering a Run, will announce in June.

"I will not be running for President in 2016, but will be endorsing a candidate, once the field is established."

Rubio's Out, Santorum's In

Huntsman Joins in, Aims for NH
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NHI
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« Reply #37 on: July 17, 2012, 06:35:30 AM »

"America needs a champion for the middle class. President Obama has paved the way for progress an I intend to carry it on!"

Schweitzer, O'Malley Jump into the Race,

VEEP ENTRANCE
"I'm running for President of the United States!"

Democratic Contenders:
Biden: 24%
Warren: 19%
O'Malley: 15%
Schweitzer: 11%
Other: 31%
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NHI
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« Reply #38 on: July 17, 2012, 09:24:32 AM »

Enter The Big Guns

"Andrew Cuomo's entrance into the race, certainly shakes up the dynamics."

"The way I see it, this race for the Democrats is Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, with Joe Biden barley coming in third. I will be surprised if makes it to Iowa."

"Biden is the establishment vote, and barley. He represents the Administration. Now Democrats, save for Elizabeth Warren are distancing themselves from the Obama Presidency. Cuomo represents a center left, Clinton type approach. I suspect, unless Hillary Clinton makes a rash decision to enter the race, the nomination goes to Cuomo."

"On the Republicans it's difficult to say. Christie was the early favorite, but his fall in 2013 hurts him going into the race if he enters."

"Right now you've got Santorum who's going nowhere. Rand Paul who recently announced, Jon Huntsman and maybe Jeb Bush who are appealing to the independents, disaffected Democrats and moderate Republicans."

Bobby Jindal for President:
"It is time for America to begin anew. To return to the principles of limited government, personal and fiscal responsibility...so I ask you to join with me in a fight to save America!"

Rick Perry endorses Bobby Jindal. "He has the chops to get America workin' again."

Ryan unveils The Blue Print for America, calls Obama and the Democrats "Disastrous"
"I've crafted a plan that I'm going to take around this country, educating the public and presenting my vision for America. It is one of unbounded prosperity, never before seen on this Earth."

Walker Endorses Ryan, calling him "The President America Deserves"

"I will not be running for President and will be endorsing Governor Jon Huntsman for President, on the basis of his campaign premise: Country First. That is the type of leadership America needs and frankly deserves."

Ayotte forges Reelection, Announces Campaign for President
"I bring a new and much needed perspective to the race and will to the White House if elected."

Enter Thune


Republican Nomination:
Jindal: 21%
Ryan: 20%
Ayotte: 15%
Thune: 12%
Huntsman: 11%
Paul: 7%
Santorum: 5%

Christie & Pawlenty still eye possible 2016 campaign

Clinton bows out, sighting family time and age. "It's time for new blood."
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #39 on: July 17, 2012, 01:48:08 PM »

Cuomo or O'Malley 2012. I doubt we'll allow Warren to get anywhere near the nomination. And Biden is too old.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #40 on: July 17, 2012, 06:58:28 PM »

Rooting for Biden Smiley But I'd be glad with Warren, O'Malley and Schweitzer as nominees, too.
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NHI
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« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2012, 09:05:26 PM »

Tough Talk
"I'm going to win this nomination! Join with me America! Join with me! Fight! Fight for what we've done! Fight for tomorrow. The America of Tomorrow!"

"The first cycle of fundraising numbers are in and this race has changed dramatically. Andrew Cuomo as expected is leading in the fundraising campaign, taking in $21.2 million last month. Governor O'Malley took in an impressive $17.4 million."

"The Vice President is the surprise one. He really stumbled and took in only $15.0 million. Despite the power of the office he is lagging behind."

"The Party is moving past him."

"Elizabeth Warren surprised me in terms of fundraising. She raised only $9.7 million."

"But add that to her war chest from 2012, and it's around $30 million."

"I think the one to watch is Brian Schweitzer, especially in Iowa."

"Can we expect a late entrance by Tim Kaine, or Mark Warner?"

"I'd doubt it. The only candidate who may enter is Deval Patrick, who has signaled he may enter the race."

"Yes, President Obama has been a failure as a President, but we're not running against him. We're running against a crop of candidates who want to continue the policies of him. The Vice President and Elizabeth Warren proudly say they're Obama Followers. Well I don't want followers leading this country. I want a President who actually knows how and can lead."

Patrick Endorses Warren, calling her a "Champion for the middle class."

Clinton Backs Cuomo.
"He's the forward thinking type of person we need in the White House again. I'm proud to call him a friend. I'm proud to call him my Governor, and I'm proud to call him the next President of The United States."

Democratic Nomination:
Cuomo: 29%
Biden: 20%
Warren: 16%
O'Malley: 16%
Schweitzer: 11%

"Cuomo is running away with the nomination."

"Biden's history. He'll be lucky to make it to Iowa."

