PPP: Obama matching 2008 performance in VA, NC

[Miles]

VIRGINIA

With Goode:

Obama- 49%
Romney- 35%
Goode- 9%

Without Goode:

Obama- 50%
Romney- 42%

Obama/Biden- 50%
Romney/McDonnell- 43%

Obama/Biden- 50%
Romney/Cantor- 38%

NORTH CAROLINA

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

The result is exactly the same with Burr.

Full Report.

Voters in both states are closely divided on the SCOTUS healthcare ruling; Virginians narrowly agree with it (45/44) while North Carolinians are exactly split (44/44).

Voters in both states narrowly oppose Obama's immigration announcement a few weeks ago; VA voters are less opposed to it (39/43) than those in NC (40/46).

[Supersonic]

PPP is a joke, even Nate Silver said their polls before September or so are crap.

[Niemeyerite]

PPP is a joke, even Nate Silver said their polls before September or so are crap.

And I tought you were a sane conservaTORIE. PPP polls was the best pollster in 2010, they were one of the best in 2008, and this poll doesn't seem to be an outlier.

[tmthforu94]

Miles, you put Public Strategies instead of PPP.

I think its inconsistant that some include third party names and some polls added don't. Regardless, there is no way Obama is up double-digits in Virginia. This would be like saying Romney is up 7-8 points in Iowa.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Who are the 1% of Obama supporters that would vote for Goode?

[Miles]

Miles, you put Public Strategies instead of PPP.

I think its inconsistant that some include third party names and some polls added don't. Regardless, there is no way Obama is up double-digits in Virginia. This would be like saying Romney is up 7-8 points in Iowa.

Thanks for catching that. Fixed.

Ok, I'll use the 50-42 result instead.

[ajc0918]

On twitter PPP said about their VA poll: "Our sample is less Democratic this time, and less Democratic than 2008, and Obama still doing very well".

Regardless, Obama is doing well in Virginia. Hopefully Goode can steal some Romney votes.

[Miles]

Looks like PPP undersampled Independents for the NC poll.

Their sample was 46D 34R 21I.

2008 was 42D 31R 27I.

[pbrower2a]

I'm beginning to wonder how Virgil Goode would do in the Mountain South -- KY, WV, TN, AR and parts of GA and MO.  It wouldn't take much on his part to make a lot of Republicans start watching hockey, basketball, or old movies on the night of Election Day.

[tmthforu94]

Looks like PPP undersampled Independents for the NC poll.

Their sample was 46D 34R 21I.

2008 was 42D 31R 27I.

If that was the sampling used, I feel much better about these results.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While I really doubt that Goode will approach double digits in the actual voting anywhere, he does have a decent shot at pulling votes away from Romney, especially in states where either Romney or Obama has a healthy lead.  Goode is running heavily on an anti-immigration platform.  Conversely, if you take a good look at Romney's immigration policy, the xenophobes are not going to be happy as he is calling for increased legal immigration.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Who are the 1% of Obama supporters that would vote for Goode?

Probably people who hate Mormons more than Muslims.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Obama is leading with 268 electoral votes depending on what happens in NH, OH and VA he can get to 272 to 285 but winning NC too is asking to much.

[old timey villain]

Someone tell me again how this election is like 2004, when the polls look like 2008?

[Kevin]

Yeah I have a hard time believing this. Esp. since I live in VA, and know the situation on the ground well here.

[Vern]

Yeah I have a hard time believing this. Esp. since I live in VA, and know the situation on the ground well here.

I'm not saying this poll is true or not, but you can't judge how your state will vote by what you see on the ground.

[Miles]

Yeah I have a hard time believing this. Esp. since I live in VA, and know the situation on the ground well here.

I'm not saying this poll is true or not, but you can't judge how your state will vote by what you see on the ground.

I tend to agree with this. I'm in a swing state now (NC) but I'm in one of the most consistently Republican areas of it (suburban Charlotte). So, I'm on the ground, but what I see isn't necessarily a great representation of the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Someone tell me again how this election is like 2004, when the polls look like 2008?

Because Santorum exposed the soft underbelly of Romney. He should of wrapped up the nomination by the State of the Union, instead he had to wait  until St. Patrick's Day. What should of been a Prez Romney victory in 2012 may wind up being an Obama victory with electoral votes to spare not 2004. If Romney doesn't hold Obama to 268 and win NH which Obama has lead in polls thus far, the election is over.

[Return of the Mack]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

[Minnesota Mike]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

[Miles]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

For one thing Romney is pretty unpopular in VA; the contrast is easy to see when his favorables are juxtaposed to Obama's approval numbers:

VA
Obama- 49/47
Romney- 38/51

In NC, I do think this poll is favorable to Obama though; he's only marginally more well-liked than Romney.

[Return of the Mack]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?

Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.

[Miles]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?

Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.

Obama wasn't on the ballot there in 2010.

Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico, among others, weren't very kind to his party either in 2010 and the President is still polling quite well in those states.

Also, welcome to the forum, TexasMack!

[argentarius]

I don't doubt that Obama is ahead in Virginia and that it has trended democratic over the last 4 years, but I don't buy the NC poll one bit.

[old timey villain]

Yeah I have a hard time believing this. Esp. since I live in VA, and know the situation on the ground well here.

Virginia has 8 million people. How can you accurately gauge the political mood of the state when you haven't talked to all 8 million people? Or even just all voters?

I mean, I live in Athens, GA. If I tried to gauge the entire state of Georgia based on what I see and hear in Athens, I'd be telling everyone that Obama was about to win Georgia in a landslide.