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| | | |-+  Australia: Costello succeeds Howard, 2007
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Author Topic: Australia: Costello succeeds Howard, 2007  (Read 717 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 12, 2012, 08:57:26 am »
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So what happens here? Assuming things go similarly to RL do we see a Liberal majority in 2010?
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Smid
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2012, 04:53:50 pm »
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Before or after the election? Rudd had the smallest first term majority, so a change prior to the election may have changedthe result. After the election, well, Rudd's popularity was always going to reach those astronomical levels - that wasn't because of Nelson, so if Costello took over after the election, I think it unlikely he's less at the 2010 election. If, however, he bided his time, and challenged Turnbull, Hockey and Abbott probably would not have entered, and even if they did, I think he would have won the leadership, and I think a Costello-led Coalition would have quite comfortably won the election.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2012, 05:19:42 pm »
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After the election. Not much point in being a one-termer, is there (why Howard never made that point boggles the mind)?

So things go as they did IRL except with Costello in Abbott's place come '09?  2004 result all over again, over/under 3-4 seats either way?
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Smid
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2012, 06:23:13 pm »
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I think the 2010 election would really have been focused on the economy, as was the 2004 election, so I believe it would have played out quite similarly, except perhaps with economic growth for the purposes of employment and job security playing out instead of interest rates and cost of living pressures. Either way, mortgage belt/outer suburban electorates are the areas where the Coalition will perform best, perhaps less strongly in Queensland and New South Wales, but more strongly in Victoria. Isaacs and Holt become quite marginal, Deakin and Corangamite would probably be Lib gains, and La Trobe wouldn't have been a Lib loss, and Dunkley would have been less marginal. McEwan problaby still would have fallen - there was a popular retiring member there, but more to the point, massive demographic change led to that result.

Costello is less popular further north, and particularly north of the Tweed, but the toxic state governments in those seats may not have changed much. The more moderate Costello may have been able to buck the trend in inner-city Brisbane, but that's more of a possibility than a probability - I think therefore Arch Bevis might have just managed to hang on, and Wayne Swan, while still marginal, won't have quite as much of a fright on election night.

Western Australia would have still voted on the mining tax, so probably no changes there.

NSW is tough - from what I hear, some of the Liberal central campaign was not well organised. That said, Lindsay would have been ripe for the picking given the focus on the economy.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2012, 06:34:17 pm »
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So something like 85/52 v. 62/47?

When you say more moderate, do you mean generally or on social issues? I thought Costello is more economically hawkish than Abbott and Abbott more of a social hawk than Costello, though that could be totally off.

Even more fun: the debates.

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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Smid
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2012, 06:43:02 pm »
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So something like 85/52 v. 62/47?

When you say more moderate, do you mean generally or on social issues? I thought Costello is more economically hawkish than Abbott and Abbott more of a social hawk than Costello, though that could be totally off.

Even more fun: the debates.



Yes - more moderate on social issues, and even then, I think it's more perception than reality. Getup! and Labor wouldn't have been able to be as obsessively personally negative in their advertising compared to their advertising against Abbott.
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2012, 06:45:52 pm »
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Rudd would've beaten Costello even heavier than Howard. I think Howard narrowed slightly due to incumbency.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2012, 06:52:53 pm »
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So what does the Costello government look like? Differ much from what Abbott's priorities will be next year?
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2012, 06:54:05 pm »
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Rudd would've beaten Costello even heavier than Howard. I think Howard narrowed slightly due to incumbency.

To be clear, I meant after the 2007 election.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2012, 07:11:26 pm »
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Well, I think it'd be like Howard's government but with more moderation on social issues.
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