Iowa Straw Poll: Paul Wins Straw Poll. Jindal and Ryan Tie for 2nd.

Paul: 29.9%
Jindal: 28.6%
Ryan: 28.6%
Thune: 5.8%
Ayotte: 3.0%
Santorum: 2.2%
Huntsman: 0.9%
Other: 1%

"Once again The Straw Poll proves it's irrelevance."

"Results?"

"Ryan, and Jindal are the top tier candidates and will be the two battling out for the nomination."

CNN BREAKING NEWS: Santorum Leaves the Race

"We're going forward. America is in need of help and Iowa proved we're up to the task."

Iowa Poll: Republicans August 2015
Jindal: 24%
Ryan: 24%
Thune: 19%
Paul: 18%
Ayotte: 10%
Huntsman: 2%

Democrats:
Cuomo: 27%
O'Malley: 25%
Biden: 19%
Schweitzer: 15%
Warren: 9%

New Hampshire: Republicans
Huntsman: 21%
Ayotte: 21%
Ryan: 17%
Paul: 15%
Jindal: 15%
Thune: 7%

Democrats:
Cuomo: 39%
O'Malley: 24%
Biden: 15%
Warren: 12%
Schweitzer: 7%

"Very shocked with the New Hampshire poll with Ayotte. She is the incumbent senator and is tied with Jon Huntsman with one 21% of the vote."

"Whoever wins the Iowa caucuses in my view will be the Republican nominee. New Hampshire is going to be moot this year."

"I don't care about the pundits or the polls. New Hampshire decides election and America we're going to win this nomination and win this election!"
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2012, 09:35:47 PM »

I have a feeling Biden is gonna pull an upset. You're setting it up to be Cuomo as the Hillary Clinton front runner, but Biden or Schweitzer will pull an upset in Iowa. Democrats don't usually go for the next in line guy if there's an actuall field of candidates (2000 was an anomally). We skipped over Clinton in 08 and Lieberman in 04.
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NHI
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« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2012, 09:40:56 PM »

Iowa Results: 2016

Turnout Larger Than Expected on Both Sides, Cuomo favored on Dem., Jindal close with Paul.

Results: Democrats
Cuomo: 27.3%
O'Malley: 24.0%
Schweitzer: 23.9%
Biden: 17.1%
Warren: 5.7%

"We can now project that Elizabeth Warren will finish fifth, and Vice President Biden will finish in fourth."

"We should note that Joe Biden is not even in Iowa tonight, but campaigning in New Hampshire."

"Does the President's endorsement help him?"

"Difficult to say. I think if he had come out strong and early, then yes, but now it's desperation."

Results: Republicans
Jindal: 28.5%
Paul: 25.7%
Thune: 22.9%
Ryan: 14.8%
Ayotte: 5.6%
Huntsman: 1.0%

"A close race between Paul and Jindal."

"The Paul Legion of supporters are enthused tonight and will be demanding Paul's acceptance."

"Ryan is the one who shocks me tonight. He's far behind in fourth, with Thune coming on strong."

"For the record Sen. Ayotte and Gov. Huntsman will finish fourth and fifth respectively, and Paul Ryan will finish third."

CNN BREAKING NEWS: O'MALLEY PASSES CUOMO, RACE TOO CLOSE

Top Tier:
O'Malley: 26.7%
Cuomo: 26.0%
Schweitzer: 25.5%

Ryan Doubles Down, Presses onto NH

Top Tier:
Jindal: 26.7%
Thune: 26.1%
Paul: 23.3%

"Paul has slipped to third, with Thune moving up to second place."

"This going to be a long night."

"2012, all over again"
CNN BREAKING NEWS: O'MALLEY WINS IOWA CAUCUSES

O'Malley: 27.0%
Cuomo: 25.8%
Schweitzer: 25.7%
Biden: 15.3%
Warren: 4.2%
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NHI
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« Reply #44 on: July 18, 2012, 08:59:34 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2012, 04:25:03 PM by NHI »

John Thune Wins Iowa Caucuses
Thune: 26.8%
Jindal: 26.5%
Paul: 23.3%
Ryan: 15.0%
Ayotte: 5.5%
Huntsman: 1.0%

"Status of the race going forward?" -- John King

"On the Republican side Thune has the momentum, but it's Ayotte's state. So we'll wait and see." -- Alex Castellanos

"Jindal didn't lose badly, so he can recover, but Paul Ryan needs a game changer, otherwise he's done." -- James Carville

"For the Democrats, O'Malley has the momentum from Iowa and Cuomo is starting to look like Hillary from 2008." -- John  Avalon

"Is Biden done?" -- John King

"He's focused on NH, so he needs a good showing in the state, otherwise he's done."-- James Carville

CNN TALKING HEADS:

"I need your help New Hampshire! I'm the underdog in this race. Have been my whole life, and this race is no exception. So I ask for you to stand with me."

