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  2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)
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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 16884 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #25 on: July 27, 2012, 12:58:03 pm »

Note that if McCain won an ED with a few thousand votes in Brooklyn he lost Jews in most parts of Manhattan by a landslide. You have to count Jews who vote against your candidate and aren't part of your community, too, rather than just look at the few neighborhoods you know best and say "he did pretty well here, so I bet I can assume he won across the city."
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NY Jew
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« Reply #26 on: July 27, 2012, 01:40:13 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 02:46:26 pm by NY Jew »

Note that if McCain won an ED with a few thousand votes in Brooklyn he lost Jews in most parts of Manhattan by a landslide. You have to count Jews who vote against your candidate and aren't part of your community, too, rather than just look at the few neighborhoods you know best and say "he did pretty well here, so I bet I can assume he won across the city."
just for the record Orthodox Jews + Russian Jews are over half NYC's Jewish population.

even in Manhattan McCain did much better amongst Jews then he did amongst California Jews.

some of McCains best areas in Manhattan were only because of the Jewish vote and clearly show he won the Jewish vote big in those areas.

there is no doubt that McCain won the Jewish votes in both the LES and WH.  he probably pulled at least 30% of the Jewish vote on the UWS and UES.  On the UWS I would guess at least 60% of McCains vote came from Jews.


now add to this McCain won the Jewish votes in Riverdale, Williamsburg, Borough Park, Flatbush, Bensehurst, Crown Heights, Jamacia Estates, Kew Garden Hills, Far Rockway ext.

and it's clear from this that the Jewish vote was a lot closer then you think.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #27 on: July 27, 2012, 02:59:27 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 03:08:13 pm by NY Jew »

my low estimate of the Jewish vote

a few more neighborhoods

on the the Rockway Peninsula (FR, Bayswater, and Belle Harbor)
2,500-250

Lower East Side (very possibly need to add a few hundred more votes for McCain and/or take away some from Obama)
1,000-300

Williamsburg (very possible that a decent number of that Obama numbers are really Hispanic this area has one of the worst voter turnouts in the city)

5,200-1,040
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NY Jew
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« Reply #28 on: July 27, 2012, 03:01:43 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
just to clarify
those numbers were my estimate of only the jewish vote.

the problem is that different communities have very different voting habits (turn out is going to be very different in different Orthodox communities)
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #29 on: July 27, 2012, 03:07:03 pm »

Who cares? Just, who freakin' cares? You're looking way too into this thing. You can believe whatever you want, but the fact of the matter is that a majority of Jews have voted Democrat for decades. I don't care if you think Jews like me aren't Jews because we aren't that religious.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #30 on: July 27, 2012, 03:11:57 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 03:30:34 pm by NY Jew »

Who cares? Just, who freakin' cares? You're looking way too into this thing. You can believe whatever you want, but the fact of the matter is that a majority of Jews have voted Democrat for decades. I don't care if you think Jews like me aren't Jews because we aren't that religious.
do you know how to read because all I said was the polls didn't count the types of the population that demographically speaking are not like you at all.

you do know that Jews who demographically speaking voted for McCain most likley live in Jewish enclaves and the Jews that voted for Obama most likely live areas that are mixed.

now look up the term clustering. and you'll see why the exit polls were worthless.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #31 on: July 27, 2012, 03:15:14 pm »

just for the record so far I have this as the undercounted Jewish vote
14,157-2,089
and in NYC 11,400-1,890
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ajc0918
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« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2012, 05:27:52 pm »

Somewhat relevant to this thread:

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/156338/Americans-Positive-Negative-Toward-Netanyahu.aspx
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Alcon
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« Reply #33 on: July 27, 2012, 09:59:49 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #34 on: July 28, 2012, 10:44:02 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
understand the fact that the turnout rates between different Orthodox communities drastically differ from one another and need to be worked out differently.

I repeat there is a drastic difference between different Orthodox communities in many ways and each needs to be calculated individually. 

for example here are the breakdowns you want for the most McCain ED in different Jewish neighborhoods in NYC and you'll see why this can't be averaged out.

McCains best ed in Far Rockway 524 votes for McCain, 43 for Obama
18+ breakdown
758 whites
13 blacks
9 hispanics
2 asians
1 other
McCains best ed in Borough Park 322 votes for McCain, 8 for Obama
673 whites
8 hispanics
McCains best ed in Flatbush (Midwood-Gravesend) 364 votes for McCain, 37 for Obama
615 whites
4 hispanics
5 asians
McCains best ed in Williamsburg 211 votes for McCain, 22 for Obama, 1 for other
904 whites
2 blacks
36 hispanics
4 others
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2012, 05:29:05 am »

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2012, 07:21:49 am »

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.

