2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)

[NY Jew]

what I'm doing is going through different Orthodox (and soon also Russian communities) to estimate the actual vote (though I'm also trying to use low estimates for the most part) of conservative Jewish demographics in the NE based on the actual results so we can then figure out (assuming my number is correct) how much the liberal Jewish demographics would have to vote to have the NE numbers meet the actual number in the exit polls for the NE.

Yes...and unless every orthodox Jew fits neatly into an election district, the best way of doing that is to approximate the average Orthodox Jewish community turnout, and then use the estimate of Orthodox Jews 18+ in New York state times that number to estimate the Orthodox Jewish vote.  Your current method is going to miss a lot, isn't it?

1. I can't accurately estimate their vote (because in general the more Orthodox the neighborhood the more likelihood that the Orthodox Jew in question voted republican)
so even though I will though they voted for McCain they were likely voting at rates much lower then in almost every single Orthodox neighborhood.
2. I can pretend they don't exist because I'm sure I can prove my point with or with out them.

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If you were trying to poll Jews ACCURATELY
is this scenario possible
NYS 1,635,020 (to small a sample size to report on)

NE 3,157,670 (good sample size)
West 1,613,225 (good sample size)
South 1,107,140 (good sample size)
MW 710,030 (good sample size)

wouldn't there be a very good chance you'll underestimate the NYS vote

[NY Jew]

I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...

many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

but remember the exit polls were clearly wrong (and jews voted more for McCain) which is why this thread exists.

[NY Jew]

I find it extremely ironic that Jewish Americans tend to be liberal and vote 75-80% Democrat since liberals and the Democratic Party have started to embrace many seemingly anti-Semitic and anti-Israel elements in their party.  Since Jews also tend to be very fiscally conservative, I would think that Republicans would be a better fit for the Jewish community on both those issues.  Then again, I'm a Republican and very much philo-Semitic (a lover of Jews), so I sort of have a vested interest in saying that...

many American jews wouldn't care if every single Jew in Israel was killed.

but remember the exit polls were clearly wrong (and jews voted more for McCain) which is why this thread exists.

This thread exists because of your conspiracy theories...

it's not a conspiracy theory it's mathematical facts that you can check up assuming your smart enough to know elementary school math. 

[NY Jew]

NYS 1,635,020 (to small a sample size to report on)

NE 3,157,670 (good sample size)
West 1,613,225 (good sample size)
South 1,107,140 (good sample size)
MW 710,030 (good sample size)

wouldn't there be a very good chance you'll underestimate the NYS vote

What?  That's not how random sampling works

please elaborate how you think it works and then I'll respond

my basic point is since most Jews who live in Jewish majority area vote very conservative and most jews who live in non Jewish majority areas vote liberal.  since random sampling is random and majority of all areas with jews are a non jewish majority random sampling of the country at large is worthless.  I don't think it's possible to make a accurate poll of the jewish vote that doesn't have a decent sample size from NY (enough to publish by the networks).

[NY Jew]

my basic point is since most Jews who live in Jewish majority area vote very conservative and most jews who live in non Jewish majority areas vote liberal.  since random sampling is random and majority of all areas with jews are a non jewish majority random sampling of the country at large is worthless.  I don't think it's possible to make a accurate poll of the jewish vote that doesn't have a decent sample size from NY (enough to publish by the networks).

A perfectly valid - or, at least, plausible (to the extent that we don't have enough data to either confirm or refute it) - point. If only you made it without screaming, I would have bothered to read what you are saying a lot earlier.

thank you for reading it
but how can I scream while typing?

if you can tell me what specifically you didn't like about my tone on this specific thread that will be greatly appreciated.

[NY Jew]

What?  That's not how random sampling works

Random sampling of what? This polls wasn't designed to give a good estimate of the Jewish vote - it's prime objective is to figure out who won. A "Jewish" poll would have to sample New York a lot heavier than Texas. A national poll would need to oversample NY to give reliable data on NY Jewry - and the fact that a separate number on NY is not reported suggests this is not done (sensibly enough). NY ultra-Orthodox are pretty negligible as far as the national exit poll is concerned, but much more important to figure out the Jewish vote.  Given how concentrated the ultra-Orthodox vote is, it is unlikely to have been sampled much. Perhaps some statistical adjustment has been made to take account of this: but it is not obvious. And, in any case, it is very unlikely that substantial enough numbers from those insular communities have been sampled in the first place to make such adjustment doable. Not at all a problem for the national exit poll. But a big problem if you are after figuring out how "the Jews" voted.

