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  2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)  (Read 16981 times)
NY Jew
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« on: July 11, 2012, 03:24:59 pm »
« edited: July 27, 2012, 03:20:50 pm by NY Jew »

according to this website
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf

they only polled 952 people throughout the whole country (bet you not one was in a area that Jews actually voted for McCain).

and there was no significant difference in polling between any region of the country (the North East finished 2nd out 4 in highest % for Obama)


Since it's very possible that in NYC McCain possibly even won the Jewish vote (he had around 25 eds where he got over 90% plus many more in both the 80% and 70%). he also got 90% in eds in Nassau, Orange, Rockland, and Ocean (NJ) counties. he clearly (look at the results) also did well with jews in many other Jewish parts of the north east.

based on these facts those polls are 100% worthless there is no way that they could even be close to accurate.

In short McCain most likely actually did much better then the polls stated he did (and the Jewish vote numbers are not worth the paper their written on).
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NY Jew
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2012, 05:25:51 pm »

it's still mathematically impossible for those numbers to be accurate.

NE Jews would have to have voted much more liberal then Jews from SF for this to be remotely accurate.

argue based on math.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2012, 05:52:44 pm »


Only 13% of American Jews are Orthodox. Reform and Conservative Jews are much more likely to be politically liberal, and also much less likely to live in heavily Jewish enclaves.
first of all I think we're around 15% now (though in 2008 it was probably around 13%)


but that's irrelevant to my point

at least 80% of all Orthodox Jews (and they also probably also voted for McCain at a higher rate then other Orthodox Jews out of the NE) live in the NE and easily over half of all Russian Jews live in the NE. (do you want me to list neighborhoods where we can give actual numbers (not polls) of how strong the Jewish vote was against Obama)

the fact that the exit polls don't show any real difference between Jews for McCain from the NE and the West clearly shows that the polls underestimated the right wing Jewish vote in the NE. (and looking at Jewish areas in the NE and comparing it to the west also seems to show that the avg (non Orthodox ext.) NE Jew voted more for McCain (though he still voted for Obama) then the avg Jew in the West Coast)

and if you think it's irrelevant it would take around 28,000 Jews to vote 100% for Obama just to get back to the 74% after only including an area of around 50,000 mostly Jews (the non Jews most likely were a big chunk of Obama's 10%) in Borough Park. (now we would do this again for many other Jewish McCain neighborhoods (including the rest of BP) in NYC, LI, Upstate, NJ, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Mass, CT ext.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2012, 05:58:30 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2012, 06:01:27 pm by NY Jew »

The Orthodox Jews have much higher TFRs than the others. The Reform TFR is estimated at below the 1.8 that is recorded for US Whites, which is already below replacement. I would not be surprised if under-18 Jews were already more Orthodox than Jews at large, especially as Reform/Conservative meld into the American mean and already have low birth rates.
it was around 61% in NYC this past year. in Baltimore in 2009 there was a slight majority of all Jewish children under 5 were Orthodox.

in a few years from now I think the majority of all Jewish children born in America will be from Orthodox families.  and a few years later you will be right.  it will take a while till we're majority of the Jewish electorate though.

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NY Jew
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2012, 06:04:07 pm »

What amount of non-Orthodox USSR GOP Jews are there?

I don't know the number for the whole NE or country for that matter but In NYC there were 199,000 Russian Jews and 17,000 in LI, and Westchester (around 10% of this could be Orthodox)

and how conservative they are McCain got 80% in part of Brighton Beach (McCain's best non Orthodox ED in NY)
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NY Jew
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2012, 06:08:49 pm »
« Edited: July 13, 2012, 06:15:25 pm by NY Jew »

I haven't looked at the numbers, but your proposition that Orthodox Jews must be underrepresented in this survey of which you complain makes the assumption that Orthodox Jews vote at the same rates as non-Orthodox Jews.  I doubt that is the case, since with other religions the degree of religiosity affects voting rates.  Indeed, at one time evangelical Christians tended to shun politics as being too worldly.  It's also possible that Orthodox Jews have different response rates to pollsters.
Yes in Israel Orthodox Jews and Russian Jews are always underestimated in the polls
in addition the Jewish vote was determinedly by randomly placed exit polls (that weren't even looking for the jewish vote specifically) considering that Orthodox Jews (and for that matter Russian Jews) live in much less areas overall (even proportionately to their population) compared to non Orthodox Jews. It's much more likely that they were never even asked to fill out an exit poll.

