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  2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 16972 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: July 27, 2012, 12:30:03 pm »

There is no flippin' way McCain won the Jewish vote in NYC. End of story.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2012, 12:53:12 pm »

How are the totals coming out for votes in the EDs and as a share of the population as a whole?

You can win 99% of Crown Heights and Brighton Beach and not have a majority of the Jewish vote in NYC given that there are 1+ million Jews in the city. I am counting secular or non-religious Jews, or Jews who go to services on the high holidays but arent regularly affiliated with a synagogue, as Jews if they identify as such to a pollster.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2012, 12:58:03 pm »

Note that if McCain won an ED with a few thousand votes in Brooklyn he lost Jews in most parts of Manhattan by a landslide. You have to count Jews who vote against your candidate and aren't part of your community, too, rather than just look at the few neighborhoods you know best and say "he did pretty well here, so I bet I can assume he won across the city."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2012, 07:21:49 am »

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.

There are 500,000+ Orthodox Jews in NYC per NY Jew. He's at about 5% of them so far.
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