No, his point is totally valid with exit polls, like you point out.  My exchange with him has been going on for several pages and has moved onto the standard fare about how exit polls aren't representative.  Mainly, I'm still unclear what sort of empirical use he's going for when he adds up these Orthodox communities... as far as I can tell, his point is, "look how many Orthodox Jews, and they're very Republican, so Northeastern Jews must be much more Republican than believed!" 

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no what I'm saying is that since Orthodox Jews are tremendously underrepresented in the polls.  The polls are useless to giving an accurate figure of the total Jewish vote.

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that's the main point

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I'm saying that Northeastern Jews are much more conservative than Jews out side of the North East because of the numbers of non stereotypical Jews.

Assuming the numbers to the poll are accurate only for the stereotypical Jews.  the statement I quoted from you is accurate.  and even if the polls are inaccurate for stereotypical Jews the statement will still be accurate if the numbers for the avg stereotypical Jews are similar in all 4 regions.

[NY Jew]

here's the basic point
this is the breakdown of Jews and Orthodox Jews by region
% of all Jews in the country    % Orthodox Jews in the country
NE 47.9%                                 81.8%
S 16.8%                                   5.3%
MW 10.8%                               5.9%
W 24.5%                                 7%

In addition I said the avg Orthodox Jew in NY Metro is much more Conservative then the avg Orthodox Jew out of it.

this is also can be shown for Russian Jews and other types of non stereotypical Jews who are also disproportionately represented in the NE.

[NY Jew]

I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

No, but their daily poll adds up to a statistically significant number of respondents from even small sub-populations over time, and they periodically report it.

when it comes to the Jewish vote in various I think I remember a few times that Gallop had some extreme outliers.   this is more true in polls of NY state.  I've seen a few phone polls for the Jewish vote in NY state that had completely different results a few weeks a part (the media of course took both set of polls as accurate)

for example when I saw different opinion polls of the Jewish opinion on gay marriage in NY state Iv'e seen different  polls with more then a 40 point spread.  factually on the ground Orthodox Jews could be as much as 1/3 of the NY state Jewish electorate (the few times I ever saw polls of "Orthodox" jews it was never more then 10% who supported it and even in the most liberal orthodox Jewish communities it never approaches 20% the only "question" is should we become 1 issue voters)  (just to make clear my point is just to show how polling numbers are all over the place)



PS I doubt almost anyone in the most insular (this doesn't mean most religious) Orthodox communities will ever talk to pollsters (these are the type of Jews who would vote in American elections but not Israeli ones).  In other non modern Orthodox communities also I think the response rate would be less then in the avg public by a significant margin.

I also doubt Russian Jewish voters are polled to much do to the language problem.

[NY Jew]

But that argues that New York's Margin of Error is large, not that New York is somehow "underestimated"

Yeah, the point is that NY numbers may be wildly off - and that's the reason they are not reported separately. But the problem is, a good poll of Jewish voters would, probably, not have that problem

I don't know what Gallup does about Jewish polling. Have they actually polled Jews specifically?

Anyway, my point wasn't that NY Jew was right - it was that he was raising a valid issue. His choice of language was very unfortunate: so unfortunate, in fact, that I only started to read his posts in this thread to be able to claim he is talking nonsense. He isn't ))

you read my post just to make fun of them?

if you have a problem with my "choice of language" let me know what specifically so I can if possible try to change it next time.

[NY Jew]

for example when I saw different opinion polls of the Jewish opinion on gay marriage in NY state Iv'e seen different  polls with more then a 40 point spread.  factually on the ground Orthodox Jews could be as much as 1/3 of the NY state Jewish electorate (the few times I ever saw polls of "Orthodox" jews it was never more then 10% who supported it and even in the most liberal orthodox Jewish communities it never approaches 20% the only "question" is should we become 1 issue voters)  (just to make clear my point is just to show how polling numbers are all over the place)

And why is that, sample size?

the media usually reports it as a fickle electorate when talking to the pollsters and sites the exit polls as proof that Jews don't change.