New Hampshire Poll: Democrats
O'Malley: 29%
Cuomo: 23%
Biden: 21%
Schweitzer: 17%
Warren: 8%

"I'd like Mr. Thune to explain his vote for the 2008  Bank Bailout. Is a Conservative, or a rank and file Republican?"

"John Thune has tucked away hundreds of millions in earmarks. He's got some explaining to do. He's Mr. Politics First and Mr. Senator Second."

New Hampshire: Republicans
Ayotte: 27%
Huntsman: 23%
Thune: 16%
Paul: 14%
Ryan: 12%
Jindal: 6%

"Let's get America working and let's start the campaign right here in NH

"Paul Ryan is fighting for his political life in NH, and Bobby Jindal has written off the state to focus on South Carolina." -- John King

"The trouble is Ryan can easily be targeted if he's the nominee for his proposed plan. John Thune has a voting record that is difficult to explain." --- Alex Castellanos

"Thune is the John Kerry of 2016, if he's nominated. The only hope for him is that he's a fresh face and the American people generally don't let one party dominate the White House for more than eight years." -- James Carville

"If Biden wins the nomination, which I still say is doubtful it's going to be O'Malley. Cuomo got dealt a devastating blow in Iowa, even though it was a narrow loss, he was the one who proclaimed Iowa would be the deciding factor. He jumped the gun." -- John Avalon

"Is Huntsman's a factor?" -- John King

"He might win New Hampshire and if he does he'll spin it as giving him the momentum, but I don't see how he wins the nomination when he's at odds with the likes of Hannity and Limbaugh." -- John Avalon

"Then's there's Paul." -- John King

"Like his father Rand Paul is a fringe candidate and will be gone soon."
-- Donna Brazile

"He was arguably the most conservative governor, from the most conservative state, and yet he is given no respect. He's can unite the country."

"People keep spinning The Huntsman candidate and if he wins New Hampshire he's all setup for victory. Some of the party elites like this guy, but look we went with the mormon in 2012 and look how it turned out."

"New Hampshire has a knack for picking President and I'm asking you to send me to the White House!"
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #45 on: July 18, 2012, 10:54:26 AM »

My only suggestion - state before each quote who's making a statement. It would make it easier to read.

Other than that, very realistic. I'm going to nitpick, though, as you know I'm not doing this out of hate, as I love your timelines. Wink Tongue Why would Ayotte drop out after Iowa, considering she's focusing everything on New Hampshire? It just doesn't make sense to me.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #46 on: July 18, 2012, 11:18:36 AM »

nitpick:

Dems retake the house?!  The f---k?!!!!
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NHI
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« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2012, 04:16:25 PM »

My only suggestion - state before each quote who's making a statement. It would make it easier to read.

Other than that, very realistic. I'm going to nitpick, though, as you know I'm not doing this out of hate, as I love your timelines. Wink Tongue Why would Ayotte drop out after Iowa, considering she's focusing everything on New Hampshire? It just doesn't make sense to me.

You know originally I wanted to have her out fearing a defeat in NH, but I've amended the timeline. Ayotte remains.
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NHI
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« Reply #48 on: July 18, 2012, 04:40:58 PM »

NH Primary: Republicans

"The polls were right in the predicted winner, but wrong on the amount. Kelly Ayotte will win the New Hampshire Primary tonight, by a wide margin." -- John King


Ayotte: 48.9%
Huntsman: 14.2%
Thune: 12.0%
Paul: 9.9%
Ryan: 8.4%
Jindal: 5.6%

"Huntsman's number are really crushing, he'll be done after tonight. Bobby Jindal wrote off the state so he'll live to fight another day. Rand Paul was never going anywhere. Ryan has a lot of thinking to do, and John Thune will make it to South Carolina, but he's lost the momentum from Iowa." -- Alex Castellanos

"What of Kelly Ayotte?" -- John King.

"Yes, it's her home state, but I think this win helps cement her as the establishment favorite. Unless Thune or Ryan makes a turn around this is a Jindal and Ayotte race."

"We are getting word that tonight Jon Huntsman will end his campaign, but will not be making an endorsement...now back to the state of the race. Does being Romney's Vice Presidential choice in 2012 hurt her? " -- John King.

"It does with the Tea Party wing, but I think we've seen the focus and strength of that movement fade and die out. With Thune's win in Iowa I think we are seeing the end of the Tea Party's strength." --- John Avalon


"In the Democratic Race, it is still too close to be called. It is a close fight between O'Malley and Biden, who has made a surprising comeback." -- John King.

"He is the Vice President, so there is weight after that. If he does win New Hampshire, he will have the momentum going forward and may, may win the nomination." -- Donna Brazile
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #49 on: July 18, 2012, 09:23:27 PM »

Very nice update! Smiley Thank you for taking my suggestions.
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