There are 500,000+ Orthodox Jews in NYC per NY Jew. He's at about 5% of them so far.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2012, 12:58:38 pm »

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.

There are 500,000+ Orthodox Jews in NYC per NY Jew. He's at about 5% of them so far.
how would you have me do this.  I'm purposely doing this by neighborhood so any of you doubters could check my work for your self and see if you think it's accurate.

besides I'm way over 5% now. thanks to children and the fact that I already did the neighborhood with the worst turnout rates in the city.
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: July 29, 2012, 03:05:24 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
understand the fact that the turnout rates between different Orthodox communities drastically differ from one another and need to be worked out differently.

I repeat there is a drastic difference between different Orthodox communities in many ways and each needs to be calculated individually. 

for example here are the breakdowns you want for the most McCain ED in different Jewish neighborhoods in NYC and you'll see why this can't be averaged out.

McCains best ed in Far Rockway 524 votes for McCain, 43 for Obama
18+ breakdown
758 whites
13 blacks
9 hispanics
2 asians
1 other
McCains best ed in Borough Park 322 votes for McCain, 8 for Obama
673 whites
8 hispanics
McCains best ed in Flatbush (Midwood-Gravesend) 364 votes for McCain, 37 for Obama
615 whites
4 hispanics
5 asians
McCains best ed in Williamsburg 211 votes for McCain, 22 for Obama, 1 for other
904 whites
2 blacks
36 hispanics
4 others

Yes, and that's why averages exist.  Al is right -- this is not proper electoral analysis.  Also, the Census gives 18+ populations by district too.  You can keep throwing numbers at us, but until you make an effort to contextualize it in a way that can actually be used to test a falsifiable hypothesis, this is all pretty silly.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #39 on: July 30, 2012, 12:21:19 am »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
understand the fact that the turnout rates between different Orthodox communities drastically differ from one another and need to be worked out differently.

I repeat there is a drastic difference between different Orthodox communities in many ways and each needs to be calculated individually. 

for example here are the breakdowns you want for the most McCain ED in different Jewish neighborhoods in NYC and you'll see why this can't be averaged out.

McCains best ed in Far Rockway 524 votes for McCain, 43 for Obama
18+ breakdown
758 whites
13 blacks
9 hispanics
2 asians
1 other
McCains best ed in Borough Park 322 votes for McCain, 8 for Obama
673 whites
8 hispanics
McCains best ed in Flatbush (Midwood-Gravesend) 364 votes for McCain, 37 for Obama
615 whites
4 hispanics
5 asians
McCains best ed in Williamsburg 211 votes for McCain, 22 for Obama, 1 for other
904 whites
2 blacks
36 hispanics
4 others

Yes, and that's why averages exist.  Al is right -- this is not proper electoral analysis.  Also, the Census gives 18+ populations by district too.  You can keep throwing numbers at us, but until you make an effort to contextualize it in a way that can actually be used to test a falsifiable hypothesis, this is all pretty silly.
those were above 18 populations

this is how you do proper electoral analysis (and why my numbers are accurate and polls are almost always wrong when done in the Jewish community)  an intelligent person does electoral analysis by actual numbers not AVGS.


did any one of you nay sayers (who I might add were too foolish to take me seriously when I correctly said Turner was going to win because of marriage) actually look up the election results in the areas I said and check to see if you agreed at all with my estimations of the Jewish vote.

avgs (even when 100% accurate which there is no way these numbers were) don't tell the whole story my numbers if accurate do.


maybe I shouldn't have put this information on this website because obviously people here are not smart enough to know that 20 +1 + 1 + 1 + 2 practically does not mean the same thing as a avg of 5.

PS my electoral analysis led to won of the most shocking defeats the democratic party ever had in NY.  So I wouldn't bash it to much.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2012, 01:29:43 am »

You are currently talking about the 2008 presidential election, not the NY-09 special. The exit polls in question refer to the former election, not the latter.
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Alcon
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« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2012, 02:32:28 am »

those were above 18 populations

Excellent, thanks.

this is how you do proper electoral analysis (and why my numbers are accurate and polls are almost always wrong when done in the Jewish community)  an intelligent person does electoral analysis by actual numbers not AVGS.

"Actual numbers, not averages"?  What do you think an average is, a color?