my point is that if Geographically there isn't a major distinction between the NE and the rest of the country it's impossible that the total number's accurate.

for example it would take 28,000 votes 100% for Obama to counteract (back down to the 74% for Obama) just the heart of Borough Park (these numbers are based on the election results not polls)


The strong McCain vote (that doesn't exist anywhere else even close to what it does in the NE) should mean that if this poll was accurate NE Jews would be the most by far the most for McCain of all the regions listed. and that didn't happen

If you want to mathematically defend these polls (and say they didn't way underestimate the conservative voting Jewish demographics) you would have to argue that Jews (non Orthodox/Russian ext. Jews ) in the NE were voting for Obama at a 90% rate (the secular Jewish neighborhoods don't support that theory) but every where else at a around 74%.  which is also impossible because the only way that could be shown is with a much highers sample size.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2012, 10:11:54 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2012, 10:20:56 am by NY Jew »

could you add up the total turnout in the orthodox Jewish EDs of New York so we can calculate what approximate percentage of NY Jewish voters live in these areas (using the exit poll for the statewide total)?

It's reasonable to argue that Orthodox Jews are underrepresented in exit polls, but unless they refuse/are missed by phone pollsters at unusual rates, you're going to struggle to dismiss the phone polls on the subject -- which are the superior evidence here.
in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.

it's hard to do that because figuring out exactly what the % of Jewish vote was in some areas is next to impossible.

for example in Washington Heights in the most Jewish area McCain got 40% of the vote but the area also has gentrifies and Hispanics (mostly Dominican) which is why it was only 40%.

even in very liberal areas like the Upper West Side the Jewish vote (only) was most likely higher for McCain then the avg Jewish vote outside of the NE.

PS the are were no exit polls specifically for NY jews.

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NY Jew
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2012, 10:07:54 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 03:09:20 pm by NY Jew »

Could you at least try for an estimate?  For instance, you could figure out the overall turnout in an area that's ~100% Orthodox Jewish, versus the 18+ population, and then extrapolate if there's an estimate for the number of Orthodox Jews in New York.

Jews were included in the NY exit poll, also being only 3% of the sample, the results were suppressed in the public release for MoE reasons.  The data are probably available somewhere.  I'm just trying to find some empirical evidence here, however rough.

I don't know why you didn't respond to the phone poll part of my post.

I'm including Russians (when I get to areas with them) and other types of politically conservative jews in this and leaving out the typical American Jew.

I'm doing this by neighborhood so someone can correct my work.  and doing the easiest areas first.

please look at this to see if this looks accurate
Crown Heights I'm assuming it voted 90% for McCain

I'm assuming 3,000 people showed up
for a jewish vote of
2,700-300


Kiryas Yoel (I think there a quite a few votes outside of KJ that I didn't count)
2,757 - Obama 199


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NY Jew
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2012, 08:29:49 am »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas
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NY Jew
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2012, 09:38:08 am »

in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
I heard this from a Israeli pollster.
are you sure they don't weigh the polls in Israel to counteract this fact?

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NY Jew
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2012, 12:19:20 pm »

in Israel Orthodox Jews are usaly underestimated in the polls as are Russians.


This isn't really true, UTJ get the same as the exit polls, Shas are slightly underestimate (and most of their voters are not really Haredi), and Yisrael Beitenu are slightly overestimated
I heard this from a Israeli pollster.
are you sure they don't weigh the polls in Israel to counteract this fact?



Maybe they do, I can only talk about the results that are published.

Though now that you brought up the topic I think the problem might be related to the direct elections. (there were some weird results in the polling in 96, 99, and 2003)

I think I might have heard this regarding the 2001 election.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2012, 12:46:38 pm »

There is no flippin' way McCain won the Jewish vote in NYC. End of story.
any sane person who looks at the numbers will relize there is a very good chance that McCain won the NYC Jewish vote.  McCain won almost every single majority Jewish ED and did very well in many other EDs that had a lot of Jews

If you don't see the possibility that McCain won the NYC Jewish vote either didn't look at the numbers or are don't know math.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2012, 01:40:13 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 02:46:26 pm by NY Jew »

Note that if McCain won an ED with a few thousand votes in Brooklyn he lost Jews in most parts of Manhattan by a landslide. You have to count Jews who vote against your candidate and aren't part of your community, too, rather than just look at the few neighborhoods you know best and say "he did pretty well here, so I bet I can assume he won across the city."
just for the record Orthodox Jews + Russian Jews are over half NYC's Jewish population.