The easiest way to prove my "thesis" would just be to publicize what zip code the polls were taken in.  unfortunately most pollsters are extremely secretive on polling info.  even a county breakdown for Jews only in NY polls would be very beneficial to proving this but I doubt they would do even that.

As it is I think I proved part of this unfortunately I don't think it possible to figure out even close to the true number because even if I can somehow estimate the exact conservative Jewish demographic vote I never will know the exact breakdown of the old polls by Jewish demographics and therefore will most likely do the same problem in reverse.

What I'm foolishly hoping for is that they can try to use certain weights to at least make these polls somewhat accurate.

since as far as I understand pollsters do this by zip code I think the same problem comes into play if they don't specifically look for the Jewish vote because even if most Jews are conservative in NYC most Zip codes's jews in NYC are majority liberal.

in regards to the phone polls I think it's just luck whether or not they happen to pick a zip code that has a lot of Orthodox Jews or miss them.  Remember their top priorities are not the Jewish vote but the overall number.

Quinnip for example almost always underestimates the Orthodox vote (this can easily be shown based on their results 100% at odds with the facts on the ground)

for example in this poll
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1756

the gay marriage vote is 100% impossible to be true
there is no way that only 11% of NY state Jews are against gay marriage (I don't even think this close to true even with the biggest Bradley effect ever)
I don't think it's possible that Orthodox Jews are less then 20% of the total electorate even using the most liberal estimates of number of voters for non Orthodox Jews and conservative estimates of number of voters for Orthodox Jews.
yet only 11% of Jews are against gay "marriage"
I've spoken to many Orthodox Jews (numerically not % wise) who voted for Obama.
I can count on my hands the number of Orthodox Jews I've spoken to who are in favor of gay "marriage"  I've met Jews who (stupidly) don't think we should be 1 issue voters, but their still against it and openly say so and even protest it.  (remember this is just trying to show you the problem with Jews in the polls)
also from what I can tell (don't want to side track) over 50% of the Russian Jewish community is against gay marriage.
(this whole point is to tell that they obviously underestimated the conservative Jewish vote)

more illustrations of the problem with that poll (and I can show you this in almost all their polls)
 in the Obama-Romney vote in NY state is 72%-24% for Obama. which is right around the number in the national polls.
now compare the Jewish numbers in that poll to these one
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY0712%20Crosstabs.pdf

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/SNY051412%20Crosstabs.pdf

even just using siena the numbers for the Jewish vote seem to change the most (I don't think it's the sample sample size and I don't think there are to many if any Jews who changed their opinion on Obama since May (I don't think anyone has ever accused Jews (of any stripe) of being undecided voters))

[NY Jew]

Phone polls are not done by ZIP code.

You haven't "proven" anything.  You've presented one obviously compelling thesis (the exit poll issue) and then one potentially true thesis (the phone poll issue) which you've "proven" in a way without any clear, consistent, prearranged methodology.  You may well be right

The MoE on those polls -- even if they got a perfect sample -- is nearly +/-10%.  Why would you think it's not sample size?

Again, your thesis is reasonable, but you seem like you're actively setting out to prove your thesis right...which is a problem.

My point about the zip codes was for exit polls. (the last time I reffered to zip codes I meant block)
the other point was referring to phone polls (not sure which ones do this) that take random blocks of phone numbers (which as far as understand would be based on geography)


One thing that might effect phone polls (this would only be a minor effect though) is that since it it done by each individual phone line it might overestimate single person households.

In general Orthodox Jews have some of the highest being married rates.

not sure if they adjust for this factor that certain demographics are more likely to share 1 phone line.

(not sure how cell phone will play into this now.)