You're complaining that variance is high when it comes to turnout.  I'm saying that isn't a terminal problem to the analysis.

did any one of you nay sayers (who I might add were too foolish to take me seriously when I correctly said Turner was going to win because of marriage) actually look up the election results in the areas I said and check to see if you agreed at all with my estimations of the Jewish vote.

The Orthodox Jewish vote in 2008 was heavily Republican, as it is in most elections.  This is not new information to most of us.

avgs (even when 100% accurate which there is no way these numbers were) don't tell the whole story my numbers if accurate do.

No, they don't.  You're just showing statistics about a bunch of heavily Orthodox precincts, and claiming Jews are more Republican than exit polls and phone polls suggest.  You're skipping a few steps.

maybe I shouldn't have put this information on this website because obviously people here are not smart enough to know that 20 +1 + 1 + 1 + 2 practically does not mean the same thing as a avg of 5.

Is there a particular reason you're insulting my intelligence?  Also, yes, those numbers have an average of 5.  The fact that average may not be useful, for some reason, does not mean it doesn't exist.  Please tell me you're not one of those ridiculous people who says things like, "There's no average -- everything is different."  If we can reasonably approximate the average Orthodox turnout for New York, we can use that to test the hypothesis you're asserting.  There's no reason why the average shouldn't be used for that purpose, is there?

PS my electoral analysis led to won of the most shocking defeats the democratic party ever had in NY.  So I wouldn't bash it to much.

Did it?  I'm going to assume you mis-wrote this paragraph.  If your point was that you correctly predicted the unexpected outcome of an election, congratulations, that indicates you're at least as good as that chicken that chose the Super Bowl champion by pecking a photo of the winning quarterback.  Now, let's try to beat that chicken on soundness of methodology!
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NY Jew
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« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2012, 03:10:03 am »

You are currently talking about the 2008 presidential election, not the NY-09 special. The exit polls in question refer to the former election, not the latter.
everything I said here was about the presidential race (which was obvious considering I gave the votes for Obama and McCain)

I only referred to the special election to say that if your going to insult me and say I don't know what I'm doing with out using any actual argument.  I was just reminding you what I was called then.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2012, 03:13:29 am »
« Edited: July 30, 2012, 03:17:19 am by NY Jew »


did any one of you nay sayers (who I might add were too foolish to take me seriously when I correctly said Turner was going to win because of marriage) actually look up the election results in the areas I said and check to see if you agreed at all with my estimations of the Jewish vote.

The Orthodox Jewish vote in 2008 was heavily Republican, as it is in most elections.  This is not new information to most of us.
actually it's all over the place and it depends drastically on the candidate and where their running.


In the 2008 pres election it mathematically impossible for the exit polls in the NE to be accurate with so many McCain voting areas if there was such a low sample size.

can you honestly say that Jewish vote (including Orthodox and Russians) in the NE were not much more for McCain then in it was in the West?


those were above 18 populations

avgs (even when 100% accurate which there is no way these numbers were) don't tell the whole story my numbers if accurate do.

No, they don't.  You're just showing statistics about a bunch of heavily Orthodox precincts, and claiming Jews are more Republican than exit polls and phone polls suggest.  You're skipping a few steps.

that's not at all what I was doing I was trying to calculate the vote of all Orthodox jews in a certain neighborhood.
what I was doing by cherry picking EDs was just to show you how different each Jewish community was in turnout.  the other EDs in the same neighborhoods have similar %s of Orthodox Jews showing up

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in response to the first question because I was insulted first

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.
Al is right -- this is not proper electoral analysis.

everything I said (assuming you actually understood it which based on my "unique" writing style is very possible you didn't) would help you figure out what I'm saying.

depends where and when understand the Orthodox Jewish community is really many different Jewish communities that are in many stats at opposite extremes.  The divergence in behaviors between the avg secular Jew in Connecticut and the avg secular Jew in Suffolk County is next to nothing compared to the divergence in behaviors between the avg Orthodox Jew in Far Rockway and the avg Orthodox Jew in Williamsburg.   I do believe that avgs are important informational tool but only if you know what your doing.  averaging out Orthodox trends with out knowing context is 100% useless. 


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I did a lot more then just correctly predict the outcome in that race on these forum (not that I'm going to say what I did on the internet to a bunch of liberals)
besides I was referring to a different campaign that I worked on.

Though I do regret saying anything because I appreciate my anonymity.



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« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2012, 06:07:13 am »

actually it's all over the place and it depends drastically on the candidate and where their running.

yes, I know.  i was talking about the 2008 presidential race.

