If Romney had not run, who would have won the Republican nomination?

[Lincoln Republican]

Your thoughts?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Perry.

Why bother to ask?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hard to say.  With moneybags out of the race, several of the people who didn't run would have run.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Hard to say.  With moneybags out of the race, several of the people who didn't run would have run.

Indeed. Huckabee and Barbour could have thrown their hats into the ring.

[tmthforu94]

It wouldn't be anyone who actually ran in 2012.

My guess would be Huckabee, as he would have had a very clear path to the nomination.

[NHI]

Huckabee would be the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

Barbour had some serious pardon problems even before the end of his term:

link

I don't think Huckabee was going to run anyway.  Romney wasn't the reason why Huck chose not to run.  I don't think Barbour, Daniels, Huckabee, or Palin would have run even with no Romney.  Jindal, Pence, and Ryan probably wouldn't have run either, but it's less certain.  Thune may well have run if no Romney.  Jeb Bush and Chris Christie *might* have done it.  Certainly, there would have been a bigger draft effort for one or the other of them, and remember that Christie very nearly changed his mind at the last minute and decided to run, even after all his denials.

If none of the aforementioned names had run, then I don't know.  Maybe Pawlenty?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Romney definitely didn't scare anyone out of the race. The people who didn't run, didn't want Romney as the nominee and STILL don't. So I think either Huntsman or Perry gets it. Jon Huntsman didn't catch fire because there was already a handsome mormon governor running. Perry was the only one that the Romney Team believed had a chance to beat them.

[Comrade Funk]

Christie or Jeb Bush. Maybe Thune.

[Lincoln Republican]

How would Santorum have done?

[Mr. Morden]

Romney definitely didn't scare anyone out of the race. The people who didn't run, didn't want Romney as the nominee and STILL don't.

I don't think that's exactly right.  Without Romney, there would have been a gaping hole in the race where there should be an establishment party man who the big party donors can contribute their $ to (and who can then use that money to destroy his opponents, like Romney did).  If folks like Christie really came as close to running as they seemed to, then the lack of Romney might have been enough to tip the balance in favor of running.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think Thune or someone like him jumps in and probably wins. Huntsman might have had a better chance amid the various collapsing campaigns.

[Bull Moose Base]

Probably Pawlenty if he still ran but maybe Gingrich since he wouldn't have been bombed with negative ads.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Romney definitely didn't scare anyone out of the race. The people who didn't run, didn't want Romney as the nominee and STILL don't.

I don't think that's exactly right.  Without Romney, there would have been a gaping hole in the race where there should be an establishment party man who the big party donors can contribute their $ to (and who can then use that money to destroy his opponents, like Romney did).  If folks like Christie really came as close to running as they seemed to, then the lack of Romney might have been enough to tip the balance in favor of running.

The establishment candidates would have been Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney definitely didn't scare anyone out of the race. The people who didn't run, didn't want Romney as the nominee and STILL don't.

I don't think that's exactly right.  Without Romney, there would have been a gaping hole in the race where there should be an establishment party man who the big party donors can contribute their $ to (and who can then use that money to destroy his opponents, like Romney did).  If folks like Christie really came as close to running as they seemed to, then the lack of Romney might have been enough to tip the balance in favor of running.

The establishment candidates would have been Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty.

Maybe.  I mean, sure, if no one else gets in the race, but they wouldn't have started out with the kind of lead in either NH or nationally that Romney started out with.  Even though early polls don't "matter", psychologically, the fact that no establishment candidate would have started out with an early polling lead (and wouldn't have been raising quite the same $ that Romney did IRL) would have made it look like the race was more open to a newcomer than it was IRL.  Maybe the only late entrant would have been Perry, as IRL, but who knows.  Butterflies can do strange things.

[President von Cat]

I don't think Tim Pawlenty would have won the nomination under any circumstance, even if his competition was only Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich. The guy is just a bland, forgettable loser. I'm sure he'll make an electrifying Secretary of Agriculture though.

[Supersonic]

Huckabee if he ran would have been the nominee as the only 'runner up' from 2008. Perry would have crashed and burned. Huntsman would have got more momentum and carry several states including New Hampshire but ultimately lose to Huck. If Huckabee doesn't run, then the nomination is truly 'up in the air' and a brokered convention could have been a possibility.

[morgieb]

Who knows?

[Phony Moderate]

Daniels would have been the establishment candidate. Not sure if he'd have won the nomination though. Perry may well have done better actually - it was Romney's effective attack ads against him that brought him down as much as his own gaffes.