Hispanics: California’s Next Majority

[greenforest32]

"How the state’s demographics have changed since 1980."

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/02/20/us/hispanics-californias-next-majority.html

I can't embed the pictures but the 1980-2020 interactive county maps in the article are pretty interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The related article is also very instructive about the lessons the GOP had better learn from California's evolution.

[memphis]

The related article is also very instructive about the lessons the GOP had better learn from California's evolution.

Not a good comparison. Whites in CA are far more Dem than nationwide. And it's unlikely our Hispanic population will soon be as high as was once forecast. They've stopped coming and the ones here are having fewer babies. No jobs.

[Benj]

Personally, I think they're overstating future Hispanic population growth. Immigration from Mexico and Central America has basically stopped, and birth rates are not dramatically higher among Hispanics, especially second- or third-generation. The Asian population in California is likely to experience more growth between now and 2020 than the Hispanic population. California may even still be non-Hispanic white plurality in 2020, and it definitely won't have a single majority population group any time soon.

[Sbane]

Personally, I think they're overstating future Hispanic population growth. Immigration from Mexico and Central America has basically stopped, and birth rates are not dramatically higher among Hispanics, especially second- or third-generation. The Asian population in California is likely to experience more growth between now and 2020 than the Hispanic population. California may even still be non-Hispanic white plurality in 2020, and it definitely won't have a single majority population group any time soon.

Another thing to consider might be that as California's economy becomes even more concentrated with "knowledge industries", a lot of the people leaving the state will be Hispanics. They could be following in the steps of the lower middle class whites who went before them, and whose neighborhoods they live in today.

[freepcrusher]

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Another thing to consider might be that as California's economy becomes even more concentrated with "knowledge industries", a lot of the people leaving the state will be Hispanics. They could be following in the steps of the lower middle class whites who went before them, and whose neighborhoods they live in today.

but the question then remains - who will live in areas like Montebello and PR? I doubt the Asians would want to live there. But at the same time I can't see those types of places becoming a ghost town.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The Hispanic percentage of the population will peak, and at some point "Hispanic" will become archaic; white Hispanics like myself will be considered white, black Hispanics black, etc. and "browns" will probably have "Mestizo" on the Census.

[Sbane]

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Another thing to consider might be that as California's economy becomes even more concentrated with "knowledge industries", a lot of the people leaving the state will be Hispanics. They could be following in the steps of the lower middle class whites who went before them, and whose neighborhoods they live in today.

Replaced by immigration from Mexico and Central America. I just don't see the Hispanic population growing as fast.

but the question then remains - who will live in areas like Montebello and PR? I doubt the Asians would want to live there. But at the same time I can't see those types of places becoming a ghost town.

[angus]

Hispanics: California’s Next Majority

Similar claims are made of Texas as well, and the Hispanic population there is expected to outnumber the non-Hispanic White population by 2020.  Eventually, other states are expected to follow.  I'm not sure whether that will actually happen by 2020, or how this will all play out, but the "related article" that is linked at the bottom is interesting.  Certainly this trend affects our politics.  What is talked about less than how Hispanic affect anglo-American culture is how anglo-American culture affects the Hispanic population.  I'd assume that the descendants will assimilate, learn English, intermarry, go to universities, adopt socioeconomic attitudes befitting their income levels and evolve positions on immigration that assimilated communities have always done, one by one, after achieving affluence and influence. 

[opebo]

I'd assume that the descendants will assimilate, learn English, intermarry, go to universities, adopt socioeconomic attitudes befitting their income levels and evolve positions on immigration that assimilated communities have always done, one by one, after achieving affluence and influence. 

If you think currently working-class people are going to 'achieve affluence' to any significant degree you seem to be lacking in understanding of the modern political-economic system.

[The Free North]

Personally, I think they're overstating future Hispanic population growth. Immigration from Mexico and Central America has basically stopped, and birth rates are not dramatically higher among Hispanics, especially second- or third-generation. The Asian population in California is likely to experience more growth between now and 2020 than the Hispanic population. California may even still be non-Hispanic white plurality in 2020, and it definitely won't have a single majority population group any time soon.

Agreed. I read an article by the Pew hispanic research center that stated hispanic birthrates have dropped to record lows. I think the number was 2.1 if i'm remembering correctly, which is right at replacement level.

Whites, blacks, and asians were all below replacement. Immigration has also slowed significantly too, so I think many predictions for 2050 with a population breakdown with hispanics at 30%+ may be a bit aggressive. That being said, I do expect hispanics to be a majority in CA (they are all ready), NM, maybe TX (lots of whites going there too) maybe AZ, and thats about it. FL and CO are a bit of a wildcard though.

[The Free North]

Heres the Pew article BTW

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/11/29/u-s-birth-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-decline-is-greatest-among-immigrants/