even in Manhattan McCain did much better amongst Jews then he did amongst California Jews.

some of McCains best areas in Manhattan were only because of the Jewish vote and clearly show he won the Jewish vote big in those areas.

there is no doubt that McCain won the Jewish votes in both the LES and WH.  he probably pulled at least 30% of the Jewish vote on the UWS and UES.  On the UWS I would guess at least 60% of McCains vote came from Jews.


now add to this McCain won the Jewish votes in Riverdale, Williamsburg, Borough Park, Flatbush, Bensehurst, Crown Heights, Jamacia Estates, Kew Garden Hills, Far Rockway ext.

and it's clear from this that the Jewish vote was a lot closer then you think.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2012, 02:59:27 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 03:08:13 pm by NY Jew »

my low estimate of the Jewish vote

a few more neighborhoods

on the the Rockway Peninsula (FR, Bayswater, and Belle Harbor)
2,500-250

Lower East Side (very possibly need to add a few hundred more votes for McCain and/or take away some from Obama)
1,000-300

Williamsburg (very possible that a decent number of that Obama numbers are really Hispanic this area has one of the worst voter turnouts in the city)

5,200-1,040
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NY Jew
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2012, 03:01:43 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
just to clarify
those numbers were my estimate of only the jewish vote.

the problem is that different communities have very different voting habits (turn out is going to be very different in different Orthodox communities)
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NY Jew
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2012, 03:11:57 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2012, 03:30:34 pm by NY Jew »

Who cares? Just, who freakin' cares? You're looking way too into this thing. You can believe whatever you want, but the fact of the matter is that a majority of Jews have voted Democrat for decades. I don't care if you think Jews like me aren't Jews because we aren't that religious.
do you know how to read because all I said was the polls didn't count the types of the population that demographically speaking are not like you at all.

you do know that Jews who demographically speaking voted for McCain most likley live in Jewish enclaves and the Jews that voted for Obama most likely live areas that are mixed.

now look up the term clustering. and you'll see why the exit polls were worthless.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2012, 03:15:14 pm »

just for the record so far I have this as the undercounted Jewish vote
14,157-2,089
and in NYC 11,400-1,890
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NY Jew
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2012, 10:44:02 pm »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
understand the fact that the turnout rates between different Orthodox communities drastically differ from one another and need to be worked out differently.

I repeat there is a drastic difference between different Orthodox communities in many ways and each needs to be calculated individually. 

for example here are the breakdowns you want for the most McCain ED in different Jewish neighborhoods in NYC and you'll see why this can't be averaged out.

McCains best ed in Far Rockway 524 votes for McCain, 43 for Obama
18+ breakdown
758 whites
13 blacks
9 hispanics
2 asians
1 other
McCains best ed in Borough Park 322 votes for McCain, 8 for Obama
673 whites
8 hispanics
McCains best ed in Flatbush (Midwood-Gravesend) 364 votes for McCain, 37 for Obama
615 whites
4 hispanics
5 asians
McCains best ed in Williamsburg 211 votes for McCain, 22 for Obama, 1 for other
904 whites
2 blacks
36 hispanics
4 others
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NY Jew
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2012, 12:58:38 pm »

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.

There are 500,000+ Orthodox Jews in NYC per NY Jew. He's at about 5% of them so far.
how would you have me do this.  I'm purposely doing this by neighborhood so any of you doubters could check my work for your self and see if you think it's accurate.

besides I'm way over 5% now. thanks to children and the fact that I already did the neighborhood with the worst turnout rates in the city.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2012, 12:21:19 am »

You need to find the population for those areas too so we can estimate what percent of orthodox turn out.  Then, we can take a statewide projection and start empirically testing your claim here -- or doing a better job than we have so far this thread.  Get me?
the problem is that the many Orthodox communities are unique from one another and the communities could have drastically different turnout%.

what I'm trying to do now is estimate the actual numbers of the Orthodox vote in different areas

ok, then compile this for different orthodox precincts.  The Census has precinct population information, including 18+ statistics.

Right now you're dangerously close to cherry-picking.
understand the fact that the turnout rates between different Orthodox communities drastically differ from one another and need to be worked out differently.

I repeat there is a drastic difference between different Orthodox communities in many ways and each needs to be calculated individually. 

for example here are the breakdowns you want for the most McCain ED in different Jewish neighborhoods in NYC and you'll see why this can't be averaged out.