[NY Jew]

Not having read the whole thread, can one get any sense whether Orthodox Jews were underrepresented in the sample? If they were not, then NYJew's case kind of falls apart overall. If they were under-sampled, then potential he's right, assuming that there is a big ideological difference.  Does the below give any clue as to what percentage of the Jewish sample were Orthodox, and how does that comport with the breakdown between sects among the Jews who are voters? What percentage of self identified Jews over 18 call themselves "Orthodox?"  25%?  Wiki says 13%, and of adults over 18 we might be getting down close to 10%.  If so, there is just not much gas in their tank no matter how they vote.

But yes, it does appear to be an important question.

but when doing a break down of the USA by region it should make a big difference.  because in the NE it's around double the % of the rest of the country.


ps that info was 8 years old by the time of the 2008 election (that itself can increase the Orthodox  % at least 1 %)
see page 16 (this was the study wiki quoted)
http://www.jewishfederations.org/local_includes/downloads/7579.pdf

[NY Jew]

That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?

it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.

[NY Jew]

That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?

it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.

Your ex NE numbers don't average out to 3% of the Jews outside thereof being orthodox, and 97% of the self identified Jews not. It doesn't matter that Iowa does not have many Jews. It matters what percentage of all 2,500 of them or whatever or Orthodox. Actually, that does  not matter much either. What matters is that are the other major ex-NE Jewish nodes, in particular LA, just 3% Orthodox (some of the smaller nodes you already suggested are much higher)?  That is the math you have to deal with, if just 10% of the Jewish voters are Orthodox, but twice that percentage in the NE. You get shoved out on a limb with a seemingly absurd number as to the Orthodox percentage ex-NE - unless you don't think it absurd.

because the study you gave was 10 years old (and 8 years old as of the election) and wasn't as thorough as the local studies

Orthodox Jews have grown since then and it's very likely non Orthodox Jews actually. shrunk since then.

right now Orthodox are most likely a few% point over 10%

[NY Jew]

OK, but the point is that the overall total Orthodox percentage to make your numbers in the hunt needs to be about 15% of Jewish voters being Orthodox, rather than 10%.  That is a pretty big jump in 10 years.

one problem is there are many  different studies that have completely different numbers.
the point of combining them was just to show % breakdown of location of Jews which is usually the most accurate thing about all these surveys

[NY Jew]

My point about the zip codes was for exit polls. (the last time I reffered to zip codes I meant block)
the other point was referring to phone polls (not sure which ones do this) that take random blocks of phone numbers (which as far as understand would be based on geography)

Right, but I already said exit polls are problematic.

I see no reason why choosing random phone numbers based on registered blocks would undersample Orthodox households...

One thing that might effect phone polls (this would only be a minor effect though) is that since it it done by each individual phone line it might overestimate single person households.

In general Orthodox Jews have some of the highest being married rates.

not sure if they adjust for this factor that certain demographics are more likely to share 1 phone line.

(not sure how cell phone will play into this now.)

Again, you're throwing out hypotheses to bolster your intuitions and hypotheses, and not creating methodologies to actually prove them.  I just don't know where you're going with this.  You can create hypotheses that run against your intuitions, too -- so this exercise doesn't seem to be leading to "proving" anything, if that's what you want to do.

the question I have is
is random sampling 100% random?
is there a system that overplays having many different area codes and first 3 digits in a phone number.

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do we agree that polls work by household an single people (with out weights) will be over estimated in the polls.

if this is true then Orthodox Jews will be underestimated in the polls.

[NY Jew]

the question I have is
is random sampling 100% random?

No.

is there a system that overplays having many different area codes and first 3 digits in a phone number.

I'm not sure what you mean -- pollsters may skip dialing phones in ranges they know to not be in use.  Besides the valid household issue, I'm really not sure where you're going here, or what area codes have to do with it.

do we agree that polls work by household an single people (with out weights) will be over estimated in the polls.

if this is true then Orthodox Jews will be underestimated in the polls.

I don't know how/if pollsters account for this, but this topic is starting to be very frustrating for me for reasons I've stated several times.  It doesn't seem like you're interested in approaching this methodically.