In the 2008 pres election it mathematically impossible for the exit polls in the NE to be accurate with so many McCain voting areas if there was such a low sample size.

Please, show us your math for this.  I was asking you to do this the entire time.  (See below if you need an elaboration.)

can you honestly say that Jewish vote (including Orthodox and Russians) in the NE were not much more for McCain then in it was in the West?

No, I imagine it was more Republican.  Can you stop ascribing me arguments I'm not making and start actually running the analysis required to soundly prove or reject your hypothesis?

that's not at all what I was doing I was trying to calculate the vote of all Orthodox jews in a certain neighborhood.
what I was doing by cherry picking EDs was just to show you how different each Jewish community was in turnout.  the other EDs in the same neighborhoods have similar %s of Orthodox Jews showing up

...how is that different from what I said you were doing?

in response to the first question because I was insulted first

Where did I insult your intelligence?  Moreover, unless you actually think I'm unintelligent or arguing unintelligently, why bother?

Also, why did you ignore the rest of that paragraph, which was my substantive criticism of your analysis?

everything I said (assuming you actually understood it which based on my "unique" writing style is very possible you didn't) would help you figure out what I'm saying.

Trust me, I'm doing my best to figure out what you're saying.  Communication problems happen, "unique" writing styles or not.

depends where and when understand the Orthodox Jewish community is really many different Jewish communities that are in many stats at opposite extremes.  The divergence in behaviors between the avg secular Jew in Connecticut and the avg secular Jew in Suffolk County is next to nothing compared to the divergence in behaviors between the avg Orthodox Jew in Far Rockway and the avg Orthodox Jew in Williamsburg.   I do believe that avgs are important informational tool but only if you know what your doing.  averaging out Orthodox trends with out knowing context is 100% useless. 

You're arguing that the means of finding the average might be wrong, not that averaging is inappropriate.

I did a lot more then just correctly predict the outcome in that race on these forum (not that I'm going to say what I did on the internet to a bunch of liberals)
besides I was referring to a different campaign that I worked on.

Though I do regret saying anything because I appreciate my anonymity.

Shrug, man.  I have no doubt that you know more about Orthodox Judaism in NYC than me.  I've spent a few days in Manhattan, and even my more devout Jewish friends will break kosher if they can use someone else's silverware.  That doesn't excuse you from using sloppy methodology in your analysis, though.  Mathematically: Scientifically-processed educated intuition > educated intuition > my intuition.  But just because my uneducated intuition is inferior to yours doesn't excuse sloppy methodology.

Here's what you need to do.  Find a decent representation of Orthodox communities, like a regression model that extrapolates to a theoretical 100% Orthodox community using as many data points (representative, varied Orthodox communities as you can.)  Use that to estimate what percent of Orthodox turn out, and how their votes break down.  You can then use statewide Jewish results from exit polls.  With those sets of information, you can estimate what percentage of non-Orthodox Jews would have to be Democratic voters for the exit polls to be accurate.  This is tricky and may involve small data sets, but dude, it is still better than throwing out numbers and saying "this seems wrong" like you're doing right now.

You seem to have a lot of nervous energy about this issue...dedicate that toward testing this in a sound way and you may prove yourself probabilistically right.  But short of that, this topic is kinda silly season.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2012, 09:25:51 am »
« Edited: July 30, 2012, 01:21:06 pm by NY Jew »


can you honestly say that Jewish vote (including Orthodox and Russians) in the NE were not much more for McCain then in it was in the West?

No, I imagine it was more Republican.  Can you stop ascribing me arguments I'm not making and start actually running the analysis required to soundly prove or reject your hypothesis?
but that was the whole proof that the numbers were false
I'll respond to the rest of your post later
then you didn't understand my point from the beginning
look at this
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf
here is my basic argument
1. the sample size was only 952 people for the whole country (page 4) (so if the Orthodox vote was accurate there wasn't enough of a non Orthodox Jewish vote in the NE to counteract the NY strong McCain vote)
2. page 14 shows that the West voted more for McCain then the NE.



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NY Jew
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« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2012, 09:32:31 am »

Here's what you need to do.  Find a decent representation of Orthodox communities, like a regression model that extrapolates to a theoretical 100% Orthodox community using as many data points (representative, varied Orthodox communities as you can.)  Use that to estimate what percent of Orthodox turn out, and how their votes break down.  You can then use statewide Jewish results from exit polls.  With those sets of information, you can estimate what percentage of non-Orthodox Jews would have to be Democratic voters for the exit polls to be accurate.  This is tricky and may involve small data sets, but dude, it is still better than throwing out numbers and saying "this seems wrong" like you're doing right now.