McCains best ed in Far Rockway 524 votes for McCain, 43 for Obama
18+ breakdown
758 whites
13 blacks
9 hispanics
2 asians
1 other
McCains best ed in Borough Park 322 votes for McCain, 8 for Obama
673 whites
8 hispanics
McCains best ed in Flatbush (Midwood-Gravesend) 364 votes for McCain, 37 for Obama
615 whites
4 hispanics
5 asians
McCains best ed in Williamsburg 211 votes for McCain, 22 for Obama, 1 for other
904 whites
2 blacks
36 hispanics
4 others

Yes, and that's why averages exist.  Al is right -- this is not proper electoral analysis.  Also, the Census gives 18+ populations by district too.  You can keep throwing numbers at us, but until you make an effort to contextualize it in a way that can actually be used to test a falsifiable hypothesis, this is all pretty silly.
those were above 18 populations

this is how you do proper electoral analysis (and why my numbers are accurate and polls are almost always wrong when done in the Jewish community)  an intelligent person does electoral analysis by actual numbers not AVGS.


did any one of you nay sayers (who I might add were too foolish to take me seriously when I correctly said Turner was going to win because of marriage) actually look up the election results in the areas I said and check to see if you agreed at all with my estimations of the Jewish vote.

avgs (even when 100% accurate which there is no way these numbers were) don't tell the whole story my numbers if accurate do.


maybe I shouldn't have put this information on this website because obviously people here are not smart enough to know that 20 +1 + 1 + 1 + 2 practically does not mean the same thing as a avg of 5.

PS my electoral analysis led to won of the most shocking defeats the democratic party ever had in NY.  So I wouldn't bash it to much.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2012, 03:10:03 am »

You are currently talking about the 2008 presidential election, not the NY-09 special. The exit polls in question refer to the former election, not the latter.
everything I said here was about the presidential race (which was obvious considering I gave the votes for Obama and McCain)

I only referred to the special election to say that if your going to insult me and say I don't know what I'm doing with out using any actual argument.  I was just reminding you what I was called then.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2012, 03:13:29 am »
« Edited: July 30, 2012, 03:17:19 am by NY Jew »


did any one of you nay sayers (who I might add were too foolish to take me seriously when I correctly said Turner was going to win because of marriage) actually look up the election results in the areas I said and check to see if you agreed at all with my estimations of the Jewish vote.

The Orthodox Jewish vote in 2008 was heavily Republican, as it is in most elections.  This is not new information to most of us.
actually it's all over the place and it depends drastically on the candidate and where their running.


In the 2008 pres election it mathematically impossible for the exit polls in the NE to be accurate with so many McCain voting areas if there was such a low sample size.

can you honestly say that Jewish vote (including Orthodox and Russians) in the NE were not much more for McCain then in it was in the West?


those were above 18 populations

avgs (even when 100% accurate which there is no way these numbers were) don't tell the whole story my numbers if accurate do.

No, they don't.  You're just showing statistics about a bunch of heavily Orthodox precincts, and claiming Jews are more Republican than exit polls and phone polls suggest.  You're skipping a few steps.

that's not at all what I was doing I was trying to calculate the vote of all Orthodox jews in a certain neighborhood.
what I was doing by cherry picking EDs was just to show you how different each Jewish community was in turnout.  the other EDs in the same neighborhoods have similar %s of Orthodox Jews showing up

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in response to the first question because I was insulted first

This is a pretty good example of how not to do electoral analysis.
Al is right -- this is not proper electoral analysis.

everything I said (assuming you actually understood it which based on my "unique" writing style is very possible you didn't) would help you figure out what I'm saying.

depends where and when understand the Orthodox Jewish community is really many different Jewish communities that are in many stats at opposite extremes.  The divergence in behaviors between the avg secular Jew in Connecticut and the avg secular Jew in Suffolk County is next to nothing compared to the divergence in behaviors between the avg Orthodox Jew in Far Rockway and the avg Orthodox Jew in Williamsburg.   I do believe that avgs are important informational tool but only if you know what your doing.  averaging out Orthodox trends with out knowing context is 100% useless. 


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I did a lot more then just correctly predict the outcome in that race on these forum (not that I'm going to say what I did on the internet to a bunch of liberals)
besides I was referring to a different campaign that I worked on.

Though I do regret saying anything because I appreciate my anonymity.



