PPP: Obama leads in Wisconsin

[tmthforu94]

Obama - 50
Romney - 44

Obama/Biden - 47
Romney/Ryan - 46

Per Twitter. Ryan is about the only potential VP who makes a significant impact on polling in his state.

[Miles]

I'm sure RogueBeaver is happy about this!

I do think, to PPP's credit, that Obama's margin in VA is on track to be greater than his margin in WI.

Here's the full report.

This result is very close to the recall exit polls. They approve of Walker's job performance by 51/46 (close to his 53/46 victory margin) but Obama is still up single-digits (he was up 51-43 in the exit polls).

[pbrower2a]

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The link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_071112_Pres.pdf

[krazen1211]

Great news for Mr. Romney and Congressmen Ryan. Surely they must know that PPP polled Barrett +3 4 months before that election!

[Miles]

Great news for Mr. Romney and Congressmen Ryan. Surely they must know that PPP polled Barrett +3 4 months before that election!

Surely, they should also know that PPP consistently overestimated Walker and Johnson's margins in the months leading to the 2010 election.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And this poll badly undersampled Obama's supporters. Respondents to this poll were evenly split between Obama and McCain in 2008. Obama actually won the state by 14%.

[Vosem]

And this poll badly undersampled Obama's supporters. Respondents to this poll were evenly split between Obama and McCain in 2008. Obama actually won the state by 14%.

Well, turnout in 2012 will be rather different. And there's people out there who don't want to admit to voting Obama -- I don't like anecdotal evidence, but I know such people myself, and they're out there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And this poll badly undersampled Obama's supporters. Respondents to this poll were evenly split between Obama and McCain in 2008. Obama actually won the state by 14%.

Well, turnout in 2012 will be rather different. And there's people out there who don't want to admit to voting Obama -- I don't like anecdotal evidence, but I know such people myself, and they're out there.

"Cleopatra...The monarch of denial..."

[Minnesota Mike]

And this poll badly undersampled Obama's supporters. Respondents to this poll were evenly split between Obama and McCain in 2008. Obama actually won the state by 14%.

Well, turnout in 2012 will be rather different. And there's people out there who don't want to admit to voting Obama -- I don't like anecdotal evidence, but I know such people myself, and they're out there.

Wisconsin is a high turnout state (2nd in the nation in 2008, 71% of the voting age population), if nearly everyone votes it does not make sense that the composition of the electorate would change that much.

[minionofmidas]

By 14 points is certainly a bad sample. If these are actual raw figures. Not that I would argue for being transfixed by partisan id figures in polls anyways.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If you adjust it for the sample, he's really winning by 20.

[Minnesota Mike]

Trying to find a link but according to a poster on another board a new Marquette University poll in Wisconsin shows  Obama up 51-43.

[Tender Branson]

Those chances only exist if he picks Ryan as VP.

Otherwise Obama by 5-10 points.

[NVGonzalez]

Ryan actually closes the gap in WI? Seems logical for Romney to pick Ryan now but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA