CA: Field Research Corporation: Obama+18 among LV

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California President by Field Research Corporation on 2012-07-02

Summary: D: 55%, R: 37%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Favorables:

58-39 Obama
36-55 Romney

55-39 Obama Job Approval

Is your vote preference more a vote for your candidate vs. a vote against his opponent (among likely voters) ?

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

[Ljube]

Good results for Romney. He might even break 40 in the end.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

Ouch.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

Ouch.

Why ouch?

Obama's the incumbent.  It's only natural that most voters will be basing their vote for or against him.

[rob in cal]

Obama is only winning 88-2% among Blacks, and I'd guess after undecideds mostly break toward him, thats about 97 or 98%, so I'm thinking there's still room to grow, to say, 99.5% support, which would be a solid shoring  up of the base.

[Miles]

Sounds about right. Romney's losing margin is on track to be 4 or 5 points better than McCain's.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

Ouch.

Why ouch?

Obama's the incumbent.  It's only natural that most voters will be basing their vote for or against him.

Yet there's the fact that more Obama voters are for him than are Romney's voters for him.  I'm not quite sure how that can be considered very positive for Romney.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

Ouch.

Why ouch?

Obama's the incumbent.  It's only natural that most voters will be basing their vote for or against him.

Yet there's the fact that more Obama voters are for him than are Romney's voters for him.  I'm not quite sure how that can be considered very positive for Romney.

No reason to think its a negative tho.  It's not as if Romney has campaigned in California so as to give people a chance to base their vote on him.  Anyone have some comparable numbers from July 2004 to see how many of Kerry's supporters were planning on voting for him or against the incumbent Bush?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Obama voters: 79% for candidate, 20% against opponent
Romney voters: 36% for candidate, 60% against opponent

Ouch.

Why ouch?

Obama's the incumbent.  It's only natural that most voters will be basing their vote for or against him.

Yet there's the fact that more Obama voters are for him than are Romney's voters for him.  I'm not quite sure how that can be considered very positive for Romney.

No reason to think its a negative tho.  It's not as if Romney has campaigned in California so as to give people a chance to base their vote on him.  Anyone have some comparable numbers from July 2004 to see how many of Kerry's supporters were planning on voting for him or against the incumbent Bush?

Well, it's certainly hard to run a very good campaign when almost 2/3 of your base only support you because they don't like the other guy.  Granted, it is California, but I would be very worried if this trend were to be found in other states, as well.

And actually, I did find a poll like that from 2004.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kerry supporters were fairly split in their enthusiasm, but Bush clearly had the edge with this.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I note that poll you found was from mid-August 2004 after the DNC had been held and it was a a national poll, which meant more of the respondents would have been exposed to campaigning about Kerry than Californians would have about Romney.  While that probably doesn't explain the full difference, it is a factor.

However, this also suggests that Romney's current level of support is probably a floor.  After all, the people who plan to vote for him because of their opinion of Obama are unlikely to switch to Obama as they learn more about Romney.

[Sasquatch]

I think if Romney is able to crack 40% in California that would be considered a "win."

[mondale84]

I think if Romney is able to crack 40% in California that would be considered a "win."

I think he'll get to 40, but he won't get any higher not even to 41.

[DrScholl]

This is Romney's ceiling, most polls have him stuck in the 30s and I don't see him doing more than a point better than McCain.

[Vosem]

This is Romney's ceiling, most polls have him stuck in the 30s and I don't see him doing more than a point better than McCain.

Try and use your other senses

[DrScholl]

Try and use your other senses

Check previous polls for California, most of them have Romney at the same number or close to it. I feel the same way about the Alabama poll that was posted a couple of days ago, it shows Obama's floor, but he won't go above that and the margin itself will obviously end up being wider.

[Sbane]

Obama winning by 18-20 points sounds about right to me. Romney will likely crack 40 % of the two party vote but not likely after accounting for third parties.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Seems about right. I'd give Romney 41-42% of the vote here.

[old timey villain]

Not surprising that even the Romney voters arent even voting for Romney. Didn't he say that America was heading on the path of California ? Better sell the la jolla beach house, Willard.

[Tender Branson]

With 3rd party candidates, I think the final outcome for CA this year will be about 59-38 for Obama. Or 58-39.