As far as I can tell I already proved that either the exit polls were wrong
either the NE was more for McCain or the rest of the country went more for Obama.

the area codes comment basically means this
if only trying to track the Jewish vote certain area codes and first 3 digit codes have more Jews then others.  thus lets say I would need to take a very high sample size from 718, but if I was doing the whole country (including non jews) as a whole I would take much less.  To prevent this from happening my question is do randomized numbers include a cap on how many from a specific area?


how would you prove it?

in regards to phone polls there are plenty of reasons that would guarantee a underestimate in the polls by Orthodox Jews unless there are some weights in place to counteract it.

there is some proof that Orthodox Jews respond much less than their numbers to the pollsters
see page 25 (and they underestimated the % of Orthodox Jews in the country anyway)
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_Values_Survey_2012_Frequencies.pdf.

[NY Jew]

the area codes comment basically means this
if only trying to track the Jewish vote certain area codes and first 3 digit codes have more Jews then others.  thus lets say I would need to take a very high sample size from 718, but if I was doing the whole country (including non jews) as a whole I would take much less.  To prevent this from happening my question is do randomized numbers include a cap on how many from a specific area?

The polls I'm referencing don't specifically seek out Jews.  They are national polls that, over time, happen to have enough respondents (thousands and thousands) that even proportionally small sub-samples (like Jews) gain hundreds of respondents, and can be reported.  Their sampling is normal for a randomized national poll.

Your area code point is still confusing me.  Are you saying that, if you were specifically looking for Jewish responses, you might limit your poll to Jew-heavy area codes?  None of the polls I'm doing do this.  They also wouldn't, because a representative sample of Jews must be equally likely to sample a Jew in New York as a Jew in Utah.  If the two aren't equally likely to be sampled, the poll would not be of a representative sample.  However, I still feel like I'm missing your point, because capping respondents by area codes would be a pretty nonsensical solution to this problem.

My basic point is that the only way to poll all jews accurately in a national poll would be to have a high sample from NY state.  Which would not happen in a National poll when trying to also poll the whole country accurately.  Thus the likelihood of underestimating NY's Jewish vote in these polls.

there is some proof that Orthodox Jews respond much less than their numbers to the pollsters
see page 25 (and they underestimated the % of Orthodox Jews in the country anyway)
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_Values_Survey_2012_Frequencies.pdf.

There's a good start!  You can even assume that Orthodox Jewish response in other surveys is comparably lower (although an MoE would apply) and re-weight accordingly.  Something.  Just something with numbers.  That's all I'm saying -- you can do this objectively, and that's better than just throwing around hypotheses.

Also (I'd check but I have to sleep) not entirely clear on why the parameter sample is assumed to be the true Orthodox percent (although 8% does seem more realistic.)

Pretty impressive that, even in the weighted sample, the same-sex marriage approval numbers come out 81%-18%.
[/quote]
There is no estimate in recent years that places the Orthodox % at 8%  so assuming there is any basis to this they may be trying to guess the turnout rate.

Also I'm almost 100% sure Orthodox Jews who are more to the right would answer the polls less.

[NY Jew]

As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.

Brookline 82.3% for Obama
Newton 76.4% for Obama

It's not just NY state it's also in NJ
some Heavily Jewish areas in NJ went for McCain.

I see no proof that overall the non Orthodox, Russian vote outside of the NE is MORE liberal than in it.

keep in mind the bay area is in the west and was almost guaranteed to be Obama's best area amongst Jews in the country.

[NY Jew]

As a side-note any exit poll of NE also needs to include Massachusetts Jews in places like Brookline/Newton who probably voted 85%+ for Obama in 2008. Even if McCain managed 37-40% overall of New York Jews(and 85-90% of Orthodox) he quite conceivably could have lost them about 80-20 outside of New York.

Heavily Jewish towns in Massachusetts/Connecticut were pretty heavy for Obama.

Brookline 82.3% for Obama
Newton 76.4% for Obama

It's not just NY state it's also in NJ
some Heavily Jewish areas in NJ went for McCain.

I see no proof that overall the non Orthodox, Russian vote outside of the NE is MORE liberal than in it.

keep in mind the bay area is in the west and was almost guaranteed to be Obama's best area amongst Jews in the country.

The McCain votes in those towns were not coming from the Jewish residents.

proof?

from what I can tell the non Jews in those areas are more liberal then the jews.