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NY Jew
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2012, 09:25:51 am »
« Edited: July 30, 2012, 01:21:06 pm by NY Jew »


can you honestly say that Jewish vote (including Orthodox and Russians) in the NE were not much more for McCain then in it was in the West?

No, I imagine it was more Republican.  Can you stop ascribing me arguments I'm not making and start actually running the analysis required to soundly prove or reject your hypothesis?
but that was the whole proof that the numbers were false
I'll respond to the rest of your post later
then you didn't understand my point from the beginning
look at this
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf
here is my basic argument
1. the sample size was only 952 people for the whole country (page 4) (so if the Orthodox vote was accurate there wasn't enough of a non Orthodox Jewish vote in the NE to counteract the NY strong McCain vote)
2. page 14 shows that the West voted more for McCain then the NE.



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NY Jew
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2012, 09:32:31 am »

Here's what you need to do.  Find a decent representation of Orthodox communities, like a regression model that extrapolates to a theoretical 100% Orthodox community using as many data points (representative, varied Orthodox communities as you can.)  Use that to estimate what percent of Orthodox turn out, and how their votes break down.  You can then use statewide Jewish results from exit polls.  With those sets of information, you can estimate what percentage of non-Orthodox Jews would have to be Democratic voters for the exit polls to be accurate.  This is tricky and may involve small data sets, but dude, it is still better than throwing out numbers and saying "this seems wrong" like you're doing right now.

You seem to have a lot of nervous energy about this issue...dedicate that toward testing this in a sound way and you may prove yourself probabilistically right.  But short of that, this topic is kinda silly season.

what I was trying to do was to approximate the actual number of the Orthodox vote in the NE and I was just working community by community.  (the Jewish vote in NYS was to small a sample size for the exit polls (which also implies that it underestimated the NYS Jewish McCain vote))
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NY Jew
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2012, 11:47:06 pm »

but that was the whole proof that the numbers were false
I'll respond to the rest of your post later
then you didn't understand my point from the beginning
look at this
http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Archive/N-Jewish_American_Voting_Solomon_Project_2012_Main_Report.pdf
here is my basic argument
1. the sample size was only 952 people for the whole country (page 4) (so if the Orthodox vote was accurate there wasn't enough of a non Orthodox Jewish vote in the NE to counteract the NY strong McCain vote)
2. page 14 shows that the West voted more for McCain then the NE.

Your basic argument is that you think the Orthodox vote must mean that Northeastern Jews are more conservative overall, and because polls find otherwise, the polls must be undercounting the Orthodox.  That's a reasonable hypothesis.  The problem is that you're not testing it in a scientifically sound way -- or really testing it all, so much as searching for evidence to support your hypothesis.

what I'm doing is going through different Orthodox (and soon also Russian communities) to estimate the actual vote (though I'm also trying to use low estimates for the most part) of conservative Jewish demographics in the NE based on the actual results so we can then figure out (assuming my number is correct) how much the liberal Jewish demographics would have to vote to have the NE numbers meet the actual number in the exit polls for the NE.

The reason I'm working so slowly is because 1 time constraints and 2. to give someone the ability to argue with my estimates for a Jewish neighborhood.

when I'm finished with adding up Jewish neighborhoods (I most likely am going to ignore those demographics in some areas with not that many Orthodox Jews because even though they also voted for McCain it would be almost impossible to accurately guess how many Orthodox Jews voted so I'll assume they didn't vote (because it's I don't think by that point it will make a difference))

I don't see if I'm doing this neighborhood by neighborhood and then adding it up why I need to include census info.

all we have to do when I'm done is figure out approximately how many non Orthodox/Russian Jews voted in the NE and we'll have the information your seeking.  Figuring that out is irrelevant to the population in individual Orthodox areas because we can figure that out based on using Jewish demographics studies.  Using this method I can't figure out why Orthodox turnout will ever be necessary.

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assuming I do what I said above (and I have no way of knowing the typical secular American Jewish turnout) is there anything I'm missing.

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according to this site (this site is easier to read then the one it quoted from)

(this underestimates NYC, this is because it uses 2002 Federation numbers for NYC and not the recently released numbers)
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html

total Jewish population in the country 6,588,065 in 2011 (these numbers can also be nitpicked but lets assume their accurate)
this is not of sample size
total Jewish population in NYS 1,635,020
these are of sample size
NE 3,157,670
West 1,613,225
South 1,107,140
MW 710,030

(considering over half of all Orthodox Jews in America are living in NYS I think my point is very clear)

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