You seem to have a lot of nervous energy about this issue...dedicate that toward testing this in a sound way and you may prove yourself probabilistically right.  But short of that, this topic is kinda silly season.

what I was trying to do was to approximate the actual number of the Orthodox vote in the NE and I was just working community by community.  (the Jewish vote in NYS was to small a sample size for the exit polls (which also implies that it underestimated the NYS Jewish McCain vote))
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« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2012, 03:54:20 pm »

There is a more objective way to do this:

You can order the voter registration database from the NY state board of elections.

And run a Jewish surname check to find out where the Jewish voters are and in which election
districts.  The database will show who voted in recent elections as well as much other information.

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Alcon
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« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2012, 08:10:41 pm »

but that was the whole proof that the numbers were false
I'll respond to the rest of your post later
then you didn't understand my point from the beginning
look at this
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf
here is my basic argument
1. the sample size was only 952 people for the whole country (page 4) (so if the Orthodox vote was accurate there wasn't enough of a non Orthodox Jewish vote in the NE to counteract the NY strong McCain vote)
2. page 14 shows that the West voted more for McCain then the NE.

Your basic argument is that you think the Orthodox vote must mean that Northeastern Jews are more conservative overall, and because polls find otherwise, the polls must be undercounting the Orthodox.  That's a reasonable hypothesis.  The problem is that you're not testing it in a scientifically sound way -- or really testing it all, so much as searching for evidence to support your hypothesis.

what I was trying to do was to approximate the actual number of the Orthodox vote in the NE and I was just working community by community. 

That's what I'm asking you to do.  You have several steps to go before you have statistically useful information.

(the Jewish vote in NYS was to small a sample size for the exit polls (which also implies that it underestimated the NYS Jewish McCain vote))

What, why?  I can see how it would be potentially consistent with that, but how does it imply that?
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NY Jew
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« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2012, 11:47:06 pm »

but that was the whole proof that the numbers were false
I'll respond to the rest of your post later
then you didn't understand my point from the beginning
look at this
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf
here is my basic argument
1. the sample size was only 952 people for the whole country (page 4) (so if the Orthodox vote was accurate there wasn't enough of a non Orthodox Jewish vote in the NE to counteract the NY strong McCain vote)
2. page 14 shows that the West voted more for McCain then the NE.

Your basic argument is that you think the Orthodox vote must mean that Northeastern Jews are more conservative overall, and because polls find otherwise, the polls must be undercounting the Orthodox.  That's a reasonable hypothesis.  The problem is that you're not testing it in a scientifically sound way -- or really testing it all, so much as searching for evidence to support your hypothesis.

what I'm doing is going through different Orthodox (and soon also Russian communities) to estimate the actual vote (though I'm also trying to use low estimates for the most part) of conservative Jewish demographics in the NE based on the actual results so we can then figure out (assuming my number is correct) how much the liberal Jewish demographics would have to vote to have the NE numbers meet the actual number in the exit polls for the NE.

The reason I'm working so slowly is because 1 time constraints and 2. to give someone the ability to argue with my estimates for a Jewish neighborhood.

when I'm finished with adding up Jewish neighborhoods (I most likely am going to ignore those demographics in some areas with not that many Orthodox Jews because even though they also voted for McCain it would be almost impossible to accurately guess how many Orthodox Jews voted so I'll assume they didn't vote (because it's I don't think by that point it will make a difference))

I don't see if I'm doing this neighborhood by neighborhood and then adding it up why I need to include census info.

all we have to do when I'm done is figure out approximately how many non Orthodox/Russian Jews voted in the NE and we'll have the information your seeking.  Figuring that out is irrelevant to the population in individual Orthodox areas because we can figure that out based on using Jewish demographics studies.  Using this method I can't figure out why Orthodox turnout will ever be necessary.

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assuming I do what I said above (and I have no way of knowing the typical secular American Jewish turnout) is there anything I'm missing.

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according to this site (this site is easier to read then the one it quoted from)

(this underestimates NYC, this is because it uses 2002 Federation numbers for NYC and not the recently released numbers)
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html

total Jewish population in the country 6,588,065 in 2011 (these numbers can also be nitpicked but lets assume their accurate)
this is not of sample size
total Jewish population in NYS 1,635,020
these are of sample size
NE 3,157,670
West 1,613,225
South 1,107,140
MW 710,030

(considering over half of all Orthodox Jews in America are living in NYS I think my point is very clear)

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